The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting on September 2, 2026, anchors trader sentiment against a rate hike this year. Persistent energy-driven inflation near 3% year-over-year, fueled by the Middle East conflict, has lifted upside risks, yet core measures remain near the 2% target while U.S. tariffs introduce downside growth uncertainty. Economic data show a broadening recovery with Q2 GDP expanding 3.3%, supporting the view that current policy remains appropriate without overheating pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with analysts and futures pricing limited scope for tightening before 2027 absent sharper inflation spillovers or stronger labor-market gains. The October 28 Monetary Policy Report represents the next key catalyst for reassessment.