US law under the NDAA and CAATSA bars Turkey from the F-35 program while it retains S-400 systems acquired from Russia in 2019, requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses them plus credible future assurances. In 2026, the Trump administration advanced a roughly $700 million sale of F110 engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter and signaled openness to reviewing F-35 reinstatement, citing improved bilateral ties. However, Turkey’s reported attempts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state stalled by August, leaving the statutory barrier intact. The State Department has confirmed no compliance as of late July, amid congressional opposition and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These factors sustain uncertainty around any near-term reentry, with diplomatic progress on sanctions relief or system removal remaining the central variable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$44,314 Wol.
Jun 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2027
20%
$44,314 Wol.
December 31, 2026
$32,579 Wol.
10%
June 30, 2027
$11,735 Wol.
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US law under the NDAA and CAATSA bars Turkey from the F-35 program while it retains S-400 systems acquired from Russia in 2019, requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses them plus credible future assurances. In 2026, the Trump administration advanced a roughly $700 million sale of F110 engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter and signaled openness to reviewing F-35 reinstatement, citing improved bilateral ties. However, Turkey’s reported attempts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state stalled by August, leaving the statutory barrier intact. The State Department has confirmed no compliance as of late July, amid congressional opposition and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These factors sustain uncertainty around any near-term reentry, with diplomatic progress on sanctions relief or system removal remaining the central variable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Wolumen
$44,314Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US law under the NDAA and CAATSA bars Turkey from the F-35 program while it retains S-400 systems acquired from Russia in 2019, requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses them plus credible future assurances. In 2026, the Trump administration advanced a roughly $700 million sale of F110 engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter and signaled openness to reviewing F-35 reinstatement, citing improved bilateral ties. However, Turkey’s reported attempts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state stalled by August, leaving the statutory barrier intact. The State Department has confirmed no compliance as of late July, amid congressional opposition and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These factors sustain uncertainty around any near-term reentry, with diplomatic progress on sanctions relief or system removal remaining the central variable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Wolumen
$44,314Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...US law under the NDAA and CAATSA bars Turkey from the F-35 program while it retains S-400 systems acquired from Russia in 2019, requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses them plus credible future assurances. In 2026, the Trump administration advanced a roughly $700 million sale of F110 engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter and signaled openness to reviewing F-35 reinstatement, citing improved bilateral ties. However, Turkey’s reported attempts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state stalled by August, leaving the statutory barrier intact. The State Department has confirmed no compliance as of late July, amid congressional opposition and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These factors sustain uncertainty around any near-term reentry, with diplomatic progress on sanctions relief or system removal remaining the central variable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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