Éloïse Coulombe of the Parti conservateur du Québec holds the highest implied probability in this Charlesbourg riding market ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election. Recent polling averages and seat projections from outlets such as 338Canada show the PCQ leading locally with roughly 36 percent support, ahead of the Parti Québécois and the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec, which is not re-nominating its sitting MNA. Coulombe’s campaign has emphasized housing affordability, tax relief, and youth priorities, drawing consistent local attention during the nomination period that closes September 17. The other listed candidates, including Marie-Josée Morency (CAQ), Gabriel Coulombe (PQ), Seynabou Top (Liberal), and Georges Goma (Québec solidaire), trail in both riding-specific forecasts and broader provincial trends that favor opposition gains in the Capitale-Nationale region. Trader pricing appears to track these localized polling shifts and the absence of major late developments that would alter the frontrunner’s position.