Xavier Becerra advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary with 28% of the vote to face Republican Steve Hilton in the November general election, consolidating Democratic support after other contenders like Eric Swalwell exited. As former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary, Becerra benefits from establishment backing, name recognition, and a July poll showing a 61%-36% lead over Hilton in the heavily Democratic state. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages in the general election matchup. Hilton's path remains narrow, hinging on turnout among Republican and independent voters plus any late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or sharp shifts in economic conditions that could narrow the margin.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFinal certification deadline approaches for 2026 California gubernatorial election
With the official certification deadline nearing, the market awaited confirmation of the election results from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to resolve the winner of the 2026 California governor race.
Katie Porter concedes California governor race after trailing in polls
Katie Porter dips to 0%3%
Katie Porter conceded the race, confirming her exit and consolidating the Democratic field behind Becerra, impacting market expectations.
Antonio Villaraigosa officially announces 2026 California governor run
Antonio Villaraigosa rises to 8%3%
Villaraigosa publicly announced his candidacy again, emphasizing his experience and problem-solving approach, which helped stabilize his market price.
Steve Hilton kicks off general election campaign for California governor
Steve Hilton officially launched his general election campaign against Xavier Becerra, emphasizing his platform and seeking to become the first Republican governor in California in over a decade.
Katie Porter faces scrutiny over temperament but remains a key Democratic contender
Katie Porter dips to 8%4%
Despite viral moments raising questions about her temperament, Katie Porter maintained her position as a credible Democratic candidate with strong grassroots support and endorsements, influencing her market standing.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum as Democratic frontrunner for California governor
Xavier Becerra jumps to 88%11%
Polling data in mid-2026 showed Xavier Becerra with a commanding lead among Democratic voters, driven by his experience and focus on healthcare and economic issues, boosting his chances for the general election.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra leads Steve Hilton by double digits ahead of November election
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%15%
A UC Berkeley poll showed Xavier Becerra leading Steve Hilton 52% to 31%, reinforcing Becerra's frontrunner status and boosting his market price.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra leading Steve Hilton ahead of November election
A poll conducted shortly after the primary showed Xavier Becerra with a significant lead over Steve Hilton, indicating Becerra as the favorite for the November general election in the heavily Democratic state.
Xavier Becerra confirmed as Democratic candidate for California governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 95%28%
Xavier Becerra was confirmed as the Democratic candidate for California governor after the primary election, positioning him as the front-runner for the November general election and a potential historic first Latino governor in modern times.
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Billionaire Rick Caruso officially announced he would not run for governor or mayor, removing a potential high-profile candidate from the race and clarifying the field for other contenders.
Republican Steve Hilton advances to general election against Xavier Becerra for California governor
Steve Hilton officially advanced to the general election after the primary, solidifying the two-candidate race and impacting market prices by confirming Hilton as the Republican nominee.
Steve Hilton officially advances to general election against Xavier Becerra
Steve Hilton plunges to 6%43%
Steve Hilton's advancement to the general election was confirmed, solidifying the two-candidate race for governor and impacting market prices accordingly.
Steve Hilton confirmed as Republican candidate for California governor
Steve Hilton dips to 4%4%
Following the primary election and subsequent vote counts, Steve Hilton was confirmed as the Republican candidate to face Democrat Xavier Becerra in the November general election, solidifying the two-candidate race for governor.
Republican Steve Hilton officially advances to general election against Xavier Becerra
Steve Hilton dips to 6%2%
Steve Hilton officially secured his place in the general election against Democrat Xavier Becerra, solidifying the two-candidate race for governor and confirming market expectations of a tight contest between these frontrunners.
Xavier Becerra advances to November California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 88%22%
The Associated Press and other outlets called the June primary, confirming Becerra as the other top‑two finisher; his market price jumped from the low‑teens to the high‑80s.
Xavier Becerra holds campaign event in Los Angeles launching general election campaign
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%21%
Xavier Becerra held a campaign event in Los Angeles to launch his general election campaign after advancing from the primary, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence in his chances.
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Trump and advances in California governor race
Steve Hilton dips to 8%2%
Steve Hilton received endorsement from former President Donald Trump and secured the second spot in the general election, boosting his profile and market position as the main Republican candidate against Becerra.
Steve Hilton advances to general election against Xavier Becerra
Steve Hilton rises to 9%1%
Republican Steve Hilton secured the second spot in the June primary, beating Democrat Tom Steyer, setting up a general election contest against Xavier Becerra. This was reflected in Hilton's market price stabilizing at 9%.
Steve Hilton officially projected to advance in California governor race
Steve Hilton dips to 6%4%
Steve Hilton, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, was officially projected to advance to the general election, solidifying the November matchup against Xavier Becerra.
