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icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Polityka·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Polityka·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

<35 93%

35–44 4.6%

45–54 2.5%

75–84 1.9%

Polymarket

$10,378 Wol.

<35 93%

35–44 4.6%

45–54 2.5%

75–84 1.9%

Polymarket

$10,378 Wol.

<35

$4,672 Wol.

93%

35–44

$4,658 Wol.

5%

45–54

$86 Wol.

2%

55–64

$93 Wol.

2%

65–74

$148 Wol.

2%

75–84

$288 Wol.

2%

85+

$432 Wol.

2%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People (NL), a systemic opposition party with a current Duma faction of 15 seats, faces structural limits in Russia's mixed electoral system ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma vote. Kremlin-aligned management of outcomes among registered parties, combined with United Russia's dominance in single-member districts and proportional allocation, keeps NL's projected share well below 10 percent despite some state polls showing double-digit support. The party has fielded a full federal list and dozens of constituency candidates, yet historical patterns and controlled competition constrain gains to modest levels similar to its 2021 results. Traders price a strong probability of under 35 total seats because late adjustments in vote distribution or turnout among other systemic parties would be required to exceed that range. Shifts could occur only through major, unanticipated changes in official strategy or broad voter realignment not evident in the current environment.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Wolumen
$10,378
Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People (NL), a systemic opposition party with a current Duma faction of 15 seats, faces structural limits in Russia's mixed electoral system ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma vote. Kremlin-aligned management of outcomes among registered parties, combined with United Russia's dominance in single-member districts and proportional allocation, keeps NL's projected share well below 10 percent despite some state polls showing double-digit support. The party has fielded a full federal list and dozens of constituency candidates, yet historical patterns and controlled competition constrain gains to modest levels similar to its 2021 results. Traders price a strong probability of under 35 total seats because late adjustments in vote distribution or turnout among other systemic parties would be required to exceed that range. Shifts could occur only through major, unanticipated changes in official strategy or broad voter realignment not evident in the current environment.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Wolumen
$10,378
Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...

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"How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 7 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "<35" z 93%, za nim "35–44" z 5%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 93¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 93% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" wygenerował $10.4K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Sep 1, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?", przeglądaj 7 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" jest "<35" z 93%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 93% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "35–44" z 5%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.