Stephen Skoly leads the Rhode Island 2nd Congressional District Republican primary market at 77.5% implied probability, ahead of Victor Mellor at 22%, with the September 9 primary just days away. Skoly secured the state GOP endorsement at the June convention by a wide delegate margin after Mellor withdrew from contention, gaining top ballot placement and institutional support from party leaders and groups like the Fraternal Order of Police. Mellor, a self-funding veteran and businessman who recently returned to the state, has raised over $3 million but trails in early August polling and lacks the party nod. A televised debate between the two aired in early September, providing late visibility in a contest focused on medical freedom, border security, and economic issues. Trader consensus reflects Skoly’s organizational edge and local profile in a low-turnout primary environment.