US policymakers have repeatedly raised the debt ceiling through bipartisan legislation to avert default, reflecting strong institutional incentives to protect Treasury borrowing capacity and global financial stability. With the next major fiscal deadlines likely falling after 2027 under current appropriations patterns, traders assign a 97.2% probability to no default by that date. Historical precedent shows Congress resolving standoffs via continuing resolutions or reconciliation rather than breach. Credible scenarios that could still shift odds include an unprecedented political impasse blocking any agreement or a sudden exogenous shock severely constraining revenue, though both remain low-probability events based on past cycles.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$16,216 Wol.
$16,216 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,216 Wol.
$16,216 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.US policymakers have repeatedly raised the debt ceiling through bipartisan legislation to avert default, reflecting strong institutional incentives to protect Treasury borrowing capacity and global financial stability. With the next major fiscal deadlines likely falling after 2027 under current appropriations patterns, traders assign a 97.2% probability to no default by that date. Historical precedent shows Congress resolving standoffs via continuing resolutions or reconciliation rather than breach. Credible scenarios that could still shift odds include an unprecedented political impasse blocking any agreement or a sudden exogenous shock severely constraining revenue, though both remain low-probability events based on past cycles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,216Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.US policymakers have repeatedly raised the debt ceiling through bipartisan legislation to avert default, reflecting strong institutional incentives to protect Treasury borrowing capacity and global financial stability. With the next major fiscal deadlines likely falling after 2027 under current appropriations patterns, traders assign a 97.2% probability to no default by that date. Historical precedent shows Congress resolving standoffs via continuing resolutions or reconciliation rather than breach. Credible scenarios that could still shift odds include an unprecedented political impasse blocking any agreement or a sudden exogenous shock severely constraining revenue, though both remain low-probability events based on past cycles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Wolumen
$16,216Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US policymakers have repeatedly raised the debt ceiling through bipartisan legislation to avert default, reflecting strong institutional incentives to protect Treasury borrowing capacity and global financial stability. With the next major fiscal deadlines likely falling after 2027 under current appropriations patterns, traders assign a 97.2% probability to no default by that date. Historical precedent shows Congress resolving standoffs via continuing resolutions or reconciliation rather than breach. Credible scenarios that could still shift odds include an unprecedented political impasse blocking any agreement or a sudden exogenous shock severely constraining revenue, though both remain low-probability events based on past cycles.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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