Persistent marine layer influences and moderate onshore winds from the Pacific are anchoring trader expectations near seasonal norms of 68–72°F for San Francisco’s July 26 high at the official SFO station. Recent cooling after a brief mid-July heat spike has reinforced this range, with National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models showing persistent coastal stratus and sea breezes limiting afternoon warming. Slight differences among the closely matched 68–69°F and 70–71°F outcomes hinge on marine layer depth, exact cloud-clearing timing, and any subtle high-pressure ridge that could briefly enhance offshore flow. Updated model runs and NWS briefings in the next 24 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.