Recent Siena and other polling shows incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman by roughly 10 points among likely voters, yet the governor’s race remains the top statewide contest on the November 3, 2026 ballot. This positioning, combined with completed June primaries and standard early-voting windows from late October, leaves turnout projections sensitive to base mobilization, independent participation, and any late shifts in enthusiasm. New York’s large registered-voter pool and urban-suburban divides add further variability, while historical off-year patterns provide only loose benchmarks. With multiple turnout brackets priced near parity, traders appear to view these competing dynamics—campaign intensity, weather, and national political mood—as equally plausible drivers of final participation levels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano<4.5M 45%
4.5M-5M 45%
5M-5.5M 45%
6M-6.5M 45%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
<4.5M
45%
4.5M-5M
45%
5M-5.5M
45%
5.5M-6M
44%
6M-6.5M
45%
6.5M-7M
44%
7M+
45%
<4.5M 45%
4.5M-5M 45%
5M-5.5M 45%
6M-6.5M 45%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
<4.5M
$0 Wol.
45%
4.5M-5M
$0 Wol.
45%
5M-5.5M
$0 Wol.
45%
5.5M-6M
$0 Wol.
44%
6M-6.5M
$0 Wol.
45%
6.5M-7M
$0 Wol.
44%
7M+
$0 Wol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Siena and other polling shows incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman by roughly 10 points among likely voters, yet the governor’s race remains the top statewide contest on the November 3, 2026 ballot. This positioning, combined with completed June primaries and standard early-voting windows from late October, leaves turnout projections sensitive to base mobilization, independent participation, and any late shifts in enthusiasm. New York’s large registered-voter pool and urban-suburban divides add further variability, while historical off-year patterns provide only loose benchmarks. With multiple turnout brackets priced near parity, traders appear to view these competing dynamics—campaign intensity, weather, and national political mood—as equally plausible drivers of final participation levels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Siena and other polling shows incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman by roughly 10 points among likely voters, yet the governor’s race remains the top statewide contest on the November 3, 2026 ballot. This positioning, combined with completed June primaries and standard early-voting windows from late October, leaves turnout projections sensitive to base mobilization, independent participation, and any late shifts in enthusiasm. New York’s large registered-voter pool and urban-suburban divides add further variability, while historical off-year patterns provide only loose benchmarks. With multiple turnout brackets priced near parity, traders appear to view these competing dynamics—campaign intensity, weather, and national political mood—as equally plausible drivers of final participation levels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Siena and other polling shows incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman by roughly 10 points among likely voters, yet the governor’s race remains the top statewide contest on the November 3, 2026 ballot. This positioning, combined with completed June primaries and standard early-voting windows from late October, leaves turnout projections sensitive to base mobilization, independent participation, and any late shifts in enthusiasm. New York’s large registered-voter pool and urban-suburban divides add further variability, while historical off-year patterns provide only loose benchmarks. With multiple turnout brackets priced near parity, traders appear to view these competing dynamics—campaign intensity, weather, and national political mood—as equally plausible drivers of final participation levels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
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