Steve Hilton confirmed to advance to general election against Xavier Becerra
Steve Hilton surges to 25%17%
After days of vote counting, Steve Hilton was confirmed as the Republican candidate advancing to the general election against Democrat Xavier Becerra, solidifying the two-candidate race for governor.
Steve Hilton beats Tom Steyer to secure second spot in California governor race
Steve Hilton dips to 7%3%
Steve Hilton narrowly defeated billionaire Tom Steyer in the primary, securing the Republican nomination for governor and ending Steyer's campaign, which had been heavily self-funded.
Steve Hilton confirmed as second candidate for California governor general election
Steve Hilton surges to 25%15%
After final vote counts, Steve Hilton was confirmed to advance alongside Xavier Becerra to the November general election, solidifying the race as a Democrat vs. Republican contest and influencing market confidence in Hilton's viability.
Steve Hilton secures second spot in California governor race, beating Tom Steyer
Steve Hilton, endorsed by President Trump, secured the second spot in the general election, surpassing billionaire Tom Steyer, confirming the two-candidate race for governor.
Steve Hilton officially secures second spot in California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 9%2%
Following the final vote counts, Steve Hilton was officially confirmed as the second-place finisher in the primary, securing his place in the November general election against Xavier Becerra. This confirmation was reflected in market pricing and media coverage.
Steve Hilton officially advances to California governor general election
Steve Hilton plunges to 7%42%
Decision Desk HQ and major news outlets officially projected Republican Steve Hilton to advance to the general election against Democrat Xavier Becerra, solidifying the November matchup and impacting market prices accordingly.
Steve Hilton projected to advance to general election in California governor race
The Associated Press projected Steve Hilton to advance to the general election alongside Xavier Becerra, confirming the top two candidates. This official projection reinforced Hilton's market position despite earlier declines, stabilizing his price as the Republican nominee.
Katie Porter endorses Xavier Becerra after primary results
After failing to advance in the primary, Democratic candidate Katie Porter endorsed fellow Democrat Xavier Becerra for governor, urging party unity to prevent a Republican victory. This endorsement aimed to consolidate Democratic support ahead of the general election.
Katie Porter endorses Xavier Becerra after primary results
Katie Porter plunges to 0%49%
After failing to advance in the primary, former candidate Katie Porter endorsed fellow Democrat Xavier Becerra, urging voters to unite behind him to prevent a Republican win.
Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton will face off in California governor’s race
Following the primary, Becerra and Hilton were confirmed as the general election candidates, solidifying the market's leading positions for these two and ending the viability of other candidates.
Steve Hilton advances to November California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 8%2%
The Associated Press, NBC and the Guardian all called the June 2 primary, confirming Hilton as one of the top‑two finishers and moving his market price to around 8 %.
Katie Porter concedes California governor primary race
Katie Porter dips to 0%2%
Katie Porter conceded the primary race, leading to her market price dropping to zero and consolidating support for the leading candidates, especially Becerra and Hilton.
Steve Hilton endorsed by Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting his profile and support among conservative voters ahead of the general election, reflected in a market price increase.
Xavier Becerra advances to November general election for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 27%23%
Democrat Xavier Becerra secured the top spot in the June primary, positioning him as the frontrunner for the November general election and a potential historic first Latino governor of California.
Xavier Becerra officially advances to general election for California governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%28%
Xavier Becerra secured a spot in the general election, reinforcing his status as the Democratic frontrunner and causing his market price to peak near 89%.
Xavier Becerra advances to California governor general election
Xavier Becerra surges to 93%54%
Xavier Becerra secured a spot in the November 2026 general election after the June primary, solidifying his position as the Democratic frontrunner and causing his market price to rise to 93%.
Xavier Becerra moves closer to becoming California's first elected Latino governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 88%24%
Following the primary, Becerra's strong showing positioned him as the frontrunner for governor, with historic significance as potentially the first elected Latino governor of California.
Xavier Becerra advances to general election for California governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 93%43%
Xavier Becerra secured nearly 27% of the vote in the primary, confirming his place in the general election and reinforcing his status as the Democratic frontrunner.
Associated Press calls California governor race for Becerra and Hilton
The Associated Press officially called the race for Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton to face off in the November 2026 California governor election, confirming the primary results and market resolution criteria.
Xavier Becerra emerges as front-runner in California governor race after primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 94%57%
Following the primary, Xavier Becerra surged in polls and betting markets, becoming the clear favorite to win the governorship. His extensive political experience and consolidation of Democratic support drove his market price upward significantly.
Xavier Becerra projected to advance to November ballot for California governor
Xavier Becerra jumps to 89%12%
Following the primary, Xavier Becerra was projected to advance to the November general election, solidifying his position as the Democratic nominee and increasing market confidence.
Associated Press calls Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra as California governor primary winners
Steve Hilton dips to 7%2%
The Associated Press officially called the primary race for Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra, solidifying their status as general election candidates and impacting market confidence and prices.
Xavier Becerra secures top spot on California ballot for governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 89%2%
Xavier Becerra clinched the top spot on California’s ballot for governor following the primary, confirming his status as the leading Democratic candidate and solidifying his market position near 89%.
Republican Steve Hilton to face Democrat Xavier Becerra for California governor
The Associated Press called the race for the general election, confirming Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra as the two candidates, solidifying the market's resolution outlook.
Steve Hilton officially confirmed to advance to November general election against Xavier Becerra
Steve Hilton dips to 7%3%
The Associated Press officially called the race, confirming Steve Hilton as the Republican candidate to face Democrat Xavier Becerra in the November general election, marking a key milestone in the race.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor race as primary ballots counted
Xavier Becerra surges to 48%20%
Xavier Becerra overtook Republican Steve Hilton in vote counts after initially trailing on election night, solidifying his position as the Democratic frontrunner for governor.
Democrat Xavier Becerra advances to general election for California governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 90%2%
Becerra's primary victory solidified his position as the Democratic nominee, increasing market confidence in his chances to win the governorship.
Xavier Becerra officially clinches top spot on California ballot for governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 93%43%
Xavier Becerra secured the top spot on the California ballot for governor after the primary election, confirming his position as the leading Democratic candidate for the general election against Steve Hilton.
Steve Hilton claims election fraud and calls for reforms in California vote counting
Steve Hilton dips to 6%2%
Steve Hilton publicly alleged election fraud and criticized California's vote counting process, reflecting tensions in the race and possibly affecting market confidence in his candidacy.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton jumps to 15%6%
Republican candidate Steve Hilton received a high-profile endorsement from former President Donald Trump, boosting his campaign and solidifying his position as the Republican nominee for California governor.
Steve Hilton receives Trump endorsement in California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
Republican candidate Steve Hilton received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump in April 2026, boosting his profile and support among conservative voters ahead of the primary and general elections.
Chad Bianco concedes fourth-place finish in California governor primary
Chad Bianco dips to 0%2%
Chad Bianco acknowledged his fourth-place finish in the primary and vowed to continue his political efforts, marking the end of his significant market influence in the race.
Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra lead in California governor primary results
Early results from the June 2 primary showed Steve Hilton leading with 27.8% and Xavier Becerra with 25.4%, confirming their positions as frontrunners for the general election.
Steve Hilton advances to general election for California governor with Trump endorsement
Steve Hilton plunges to 6%43%
Republican Steve Hilton, former Fox News host and adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron, advanced to the general election for California governor after the June primary. Backed by Donald Trump, Hilton positioned himself as a conservative alternative to the Democratic frontrunner.
Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to California governor general election
In the June 2, 2026 primary election, Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton emerged as the top two candidates, advancing to the November general election. This set the stage for a Democrat vs. Republican contest to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom.
California primary election results show Becerra and Hilton leading
Xavier Becerra surges to 93%32%
Primary results indicated Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, shaping the final contest.
Steve Hilton advances to California governor general election
Steve Hilton plunges to 10%39%
Republican Steve Hilton advanced to the general election alongside Xavier Becerra, securing a spot in the November runoff and setting up a competitive race between the two candidates.
California primary election confirms Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to general election
The June 2 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, solidifying their market positions and ending the viability of other candidates.
California primary election advances Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton to general election
The June 2, 2026, primary election resulted in Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advancing to the November general election, setting the stage for a competitive gubernatorial race between the two major party candidates.
California primary election held for governor
The primary election narrowed the field to two candidates for the general election: Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton, setting the stage for a competitive November race.
Steve Hilton secures second place in California primary, advancing to general election
Steve Hilton dips to 6%4%
Steve Hilton finished second in the June 2 primary, securing his place in the general election against Becerra, which solidified his market position at 6%.
California primary election results: Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra advance to general election
Steve Hilton plunges to 6%43%
In the June 2 primary, Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra secured the top two spots to advance to the November general election, shaping the final contest for governor.
Steve Hilton endorsed by Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 10%2%
Steve Hilton received a high-profile endorsement from former President Donald Trump, boosting his campaign visibility and support among Republican voters, reflected in his market price increase.
California primary election results project Becerra and Hilton advance
Xavier Becerra surges to 93%43%
The June 2 primary election results projected Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, confirming market expectations and causing a surge in their market prices.
Xavier Becerra secures top spot in California governor primary, advancing to general election
Xavier Becerra surges to 48%20%
Becerra’s strong primary performance confirmed his frontrunner status, significantly increasing his market price and positioning him for the general election.
Steve Hilton qualifies for California governor general election with Trump endorsement
Hilton’s primary success, bolstered by Donald Trump’s endorsement, secured his place in the general election against Becerra, impacting market prices significantly.
California primary election confirms Becerra and Hilton advance to general election
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%19%
The June 2, 2026 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election. This outcome solidified market expectations and led to a sharp increase in Becerra's market price.
California primary election results show Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton leading
The June 2 primary results positioned Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the general election, confirming market expectations and influencing prices accordingly.
Steve Hilton secures spot in California governor general election after primary
Steve Hilton jumps to 11%6%
Steve Hilton finished second in the primary election, securing his place in the general election against Xavier Becerra, which increased his market price and confirmed his status as a leading candidate.
California primary election narrows governor race to Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton
The June 2 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, causing major price shifts in the market with others dropping to zero.
California primary election narrows field to Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton
The June 2 primary election results advanced Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton to the general election, significantly impacting market probabilities and eliminating other candidates.
California primary election results confirm Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to general election
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%39%
The June 2 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, causing a sharp rise in their market prices and collapse of others.
Xavier Becerra advances to November general election for California governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 88%27%
Xavier Becerra secured enough votes in the June 2 primary to advance to the November general election, solidifying his position as the Democratic frontrunner and causing a significant market price increase.
Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to November general election in California governor primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 94%31%
The June 2 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates, solidifying Becerra's frontrunner status and Hilton's position as the Republican challenger, reflected in their market price increases.
Steve Hilton receives Trump endorsement and leads early primary results
Steve Hilton surges to 29%20%
Republican Steve Hilton, endorsed by President Trump, led early returns in the California governor primary, reflecting strong conservative support despite the crowded field.
Steve Hilton secures second spot in California governor race, beating Tom Steyer
Steve Hilton plunges to 6%43%
Steve Hilton's strong primary performance, aided by Trump's endorsement, allowed him to surpass billionaire Tom Steyer and advance to the general election.
Associated Press calls Xavier Becerra top of California governor primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 75%20%
The Associated Press called the primary, confirming Becerra as the top‑vote‑getter with 27 % and advancing him to the November general election. Market price jumped from 55 % to 75 % (price before = 55, price after = 75).
California primary election results: Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to general election
In the June 2 primary, Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton secured the top two spots to advance to the November general election, with Becerra leading the Democratic field and Hilton consolidating Republican support.
California holds top-two primary election for governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 75%23%
The June 2, 2026, primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, causing a sharp rise in Becerra's market price and a decline for other candidates.
California primary election sets general election candidates for governor
The June 2, 2026 primary election concluded with Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advancing to the November general election, while other candidates like Tom Steyer and Chad Bianco were eliminated, shaping the final race.
Primary election results: Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to November runoff
Xavier Becerra surges to 88%27%
In the June 2 primary, Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton secured the top two spots, advancing to the November general election. This outcome confirmed market expectations and significantly increased Becerra's winning probability.
Steve Hilton finishes second in California primary, advancing to general election
Steve Hilton dips to 9%1%
Steve Hilton secured second place in the primary, ensuring a Republican presence in the general election and influencing market expectations for the race outcome.
California primary election results: Becerra and Hilton advance to general election
In the June 2 primary, Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton secured the top two spots, advancing to the November general election. Billionaire Tom Steyer and Sheriff Chad Bianco failed to advance, significantly impacting their market probabilities.
California primary election results: Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to general election
The June 2, 2026, primary election concluded with Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton emerging as the top two candidates, setting the stage for the general election contest.
California primary election results: Becerra and Hilton advance to general election
In the June 2 primary, Xavier Becerra finished first with 26.7% and Republican Steve Hilton narrowly followed with 26.4%, advancing both to the November general election and shaping the final contest.
Steve Hilton officially projected to advance in California governor primary
Steve Hilton plunges to 9%40%
Steve Hilton secured the second spot in the primary election, advancing to the general election against Becerra. Trump's endorsement and strong GOP support were key factors in his advancement.
Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra advance to California governor general election
In the June 2 primary, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra secured the top two spots, advancing to the November general election. This outcome set the stage for a competitive race between a Trump-endorsed Republican and an experienced Democratic candidate.
California primary election results confirm Becerra and Hilton advance to general election
The June 2 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election. This solidified Becerra's and Hilton's market prices and ended the viability of other candidates like Chad Bianco and Antonio Villaraigosa.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor primary poll
Xavier Becerra surges to 67%33%
A poll released in early June showed Xavier Becerra pulling ahead of fellow Democrats, reinforcing his frontrunner status and contributing to his market price rise.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor
Kamala Harris plunges to 0%49%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris officially announced she will not run for California governor in 2026, removing a potential major Democratic contender from the race and solidifying the field of candidates.
Steve Hilton endorsed by Donald Trump in California governor race
Steve Hilton surges to 29%20%
Republican Steve Hilton, former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron and Fox News host, received endorsement from former President Donald Trump, boosting his profile and campaign in the California governor’s race. This endorsement helped Hilton gain momentum and polling support.
Steve Hilton reveals major policy plan to cut California living costs
Steve Hilton surges to 25%15%
Steve Hilton announced his Cal-Affordable plan to reduce taxes and energy costs, aiming to appeal to voters concerned about the high cost of living, which helped maintain his market position.
Katie Porter concedes California governor race as Hilton and Becerra lead primary results
Katie Porter drops to 0%8%
Katie Porter conceded the governor's race after trailing in polls and primary results, leading to her market price dropping to zero as she exited the race.
Tom Steyer rallies supporters at Santa Rosa town hall ahead of primary
Tom Steyer drops to 20%10%
Steyer energized a large crowd in Santa Rosa, criticizing ICE and utility monopolies, and positioning himself as a progressive alternative in the final days before the primary election.
Eric Swalwell exits California governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 68%65%
Swalwell's abrupt withdrawal and resignation from Congress following allegations caused a reshuffling of support among Democratic candidates, benefiting rivals like Becerra and Steyer and impacting market probabilities.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum with major ad buys and social media push
Xavier Becerra surges to 67%28%
Becerra's campaign ramped up statewide television and digital advertising, along with social media efforts, significantly increasing his visibility and market support.
Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton remain longshots in California governor race
Chad Bianco drops to 2%6%
Despite endorsements and campaign efforts, Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton maintained low market probabilities, reflecting California's Democratic-leaning electorate and crowded field.
Kamala Harris and Rick Caruso probabilities fall to zero in California governor race
Kamala Harris drops to 0%5%
By late May 2026, market probabilities for Kamala Harris and Rick Caruso dropped to zero, reflecting their diminished campaign viability and lack of traction in the race.
Libertarian candidate Tom Woodard suspends California governor bid and endorses Steve Hilton
Tom Woodard ended his gubernatorial campaign and endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, potentially broadening Hilton's appeal to libertarian and independent voters and strengthening his position in the race.
Libertarian Tom Woodard suspends California governor bid and endorses Steve Hilton
Tom Woodard ended his gubernatorial campaign and endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, potentially broadening Hilton's appeal to libertarian and independent voters and strengthening his position in the race.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls and market after campaign ad blitz
Xavier Becerra jumps to 66%11%
Following a statewide television and digital ad campaign, Becerra's support surged significantly, reflected in a sharp increase in market price as he emerged as a leading candidate.
Xavier Becerra solidifies frontrunner status in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 62%13%
By late May, Becerra's market price reached 62%, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the governor's race, while other candidates' chances diminished significantly.
Xavier Becerra reaches peak market support amid final campaign push
Xavier Becerra surges to 68%17%
Becerra's market support peaked at 68% in late May as his campaign intensified efforts ahead of the June primary, solidifying his position as a leading candidate.
Rick Caruso’s campaign support falls to zero in California governor race
Caruso’s market price dropped to zero, reflecting his campaign’s failure to gain traction and effectively ending his chances in the race.
Libertarian Tom Woodard suspends campaign and endorses Steve Hilton
Steve Hilton jumps to 22%8%
Libertarian candidate Tom Woodard ended his campaign and endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, potentially consolidating libertarian and conservative voters behind Hilton and strengthening his position in the race.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor race as primary nears
Xavier Becerra jumps to 59%10%
Becerra's market price reached its highest point in the analysis window, reflecting growing confidence in his chances to win the governorship as the June primary approaches.
Latest poll confirms Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra lead in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 62%11%
An EVITARUS poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party showed Hilton at 22% and Becerra at 21%, confirming their positions as frontrunners and impacting market confidence and prices.
Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton lead California governor race in polls
Xavier Becerra jumps to 61%12%
Polls in late May showed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton leading the pack, solidifying their status as frontrunners for the June primary and setting the stage for a general election showdown.
Poll shows Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra leading California governor race
Steve Hilton jumps to 22%14%
A poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party showed Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra leading the gubernatorial race, with Hilton slightly ahead, indicating a competitive top-two primary.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra rises to 51%3%
Xavier Becerra's market price rose sharply in May 2026, reflecting increased campaign momentum and possibly consolidating support after Swalwell's exit and Steyer's fluctuating standing.
Tom Steyer announces run for California governor, self-funds campaign heavily
Tom Steyer plunges to 26%23%
Billionaire Tom Steyer entered the race with a focus on affordability and climate, spending over $200 million on his campaign, which initially boosted his market price but ultimately failed to secure a spot in the general election.
PPIC poll shows Becerra and Hilton leading California governor primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 52%13%
A PPIC statewide survey in mid-May 2026 showed Xavier Becerra leading the Democratic field and Steve Hilton leading the Republicans, confirming their front-runner status and influencing market prices.
Xavier Becerra becomes clear favorite in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%18%
Becerra's polling and betting odds surged, making him the leading candidate to win the governorship, reflecting growing confidence among voters and political bettors.
Xavier Becerra now 2026 California governor’s race favorite
Xavier Becerra jumps to 89%8%
Becerra surged to the lead in polls and betting markets, becoming the clear front-runner for governor, reflecting growing confidence in his chances to win the general election.
Steve Hilton launches campaign for California governor with Trump endorsement
Steve Hilton, former Fox News host and UK adviser, entered the race as a Republican candidate with strong backing from Donald Trump, energizing conservative voters.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead over rivals in 2026 California governor contest
Xavier Becerra rises to 93%4%
Becerra surged to become the race favorite, with prediction markets and polls showing him far ahead of rivals, especially after Eric Swalwell’s exit consolidated Democratic support behind him.
Tom Steyer holds Palm Springs town hall focusing on affordability and climate
Tom Steyer drops to 32%7%
Tom Steyer held a town hall in Palm Springs emphasizing affordability, housing, and climate change policies. His campaign focused on lowering electricity costs and building affordable housing, aiming to resonate with voters concerned about cost of living.
Tom Steyer’s chances decline as Xavier Becerra rises in California governor race
Tom Steyer drops to 32%5%
Market prices show Tom Steyer’s support falling from 37% to 32% while Xavier Becerra’s rises to 51%, indicating shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics ahead of the primary.
Stephen Cloobeck drops out of governor race
Cloobeck’s withdrawal removed his remaining support, confirming his market price at zero and consolidating votes among remaining candidates.
Tony Thurmond outlines progressive platform focusing on affordability and education
Tony Thurmond, California State Superintendent of Public Instruction, emphasized affordability, housing, healthcare, and education in his campaign, appealing to progressive voters though polling remains lower than frontrunners.
Final market prices show Xavier Becerra as frontrunner with 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%12%
By the end of the analysis window, Xavier Becerra held a market price of 51%, solidifying his position as the leading candidate, while other candidates' prices declined significantly, reflecting market consensus on likely election outcome.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor market at 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%10%
By mid-May, Becerra had solidified his lead in the market, reflecting his status as the frontrunner in the race.
Katie Porter attacks Xavier Becerra and boosts Steve Hilton in California governor debate
Katie Porter plunges to 0%49%
In the final gubernatorial debate before the primary, Katie Porter publicly adopted a tax cut idea from Steve Hilton, boosting his visibility while attacking frontrunner Xavier Becerra, influencing voter perceptions and campaign dynamics.
Report highlights criticism of Becerra's record and campaign fraud case
A CalMatters report detailed criticism of Becerra's handling of migrant children as health secretary and a campaign fraud case involving his former staff, raising questions about his fitness for office. Despite the negative press, Becerra's market price remained high, reflecting confidence in his campaign resilience.
Katie Porter attacks Becerra and boosts Hilton in governor debate
In the final gubernatorial debate before the primary, Katie Porter publicly adopted a tax cut proposal from Republican Steve Hilton and criticized frontrunner Xavier Becerra. This strategic move aimed to improve her standing and appeal to a broader electorate.
Stephen Cloobeck arrested on felony charges related to fiancée’s case
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 0%14%
Stephen Cloobeck, former gubernatorial candidate, was arrested on suspicion of attempting to prevent witnesses from testifying in a criminal case involving his fiancée. This legal trouble likely ended his political viability, reflected in his market price dropping to zero.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 64%30%
Democrat Xavier Becerra gained significant momentum in polls, emerging as the front-runner in the crowded California governor race, benefiting from his extensive political experience and endorsements.
Xavier Becerra gains market lead
Xavier Becerra jumps to 55%6%
As the field narrowed, Xavier Becerra emerged as a leading candidate in the market's estimation.
Xavier Becerra leads tight California governor race in Emerson College poll
Xavier Becerra surges to 70%21%
An Emerson College poll showed Becerra leading with 19% support among likely voters, with Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer close behind. Becerra's momentum increased after Eric Swalwell's exit, strengthening his frontrunner status and impacting market confidence.
Xavier Becerra reaches peak market support at 55%
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%16%
Xavier Becerra's market price peaked at 55%, indicating strong market confidence in his chances to win the governorship, likely due to positive campaign developments or polling data.
