Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. The district's consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Dean's incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and local organization, underpins this outlook against Republican challenger Aurora Stuski. Primary and general election dynamics have shown limited volatility, with no major shifts in polling aggregates or campaign developments altering the baseline. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan swing, late-cycle scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban areas, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPA-04 House Election Winner
PA-04 House Election Winner
$19,078 Wol.
$19,078 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$19,078 Wol.
$19,078 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,620 Wol.
94%
Republican Party
$12,459 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. The district's consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Dean's incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and local organization, underpins this outlook against Republican challenger Aurora Stuski. Primary and general election dynamics have shown limited volatility, with no major shifts in polling aggregates or campaign developments altering the baseline. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan swing, late-cycle scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban areas, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Wolumen
$19,078Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. The district's consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Dean's incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and local organization, underpins this outlook against Republican challenger Aurora Stuski. Primary and general election dynamics have shown limited volatility, with no major shifts in polling aggregates or campaign developments altering the baseline. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan swing, late-cycle scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban areas, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$19,078Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. The district's consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Dean's incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and local organization, underpins this outlook against Republican challenger Aurora Stuski. Primary and general election dynamics have shown limited volatility, with no major shifts in polling aggregates or campaign developments altering the baseline. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan swing, late-cycle scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban areas, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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