Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 21% and the SPD further back. This multi-party closeness, combined with the mixed-member proportional system’s 78 direct constituencies and 5% threshold, creates uncertainty over overhang and compensatory mandates that determine final size above the 130-seat floor. Recent developments, including the lowered voting age to 16, a consolidated ballot format, and campaign focus on housing and public services, have not produced decisive shifts in party support or constituency projections. Traders therefore see limited separation among outcomes in the 143–163+ range, with the parliament’s final scale hinging on last-minute turnout patterns and direct-mandate results across Berlin’s 78 districts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado163+ 25%
<143 20%
148–152 20%
153–157 20%
NOVO
NOVO
20 set 2026
<143
20%
143–147
18%
148–152
20%
153–157
20%
158–162
18%
163+
25%
163+ 25%
<143 20%
148–152 20%
153–157 20%
NOVO
NOVO
20 set 2026
<143
$0 Vol.
20%
143–147
$0 Vol.
18%
148–152
$0 Vol.
20%
153–157
$0 Vol.
20%
158–162
$0 Vol.
18%
163+
$0 Vol.
25%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 21% and the SPD further back. This multi-party closeness, combined with the mixed-member proportional system’s 78 direct constituencies and 5% threshold, creates uncertainty over overhang and compensatory mandates that determine final size above the 130-seat floor. Recent developments, including the lowered voting age to 16, a consolidated ballot format, and campaign focus on housing and public services, have not produced decisive shifts in party support or constituency projections. Traders therefore see limited separation among outcomes in the 143–163+ range, with the parliament’s final scale hinging on last-minute turnout patterns and direct-mandate results across Berlin’s 78 districts.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 21% and the SPD further back. This multi-party closeness, combined with the mixed-member proportional system’s 78 direct constituencies and 5% threshold, creates uncertainty over overhang and compensatory mandates that determine final size above the 130-seat floor. Recent developments, including the lowered voting age to 16, a consolidated ballot format, and campaign focus on housing and public services, have not produced decisive shifts in party support or constituency projections. Traders therefore see limited separation among outcomes in the 143–163+ range, with the parliament’s final scale hinging on last-minute turnout patterns and direct-mandate results across Berlin’s 78 districts.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 21% and the SPD further back. This multi-party closeness, combined with the mixed-member proportional system’s 78 direct constituencies and 5% threshold, creates uncertainty over overhang and compensatory mandates that determine final size above the 130-seat floor. Recent developments, including the lowered voting age to 16, a consolidated ballot format, and campaign focus on housing and public services, have not produced decisive shifts in party support or constituency projections. Traders therefore see limited separation among outcomes in the 143–163+ range, with the parliament’s final scale hinging on last-minute turnout patterns and direct-mandate results across Berlin’s 78 districts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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