**Trader consensus on Shenzhen’s September 5 lowest temperature centers on 26–27 °C (combined ~100 % implied probability), reflecting model consensus and recent observations.** Official and ensemble forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows stabilizing near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and high humidity (70–90 %). These conditions limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums above the seasonal climatological baseline of ~24–25 °C for early September. Hourly station data through the early morning of the 5th recorded temperatures holding at 26–27 °C, with no evidence of a stronger nocturnal drop. Persistent moisture and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range, reducing the chance of readings at or below 25 °C. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based range while assigning negligible probability to warmer or substantially cooler outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 5?
24°C 10%
22°C 6%
23°C 6%
21°C or below 2%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C
10%
25°C
1%
26°C
34%
27°C
66%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
24°C 10%
22°C 6%
23°C 6%
21°C or below 2%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
$22 Wol.
2%
22°C
$12 Wol.
6%
23°C
$12 Wol.
6%
24°C
$152 Wol.
10%
25°C
$116 Wol.
1%
26°C
$106 Wol.
34%
27°C
$232 Wol.
66%
28°C
$1,125 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$1,101 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$591 Wol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$45 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Shenzhen’s September 5 lowest temperature centers on 26–27 °C (combined ~100 % implied probability), reflecting model consensus and recent observations.**
Official and ensemble forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows stabilizing near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and high humidity (70–90 %). These conditions limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums above the seasonal climatological baseline of ~24–25 °C for early September. Hourly station data through the early morning of the 5th recorded temperatures holding at 26–27 °C, with no evidence of a stronger nocturnal drop. Persistent moisture and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range, reducing the chance of readings at or below 25 °C. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based range while assigning negligible probability to warmer or substantially cooler outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,514Data zakończenia
Sep 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Shenzhen’s September 5 lowest temperature centers on 26–27 °C (combined ~100 % implied probability), reflecting model consensus and recent observations.**
Official and ensemble forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows stabilizing near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and high humidity (70–90 %). These conditions limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums above the seasonal climatological baseline of ~24–25 °C for early September. Hourly station data through the early morning of the 5th recorded temperatures holding at 26–27 °C, with no evidence of a stronger nocturnal drop. Persistent moisture and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range, reducing the chance of readings at or below 25 °C. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based range while assigning negligible probability to warmer or substantially cooler outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,514Data zakończenia
Sep 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Shenzhen’s September 5 lowest temperature centers on 26–27 °C (combined ~100 % implied probability), reflecting model consensus and recent observations.** Official and ensemble forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows stabilizing near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and high humidity (70–90 %). These conditions limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums above the seasonal climatological baseline of ~24–25 °C for early September. Hourly station data through the early morning of the 5th recorded temperatures holding at 26–27 °C, with no evidence of a stronger nocturnal drop. Persistent moisture and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range, reducing the chance of readings at or below 25 °C. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based range while assigning negligible probability to warmer or substantially cooler outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania