Recent inflation data showing a rise to 6.3% in August, driven by elevated fuel prices from supply disruptions and temporary production capacity constraints, prompted the Bank of Russia to hold its key rate at 14% on September 11 after ten consecutive cuts. Officials highlighted accelerated underlying price pressures at a 5-6% annualized pace and persistent inflation expectations, while noting moderate economic growth in the third quarter. With the next decision scheduled for October 23, traders assign the highest probability to no change, reflecting caution over second-round effects from fuel costs and fiscal developments, though a further modest cut remains plausible if price pressures moderate as projected in the baseline scenario targeting 4% inflation by 2027.