China’s Q2 2026 real GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 5.0% in Q1, missing consensus and marking the weakest pace since late 2022 amid contracting fixed-asset investment, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued retail sales that rose just 0.6% year-over-year in July. External demand has provided offset through resilient exports and AI-related manufacturing, while domestic indicators including July industrial output at 4.5% and PMI readings near or below 50 signal uneven momentum. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 4.3-4.6% band as traders price in limited fiscal stimulus following the July Politburo meeting and the 15th Five-Year Plan’s consumption targets, tempered by persistent weakness in household spending and capacity utilization. September data releases on retail sales, industrial production, and fixed-asset investment, due shortly, represent the next key inputs ahead of the October Q3 GDP print.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4.3-4.6% 58%
4.6-4.9% 25%
4.0-4.3% 17.6%
3.7-4.0% 1.9%
$36,111 Vol.
$36,111 Vol.
19 out 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
2%
4.0-4.3%
18%
4.3-4.6%
58%
4.6-4.9%
25%
4.9-5.2%
1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 58%
4.6-4.9% 25%
4.0-4.3% 17.6%
3.7-4.0% 1.9%
$36,111 Vol.
$36,111 Vol.
19 out 2026
<3.4%
$1,362 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,496 Vol.
2%
4.0-4.3%
$2,818 Vol.
18%
4.3-4.6%
$13,769 Vol.
58%
4.6-4.9%
$9,221 Vol.
25%
4.9-5.2%
$3,776 Vol.
1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,545 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 real GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 5.0% in Q1, missing consensus and marking the weakest pace since late 2022 amid contracting fixed-asset investment, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued retail sales that rose just 0.6% year-over-year in July. External demand has provided offset through resilient exports and AI-related manufacturing, while domestic indicators including July industrial output at 4.5% and PMI readings near or below 50 signal uneven momentum. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 4.3-4.6% band as traders price in limited fiscal stimulus following the July Politburo meeting and the 15th Five-Year Plan’s consumption targets, tempered by persistent weakness in household spending and capacity utilization. September data releases on retail sales, industrial production, and fixed-asset investment, due shortly, represent the next key inputs ahead of the October Q3 GDP print.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado Aberto: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$36,111Data de Término
20 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 real GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 5.0% in Q1, missing consensus and marking the weakest pace since late 2022 amid contracting fixed-asset investment, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued retail sales that rose just 0.6% year-over-year in July. External demand has provided offset through resilient exports and AI-related manufacturing, while domestic indicators including July industrial output at 4.5% and PMI readings near or below 50 signal uneven momentum. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 4.3-4.6% band as traders price in limited fiscal stimulus following the July Politburo meeting and the 15th Five-Year Plan’s consumption targets, tempered by persistent weakness in household spending and capacity utilization. September data releases on retail sales, industrial production, and fixed-asset investment, due shortly, represent the next key inputs ahead of the October Q3 GDP print.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$36,111Data de Término
20 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 real GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 5.0% in Q1, missing consensus and marking the weakest pace since late 2022 amid contracting fixed-asset investment, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued retail sales that rose just 0.6% year-over-year in July. External demand has provided offset through resilient exports and AI-related manufacturing, while domestic indicators including July industrial output at 4.5% and PMI readings near or below 50 signal uneven momentum. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 4.3-4.6% band as traders price in limited fiscal stimulus following the July Politburo meeting and the 15th Five-Year Plan’s consumption targets, tempered by persistent weakness in household spending and capacity utilization. September data releases on retail sales, industrial production, and fixed-asset investment, due shortly, represent the next key inputs ahead of the October Q3 GDP print.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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