The open Republican-held Senate seat in Montana features nominee Kurt Alme facing a divided field that includes Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, with recent July polling showing Alme ahead by double digits amid a split in the remaining vote. This fragmentation of opposition support has produced a wide implied probability favoring the Republican outcome in trader assessments. Primary dynamics, including Alme’s strong June primary performance and ongoing pressure on non-Republican candidates to consolidate before the general election, reinforce the current positioning. Late developments such as a withdrawal by one of the leading opponents, shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMontana Senate Election Winner
Montana Senate Election Winner
Republican 93%
Independent 3.8%
Democrat <1%
$112,320 Wol.
$112,320 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
93%
Independent
4%
Democrat
1%
Republican 93%
Independent 3.8%
Democrat <1%
$112,320 Wol.
$112,320 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$56,750 Wol.
93%
Independent
$15,409 Wol.
4%
Democrat
$40,162 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open Republican-held Senate seat in Montana features nominee Kurt Alme facing a divided field that includes Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, with recent July polling showing Alme ahead by double digits amid a split in the remaining vote. This fragmentation of opposition support has produced a wide implied probability favoring the Republican outcome in trader assessments. Primary dynamics, including Alme’s strong June primary performance and ongoing pressure on non-Republican candidates to consolidate before the general election, reinforce the current positioning. Late developments such as a withdrawal by one of the leading opponents, shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rynek otwarty: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$112,320Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open Republican-held Senate seat in Montana features nominee Kurt Alme facing a divided field that includes Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, with recent July polling showing Alme ahead by double digits amid a split in the remaining vote. This fragmentation of opposition support has produced a wide implied probability favoring the Republican outcome in trader assessments. Primary dynamics, including Alme’s strong June primary performance and ongoing pressure on non-Republican candidates to consolidate before the general election, reinforce the current positioning. Late developments such as a withdrawal by one of the leading opponents, shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Wolumen
$112,320Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open Republican-held Senate seat in Montana features nominee Kurt Alme facing a divided field that includes Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, with recent July polling showing Alme ahead by double digits amid a split in the remaining vote. This fragmentation of opposition support has produced a wide implied probability favoring the Republican outcome in trader assessments. Primary dynamics, including Alme’s strong June primary performance and ongoing pressure on non-Republican candidates to consolidate before the general election, reinforce the current positioning. Late developments such as a withdrawal by one of the leading opponents, shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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