Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoArthur Henrique 90%
Soldado Sampaio 4.5%
Farah Mesquita 3.3%
Rosi Aires 3.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
90%
Soldado Sampaio
5%
Farah Mesquita
3%
Rosi Aires
3%
Clébio Genuíno
1%
Arthur Henrique 90%
Soldado Sampaio 4.5%
Farah Mesquita 3.3%
Rosi Aires 3.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
$2,687 Wol.
90%
Soldado Sampaio
$183 Wol.
5%
Farah Mesquita
$153 Wol.
3%
Rosi Aires
$222 Wol.
3%
Clébio Genuíno
$222 Wol.
1%
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,467Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$3,467Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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