Stephen Cloobeck arrested on suspicion of intimidating witnesses, ending his campaign
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 0%9%
Stephen Cloobeck was arrested on charges related to intimidating victims in a felony case, leading to his withdrawal from the governor's race and endorsement of Eric Swalwell, causing his market price to drop to zero.
Stephen Cloobeck arrested on witness tampering charges
Stephen Cloobeck was arrested on suspicion of intimidating victims in a felony case involving his fiancée, which brought negative attention to his political profile after his withdrawal from the governor's race. This incident likely ended any remaining political ambitions for Cloobeck in 2026.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra leading crowded California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%26%
An Emerson College poll showed Becerra leading with 19% support among likely voters, ahead of Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer, reflecting his surge in the Democratic primary race.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor race in polls
Polls showed Becerra leading a crowded field with significant support, ahead of Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer, indicating his strong position heading into the June primary.
Xavier Becerra leads crowded California governor race in polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 66%33%
Polls showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field with about 19% support, ahead of Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer, indicating a surge in Becerra's campaign momentum ahead of the primary.
Katie Porter receives major endorsement from EMILY’s List for governor bid
Katie Porter was endorsed by EMILY’s List, a prominent Democratic organization supporting pro-choice female candidates, boosting her campaign's visibility and support among progressive voters.
Stephen Cloobeck arrested on felony charges related to witness intimidation
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 0%14%
Stephen Cloobeck was arrested on suspicion of attempting to prevent witnesses from testifying in a criminal case involving his fiancée, negatively impacting his public image and campaign viability.
Stephen Cloobeck arrested in Los Angeles County amid California governor race
Stephen Cloobeck plunges to 0%49%
Stephen Cloobeck, a former gubernatorial candidate, was arrested on suspicion of witness tampering, a scandal that led to his withdrawal and endorsement of Eric Swalwell, impacting the Democratic race.
Stephen Cloobeck arrested on charges related to witness intimidation
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 0%14%
Stephen Cloobeck, who had dropped out of the governor race and endorsed Eric Swalwell, was arrested on suspicion of intimidating victims in a felony case, negatively impacting his political influence and market perception.
Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra tied in California governor race poll
A May 2026 poll showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra tied at 18% each, indicating a tight race and influencing market prices for both candidates.
Xavier Becerra faces scrutiny over campaign advisor's guilty plea
Xavier Becerra rises to 90%2%
Xavier Becerra's campaign was impacted by the guilty plea of his trusted advisor Sean McCluskie for stealing from the campaign, raising questions and affecting public perception.
Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra lead in new California governor poll
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
A Kreate Strategies poll showed Republican Steve Hilton leading with 22% and Democrat Xavier Becerra close behind at 20%, indicating a tight race and influencing market prices for both candidates.
Xavier Becerra leads latest poll in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%18%
Polls showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field ahead of the June primary, surpassing Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer, signaling a shift in voter preferences.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra leads crowded California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 49%21%
A poll released in May 2026 showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field with 19% support, gaining momentum after Eric Swalwell's exit and endorsements, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting his market price.
Xavier Becerra leads in tight California governor race poll
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%8%
A poll showed Democrat Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field with 19% support, closely followed by Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer, indicating a tight race ahead of the June primary.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surging in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%22%
Polling data released in May 2026 showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field with increased support, particularly after Eric Swalwell's exit. This surge was reflected in the market with a significant price increase for Becerra.
Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra lead in California governor race polls
Steve Hilton rises to 10%1%
Polls showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra tied for the lead in the crowded California governor race, reflecting a competitive primary with no clear frontrunner and a fragmented electorate.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in late-stage polling
Xavier Becerra jumps to 55%6%
Becerra's campaign saw a late surge in support, pushing his market price to a peak of 55% by mid-May.
Xavier Becerra requests balanced interview approach in KTLA profile
Xavier Becerra jumps to 61%6%
Becerra's demand for a fair interview rather than a 'gotcha' piece aimed to manage media narratives and improve public image, coinciding with a price increase in the market.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%24%
Becerra's market price surged from near zero to over 50% as his campaign gained traction late in the analysis window, reflecting increased voter support and campaign activity.
Tom Steyer’s polling declines after peak, Becerra rises
Tom Steyer plunges to 47%23%
Steyer’s market price dropped from 70% to 47% while Becerra’s rose, reflecting shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics as the primary approached.
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly, reflecting increased support and momentum in the race, possibly due to campaign efforts and shifts after Swalwell's exit.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls after Eric Swalwell and Betty Yee exit race
Xavier Becerra surges to 64%30%
Following the exit of Eric Swalwell and Betty Yee, Xavier Becerra's polling numbers surged significantly, rising from low single digits to leading the Democratic field. This surge was reflected in market prices increasing from around 34% to 64%.
