**Traders assign an 84% probability to "No" for Carles Puigdemont returning to Spain in 2026 primarily because Spain’s judicial process remains stalled despite the July 2026 CJEU ruling upholding the amnesty law’s compatibility with EU rules.** The Supreme Court continues to exclude his malversation charges from amnesty on grounds of alleged personal enrichment, keeping the national arrest warrant active. The Constitutional Court is only beginning deliberations around late September 2026 and is unlikely to resolve the appeal before year-end, after which the Supreme Court retains final interpretive authority. Optimistic scenarios among Junts allies and government sources now point to a possible safe return no earlier than autumn 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. Puigdemont’s brief 2024 appearance in Barcelona and ongoing exile in Belgium underscore the persistent legal and political friction, with no verified developments indicating an imminent, risk-free reentry before December 31.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado17% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
17% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.**Traders assign an 84% probability to "No" for Carles Puigdemont returning to Spain in 2026 primarily because Spain’s judicial process remains stalled despite the July 2026 CJEU ruling upholding the amnesty law’s compatibility with EU rules.** The Supreme Court continues to exclude his malversation charges from amnesty on grounds of alleged personal enrichment, keeping the national arrest warrant active. The Constitutional Court is only beginning deliberations around late September 2026 and is unlikely to resolve the appeal before year-end, after which the Supreme Court retains final interpretive authority. Optimistic scenarios among Junts allies and government sources now point to a possible safe return no earlier than autumn 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. Puigdemont’s brief 2024 appearance in Barcelona and ongoing exile in Belgium underscore the persistent legal and political friction, with no verified developments indicating an imminent, risk-free reentry before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$2,811Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.**Traders assign an 84% probability to "No" for Carles Puigdemont returning to Spain in 2026 primarily because Spain’s judicial process remains stalled despite the July 2026 CJEU ruling upholding the amnesty law’s compatibility with EU rules.** The Supreme Court continues to exclude his malversation charges from amnesty on grounds of alleged personal enrichment, keeping the national arrest warrant active. The Constitutional Court is only beginning deliberations around late September 2026 and is unlikely to resolve the appeal before year-end, after which the Supreme Court retains final interpretive authority. Optimistic scenarios among Junts allies and government sources now point to a possible safe return no earlier than autumn 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. Puigdemont’s brief 2024 appearance in Barcelona and ongoing exile in Belgium underscore the persistent legal and political friction, with no verified developments indicating an imminent, risk-free reentry before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Volume
$2,811Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 84% probability to "No" for Carles Puigdemont returning to Spain in 2026 primarily because Spain’s judicial process remains stalled despite the July 2026 CJEU ruling upholding the amnesty law’s compatibility with EU rules.** The Supreme Court continues to exclude his malversation charges from amnesty on grounds of alleged personal enrichment, keeping the national arrest warrant active. The Constitutional Court is only beginning deliberations around late September 2026 and is unlikely to resolve the appeal before year-end, after which the Supreme Court retains final interpretive authority. Optimistic scenarios among Junts allies and government sources now point to a possible safe return no earlier than autumn 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. Puigdemont’s brief 2024 appearance in Barcelona and ongoing exile in Belgium underscore the persistent legal and political friction, with no verified developments indicating an imminent, risk-free reentry before December 31.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions