**Clear, calm overnight conditions and a recent cool-down trend are positioning Ankara's August 31 low near or below the long-term average of ~16°C.** Forecasts from sources including Yr.no, WeatherBug, and Turkish meteorological services indicate light northerly to northeasterly winds, mostly clear skies, and low dew points overnight, which promote strong radiative cooling after sunset on the 30th. This setup typically allows temperatures to drop more than on cloudy or windier nights. Recent observations show Ankara running cooler than seasonal norms, with the August 30 high around 23–26°C versus the typical 31°C, consistent with a transient northerly flow. Model consensus points to a low in the 13–17°C range, but slight differences in timing of wind shifts and cloud cover introduce uncertainty that supports the market's spread. The elevated implied probability on 11°C or below (41.5%) reflects trader emphasis on the potential for enhanced cooling under these stable, dry conditions, while probabilities clustered around 12–14°C capture the central forecast range. Higher outcomes above 17°C carry low odds given the current pattern. Updated model runs and local observations on the morning of the 31st will be key near-term drivers.