Recent polling shows Augusto Cury (Avante) stabilizing near 6-7% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, after a late-August surge to double digits fueled by social media growth and television exposure that drew voters seeking an alternative to the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro contest. Latest surveys from Quaest, Nexus, Datafolha, and others place him third but well behind the leaders, with support concentrated among younger, educated, and independent voters while the two frontrunners have consolidated the remaining electorate. His minimal campaign spending and questions over the durability of online-driven gains contribute to the narrow spread between the 4-6% and 6%+ buckets. Further movement could follow final-week debates, turnout patterns among non-polarized blocs, or shifts in undecided voters.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4-6% 29%
<1% 25%
2-4% 22%
1-2% 15%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
<1%
25%
1-2%
15%
2-4%
22%
4-6%
29%
6%+
30%
4-6% 29%
<1% 25%
2-4% 22%
1-2% 15%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
<1%
$26 Vol.
25%
1-2%
$20 Vol.
15%
2-4%
$57 Vol.
22%
4-6%
$55 Vol.
29%
6%+
$49 Vol.
30%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Augusto Cury (Avante) stabilizing near 6-7% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, after a late-August surge to double digits fueled by social media growth and television exposure that drew voters seeking an alternative to the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro contest. Latest surveys from Quaest, Nexus, Datafolha, and others place him third but well behind the leaders, with support concentrated among younger, educated, and independent voters while the two frontrunners have consolidated the remaining electorate. His minimal campaign spending and questions over the durability of online-driven gains contribute to the narrow spread between the 4-6% and 6%+ buckets. Further movement could follow final-week debates, turnout patterns among non-polarized blocs, or shifts in undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ET
Volume
$207Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Augusto Cury (Avante) stabilizing near 6-7% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, after a late-August surge to double digits fueled by social media growth and television exposure that drew voters seeking an alternative to the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro contest. Latest surveys from Quaest, Nexus, Datafolha, and others place him third but well behind the leaders, with support concentrated among younger, educated, and independent voters while the two frontrunners have consolidated the remaining electorate. His minimal campaign spending and questions over the durability of online-driven gains contribute to the narrow spread between the 4-6% and 6%+ buckets. Further movement could follow final-week debates, turnout patterns among non-polarized blocs, or shifts in undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$207Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Augusto Cury (Avante) stabilizing near 6-7% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, after a late-August surge to double digits fueled by social media growth and television exposure that drew voters seeking an alternative to the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro contest. Latest surveys from Quaest, Nexus, Datafolha, and others place him third but well behind the leaders, with support concentrated among younger, educated, and independent voters while the two frontrunners have consolidated the remaining electorate. His minimal campaign spending and questions over the durability of online-driven gains contribute to the narrow spread between the 4-6% and 6%+ buckets. Further movement could follow final-week debates, turnout patterns among non-polarized blocs, or shifts in undecided voters.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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Sim
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Lula vencerá com 44% ou mais dos votos válidos no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?
44%
Sim
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Frequently Asked Questions