Recent inflation data showing acceleration to around 6.3% by late August, alongside sustained lending growth and fiscal expansion risks, have reinforced trader expectations for a cautious stance at the Bank of Russia's September 11 meeting. Analysts surveyed by market outlets largely project a hold at the current 14% key rate as the base case, citing the need to monitor price pressures and avoid premature easing after prior gradual cuts. A modest 25 basis point reduction remains possible as a signaling option but faces headwinds from one-off summer price factors and budget considerations. This dynamic underpins the consensus favoring no change over further easing, with an outright hike viewed as unlikely absent major new shocks.