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icon for Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para Reconquête?
Política·França

Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para Reconquête?

icon for Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para Reconquête?
Política·França

Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para Reconquête?

Knafo

8% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Knafo

8% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve according to which of Éric Zemmour and Sarah Knafo officially runs as a candidate representing Reconquête in the 2027 French presidential election. If Éric Zemmour runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Zemmour”. If Sarah Knafo runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Knafo”. If neither runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve 50-50. To count for resolution, the individual must be included on the official candidate list for the first round published by the French Constitutional Council, and must be the presidential candidate designated or endorsed by Reconquête. If Reconquête does not field a presidential candidate, or fields a candidate other than Éric Zemmour or Sarah Knafo, this market will resolve 50-50. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council and official information from Reconquête; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sarah Knafo has repeatedly declared she will not seek the Reconquête nomination for the 2027 French presidential election and has described Éric Zemmour as the party’s “natural candidate,” most recently in late August interviews tied to her book release and at the September party summer university. These statements followed earlier speculation fueled by her strong media presence, her 10.4 percent first-round showing in the 2026 Paris mayoral race, and her role in program development and economic messaging. Zemmour, the party founder and 2022 nominee, continues to shape its core identity themes while preparing a possible formal announcement before year-end. Traders therefore assign him overwhelming probability as the standard-bearer, viewing Knafo’s positioning as complementary rather than competitive within the small movement.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve according to which of Éric Zemmour and Sarah Knafo officially runs as a candidate representing Reconquête in the 2027 French presidential election. If Éric Zemmour runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Zemmour”. If Sarah Knafo runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Knafo”. If neither runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve 50-50.

To count for resolution, the individual must be included on the official candidate list for the first round published by the French Constitutional Council, and must be the presidential candidate designated or endorsed by Reconquête. If Reconquête does not field a presidential candidate, or fields a candidate other than Éric Zemmour or Sarah Knafo, this market will resolve 50-50.

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council and official information from Reconquête; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve according to which of Éric Zemmour and Sarah Knafo officially runs as a candidate representing Reconquête in the 2027 French presidential election. If Éric Zemmour runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Zemmour”. If Sarah Knafo runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Knafo”. If neither runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve 50-50. To count for resolution, the individual must be included on the official candidate list for the first round published by the French Constitutional Council, and must be the presidential candidate designated or endorsed by Reconquête. If Reconquête does not field a presidential candidate, or fields a candidate other than Éric Zemmour or Sarah Knafo, this market will resolve 50-50. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council and official information from Reconquête; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$408
Data de Término
18 abr 2027
Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve according to which of Éric Zemmour and Sarah Knafo officially runs as a candidate representing Reconquête in the 2027 French presidential election. If Éric Zemmour runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Zemmour”. If Sarah Knafo runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Knafo”. If neither runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve 50-50. To count for resolution, the individual must be included on the official candidate list for the first round published by the French Constitutional Council, and must be the presidential candidate designated or endorsed by Reconquête. If Reconquête does not field a presidential candidate, or fields a candidate other than Éric Zemmour or Sarah Knafo, this market will resolve 50-50. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council and official information from Reconquête; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sarah Knafo has repeatedly declared she will not seek the Reconquête nomination for the 2027 French presidential election and has described Éric Zemmour as the party’s “natural candidate,” most recently in late August interviews tied to her book release and at the September party summer university. These statements followed earlier speculation fueled by her strong media presence, her 10.4 percent first-round showing in the 2026 Paris mayoral race, and her role in program development and economic messaging. Zemmour, the party founder and 2022 nominee, continues to shape its core identity themes while preparing a possible formal announcement before year-end. Traders therefore assign him overwhelming probability as the standard-bearer, viewing Knafo’s positioning as complementary rather than competitive within the small movement.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve according to which of Éric Zemmour and Sarah Knafo officially runs as a candidate representing Reconquête in the 2027 French presidential election. If Éric Zemmour runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Zemmour”. If Sarah Knafo runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Knafo”. If neither runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve 50-50.

To count for resolution, the individual must be included on the official candidate list for the first round published by the French Constitutional Council, and must be the presidential candidate designated or endorsed by Reconquête. If Reconquête does not field a presidential candidate, or fields a candidate other than Éric Zemmour or Sarah Knafo, this market will resolve 50-50.

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council and official information from Reconquête; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve according to which of Éric Zemmour and Sarah Knafo officially runs as a candidate representing Reconquête in the 2027 French presidential election. If Éric Zemmour runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Zemmour”. If Sarah Knafo runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Knafo”. If neither runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve 50-50. To count for resolution, the individual must be included on the official candidate list for the first round published by the French Constitutional Council, and must be the presidential candidate designated or endorsed by Reconquête. If Reconquête does not field a presidential candidate, or fields a candidate other than Éric Zemmour or Sarah Knafo, this market will resolve 50-50. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council and official information from Reconquête; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$408
Data de Término
18 abr 2027
Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para Reconquête?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eleição Presidencial Francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para o Reconquête?" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para Reconquête?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para Reconquête?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para Reconquête?" is "Eleição Presidencial Francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para o Reconquête?" at just 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: Knafo ou Zemmour para Reconquête?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.