The strong trader consensus against a US default by 2027 stems from repeated congressional action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, backed by both parties' recognition that breaching the limit would trigger immediate market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and threats to Treasury obligations. Institutional tools such as extraordinary measures and the priority of debt service in appropriations further reduce near-term risks, consistent with historical patterns of resolution even under divided government. While probabilities above 90 percent reflect this track record, late-session gridlock, prolonged failure to pass continuing resolutions, or severe fiscal shocks from external events could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$15,526 Wol.
$15,526 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$15,526 Wol.
$15,526 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The strong trader consensus against a US default by 2027 stems from repeated congressional action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, backed by both parties' recognition that breaching the limit would trigger immediate market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and threats to Treasury obligations. Institutional tools such as extraordinary measures and the priority of debt service in appropriations further reduce near-term risks, consistent with historical patterns of resolution even under divided government. While probabilities above 90 percent reflect this track record, late-session gridlock, prolonged failure to pass continuing resolutions, or severe fiscal shocks from external events could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$15,526Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The strong trader consensus against a US default by 2027 stems from repeated congressional action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, backed by both parties' recognition that breaching the limit would trigger immediate market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and threats to Treasury obligations. Institutional tools such as extraordinary measures and the priority of debt service in appropriations further reduce near-term risks, consistent with historical patterns of resolution even under divided government. While probabilities above 90 percent reflect this track record, late-session gridlock, prolonged failure to pass continuing resolutions, or severe fiscal shocks from external events could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Wolumen
$15,526Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus against a US default by 2027 stems from repeated congressional action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, backed by both parties' recognition that breaching the limit would trigger immediate market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and threats to Treasury obligations. Institutional tools such as extraordinary measures and the priority of debt service in appropriations further reduce near-term risks, consistent with historical patterns of resolution even under divided government. While probabilities above 90 percent reflect this track record, late-session gridlock, prolonged failure to pass continuing resolutions, or severe fiscal shocks from external events could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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