Wisconsin's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee County, where incumbent Gwen Moore has represented the area since 2005 and secured reelection with 74.8% in 2024. Recent primaries on August 11 confirmed Moore as the Democratic nominee after defeating challenger Amy Donahue, while Tim Rogers emerged as the Republican candidate. The district's consistent voting patterns, urban and suburban demographics favoring Democrats, and Moore's long incumbency underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 98.2% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Scenarios that could realistically alter this outcome remain limited to late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$33,516 Wol.
$33,516 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$33,516 Wol.
$33,516 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,352 Wol.
98%
Republican Party
$21,164 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee County, where incumbent Gwen Moore has represented the area since 2005 and secured reelection with 74.8% in 2024. Recent primaries on August 11 confirmed Moore as the Democratic nominee after defeating challenger Amy Donahue, while Tim Rogers emerged as the Republican candidate. The district's consistent voting patterns, urban and suburban demographics favoring Democrats, and Moore's long incumbency underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 98.2% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Scenarios that could realistically alter this outcome remain limited to late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$33,516Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee County, where incumbent Gwen Moore has represented the area since 2005 and secured reelection with 74.8% in 2024. Recent primaries on August 11 confirmed Moore as the Democratic nominee after defeating challenger Amy Donahue, while Tim Rogers emerged as the Republican candidate. The district's consistent voting patterns, urban and suburban demographics favoring Democrats, and Moore's long incumbency underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 98.2% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Scenarios that could realistically alter this outcome remain limited to late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$33,516Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee County, where incumbent Gwen Moore has represented the area since 2005 and secured reelection with 74.8% in 2024. Recent primaries on August 11 confirmed Moore as the Democratic nominee after defeating challenger Amy Donahue, while Tim Rogers emerged as the Republican candidate. The district's consistent voting patterns, urban and suburban demographics favoring Democrats, and Moore's long incumbency underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 98.2% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Scenarios that could realistically alter this outcome remain limited to late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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