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icon for Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

icon for Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

4% szansa
Polymarket

$692,078 Wol.

4% szansa
Polymarket

$692,078 Wol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" for an Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the distinction between a significant regional epidemic and a true pandemic.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in Ituri Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with limited imported cases in Uganda, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the WHO in mid-May 2026 but explicitly does not meet pandemic emergency criteria under International Health Regulations. As of mid-August, roughly 4,900–5,000 confirmed cases and about 2,325 deaths have been reported, primarily in the DRC, with Uganda's smaller cluster (20 confirmed cases, 2 deaths) declared over by late July. This scale remains orders of magnitude below historical pandemics and is contained largely within conflict-affected northeastern DRC, aided by isolation measures, contact tracing, and the virus's known epidemiology. Bundibugyo ebolavirus generally shows lower case fatality and transmissibility than the Zaire strain in prior outbreaks, and no sustained community transmission has occurred outside the immediate region. No cases linked to this event have reached the United States or other distant continents. **Key upcoming developments that could still shift odds include updated WHO assessments, major expansions in case counts or geography, or revised modeling of transmission dynamics.** Strong public-health interventions continue to limit spread, supporting the market-implied probability near 96%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$692,078
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" for an Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the distinction between a significant regional epidemic and a true pandemic.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in Ituri Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with limited imported cases in Uganda, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the WHO in mid-May 2026 but explicitly does not meet pandemic emergency criteria under International Health Regulations. As of mid-August, roughly 4,900–5,000 confirmed cases and about 2,325 deaths have been reported, primarily in the DRC, with Uganda's smaller cluster (20 confirmed cases, 2 deaths) declared over by late July. This scale remains orders of magnitude below historical pandemics and is contained largely within conflict-affected northeastern DRC, aided by isolation measures, contact tracing, and the virus's known epidemiology. Bundibugyo ebolavirus generally shows lower case fatality and transmissibility than the Zaire strain in prior outbreaks, and no sustained community transmission has occurred outside the immediate region. No cases linked to this event have reached the United States or other distant continents. **Key upcoming developments that could still shift odds include updated WHO assessments, major expansions in case counts or geography, or revised modeling of transmission dynamics.** Strong public-health interventions continue to limit spread, supporting the market-implied probability near 96%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$692,078
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Ebola pandemic in 2026?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały "Tak" lub "Nie" w zależności od tego, czy wierzą, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Obecne zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwo to 4% na "Yes". Na przykład, jeśli "Tak" kosztuje 4¢, rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 4% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje i wydarzenia. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Ebola pandemic in 2026?" wygenerował $692.1K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku May 15, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Ebola pandemic in 2026?", wybierz, czy uważasz, że odpowiedź to "Tak" czy "Nie". Każda strona ma bieżącą cenę odzwierciedlającą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" i wynik okaże się "Tak", każdy udział wypłaci $1. Jeśli okaże się "Nie", Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem, jeśli chcesz zrealizować zysk lub ograniczyć stratę.

Obecne prawdopodobieństwo dla "Ebola pandemic in 2026?" to 4% na "Yes". Oznacza to, że społeczność Polymarket uważa, że istnieje 4% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym na podstawie rzeczywistych transakcji, dostarczając ciągle aktualizowany sygnał tego, czego rynek oczekuje.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Ebola pandemic in 2026?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.