Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko from the federal ballot for the September 18–20 State Duma elections after a challenge by the Rodina party, with the Central Election Commission subsequently excluding its candidate list. This legal barrier prevents the liberal opposition party from competing in the proportional representation component, where the 5% threshold applies, rendering clearance impossible under current conditions. Trader consensus at 99.2% for “No” aligns with this exclusion, reinforced by Yabloko’s inability to clear the threshold in any national election since 1999 amid documented administrative pressures and limited media access. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a successful appeal to the Constitutional Court or other last-minute reinstatement before voting concludes, though the compressed timeline makes such reversals highly improbable.