The overwhelming trader consensus against President Trump’s removal via the 25th Amendment before 2027 reflects the absence of any sustained signals of incapacity or institutional support for invocation. More than 18 months into the term, the administration has shown continuity in cabinet composition and vice-presidential alignment, with no public actions or statements from key officials indicating readiness to trigger the process. Historical patterns of 25th Amendment use remain rare and typically require acute medical crises or broad bipartisan agreement in Congress, neither of which has materialized. While late-term health developments, cabinet-level defections, or unforeseen scandals could still alter probabilities, current political dynamics and procedural thresholds continue to anchor market pricing near certainty for the “No” outcome.