The Bank of Canada’s September 2 decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting underpins the 89.6% market-implied odds of no change on October 28. Elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict have lifted headline CPI to 3.0% year-over-year in July, raising upside inflation risks, while new U.S. tariffs introduce downside growth uncertainty and weigh on business investment. With the economy rebounding modestly in Q2 yet core measures remaining near 2%, the BoC is positioned to await fresh data and its updated Monetary Policy Report before adjusting policy. Traders price only modest odds of a 25-basis-point move either way, consistent with analysts’ consensus for an extended pause through year-end absent clearer signals on inflation persistence or tariff impacts. The next CPI release on September 14 and October meeting represent key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSem Alteração 88.8%
Aumento de 25 pontos base 5.4%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 2.4%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos base <1%
$50,986 Vol.
$50,986 Vol.
27 out 2026
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos base
<1%
Aumento de 25 pontos base
5%
Sem Alteração
89%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
2%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Sem Alteração 88.8%
Aumento de 25 pontos base 5.4%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 2.4%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos base <1%
$50,986 Vol.
$50,986 Vol.
27 out 2026
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos base
$3,709 Vol.
<1%
Aumento de 25 pontos base
$11,229 Vol.
5%
Sem Alteração
$24,039 Vol.
89%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$8,144 Vol.
2%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
$3,864 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.The Bank of Canada’s September 2 decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting underpins the 89.6% market-implied odds of no change on October 28. Elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict have lifted headline CPI to 3.0% year-over-year in July, raising upside inflation risks, while new U.S. tariffs introduce downside growth uncertainty and weigh on business investment. With the economy rebounding modestly in Q2 yet core measures remaining near 2%, the BoC is positioned to await fresh data and its updated Monetary Policy Report before adjusting policy. Traders price only modest odds of a 25-basis-point move either way, consistent with analysts’ consensus for an extended pause through year-end absent clearer signals on inflation persistence or tariff impacts. The next CPI release on September 14 and October meeting represent key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volume
$50,986Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.The Bank of Canada’s September 2 decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting underpins the 89.6% market-implied odds of no change on October 28. Elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict have lifted headline CPI to 3.0% year-over-year in July, raising upside inflation risks, while new U.S. tariffs introduce downside growth uncertainty and weigh on business investment. With the economy rebounding modestly in Q2 yet core measures remaining near 2%, the BoC is positioned to await fresh data and its updated Monetary Policy Report before adjusting policy. Traders price only modest odds of a 25-basis-point move either way, consistent with analysts’ consensus for an extended pause through year-end absent clearer signals on inflation persistence or tariff impacts. The next CPI release on September 14 and October meeting represent key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$50,986Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s September 2 decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting underpins the 89.6% market-implied odds of no change on October 28. Elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict have lifted headline CPI to 3.0% year-over-year in July, raising upside inflation risks, while new U.S. tariffs introduce downside growth uncertainty and weigh on business investment. With the economy rebounding modestly in Q2 yet core measures remaining near 2%, the BoC is positioned to await fresh data and its updated Monetary Policy Report before adjusting policy. Traders price only modest odds of a 25-basis-point move either way, consistent with analysts’ consensus for an extended pause through year-end absent clearer signals on inflation persistence or tariff impacts. The next CPI release on September 14 and October meeting represent key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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