**Trader sentiment for San Francisco's August 6 high temperature centers on the narrow 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins (combined ~75% implied probability) because official forecasts cluster tightly in that range amid typical coastal moderation.** National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for the day emphasize mostly sunny or partly cloudy conditions with a high near 72–74°F at downtown or airport stations, reflecting modest warming from a stable marine layer that burns off by afternoon. Persistent onshore westerly flow and sea breezes keep the city well below interior Bay Area or statewide heat, consistent with August climatology (average high ~69–70°F). Minor model differences in exact marine layer depth and timing create the close split between the two leading outcomes, while lower-probability bins reflect low odds of stronger offshore flow or unusual clearing that could push readings higher. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours to alter this consensus.