Forecast consensus from models and agencies places Chengdu's August 7 high near 31–33 °C, with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop in the afternoon. These convective cells draw on abundant monsoon moisture and high humidity, releasing latent heat aloft while limiting surface insolation and thereby capping the daily maximum. Light steering winds and a lingering subtropical ridge favor localized rather than widespread cooling, keeping the distribution tight around the 32–34 °C range. Historical August climatology shows similar days frequently peak between 30–34 °C when rain timing shifts by only a few hours. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance later today will clarify whether stronger convection or clearer breaks push the outcome toward the upper or lower edge of current market-implied probabilities.