Xavier Becerra surges in market as primary approaches
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%21%
Becerra's campaign momentum and perceived electability surged, reflected in a sharp increase in market price as the June primary neared.
Steyer’s price drops to 32% after fundraising report shows rivals closing gap
Tom Steyer plunges to 32%23%
A report revealing that Porter and Mahan had raised comparable sums to Steyer caused his price to decline from 55% to 32%, reflecting market concerns over his financial advantage eroding.
Xavier Becerra demands 'profile piece' interview amid campaign scrutiny
Xavier Becerra jumps to 67%12%
In a KTLA interview, Becerra requested a balanced profile rather than a 'gotcha' piece, reflecting his campaign's effort to manage media narratives amid criticism. This event coincided with a notable price increase for Becerra, indicating market reaction to his media strategy and visibility.
Tom Steyer’s price drops to 34% after poll shows steep decline
Tom Steyer drops to 34%10%
A mid‑May poll indicated Steyer falling behind the leading candidates, prompting a market correction that reduced his price from a recent high.
Tom Steyer's support drops sharply after primary polling
Tom Steyer plunges to 26%17%
Following the primary polling, Steyer's market price dropped from 43% to 26%, indicating a loss of momentum and voter support in the race.
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Trump's endorsement of Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, boosted Hilton's profile and market support, reflecting increased Republican activity in the race.
Xavier Becerra's support climbs to 49% in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 49%13%
Becerra's continued rise in market probability to nearly half reflects his strengthening position as a leading Democratic candidate ahead of the primary election.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 56%23%
Becerra's market price surged as he gained traction late in the campaign, possibly due to consolidating Democratic support after Swalwell's exit and Steyer's fluctuating support.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as Newsom critic
Matt Mahan plunges to 27%19%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, emphasizing his moderate stance and criticism of Newsom on homelessness and crime. His entry added a new dynamic to the race, though his market support eventually declined.
Katie Porter leads field for California governor in 2025 fundraising
Katie Porter rises to 24%4%
Katie Porter raised significant grassroots funds, establishing herself as a leading Democratic candidate with strong financial backing early in the race.
Poll shows Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra leading California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%12%
A Kreate Strategies poll showed Republican Steve Hilton leading with 22% and Democrat Xavier Becerra close behind at 20%, reflecting a tightening race and influencing market prices accordingly.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor election market
Xavier Becerra surges to 49%19%
Becerra's market price surged to 49%, overtaking other candidates as he gained traction in the race, reflecting increased support and campaign effectiveness.
Katie Porter’s support collapses in California governor race
Katie Porter dips to 1%3%
Porter’s market price dropped to near zero amid ongoing campaign struggles and negative press, effectively ending her viability as a candidate.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 62%13%
Becerra's campaign saw a notable rise in support, possibly due to consolidating Democratic voters after Swalwell's exit and shifting dynamics in the race.
Democrats fear vote splitting could allow two Republicans in California governor general election
Democratic insiders expressed concern that the crowded Democratic field could split votes enough to let two Republicans advance to the November general election, impacting market perceptions of Republican candidates' chances.
Polls show Xavier Becerra surging to lead California governor primary race
Xavier Becerra surges to 28%18%
Multiple polls in May 2026 showed Xavier Becerra surging ahead in the crowded primary field, gaining significant support among Democratic voters after Swalwell's exit. This polling momentum was reflected in the market with a sharp rise in Becerra's price.
Kreate Strategies poll shows Becerra close behind Steve Hilton in governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%12%
A poll released showed Becerra at 20% support, just behind Republican Steve Hilton at 22%, indicating a tightening race and increased market confidence in Becerra.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum ahead of primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 49%23%
Becerra's market price surged as his campaign gained traction, possibly due to consolidation of Democratic support after Swalwell's exit and increased campaign activity, signaling improved chances in the primary.
Chad Bianco’s controversial election fraud investigation puts spotlight on his campaign
Sheriff Chad Bianco’s investigation into unsubstantiated election fraud claims drew media attention and legal challenges, affecting his campaign’s public image and polling.
Democratic candidates debate in California governor race
A televised debate among Democratic candidates, including Becerra and Villaraigosa, highlighted policy differences and campaign strategies, influencing voter opinions and market dynamics.
Becerra rebounds to 55% after securing major union endorsement
Xavier Becerra jumps to 55%8%
A key labor union endorsement lifted Becerra’s price from 47% to 55%, reviving his momentum heading into the final weeks before the primary.
Rick Caruso’s campaign funds exhausted, ceases advertising
With no remaining cash, Caruso’s visibility vanished, confirming his market price at zero and ending his competitive relevance.
Becerra surges to 48% after high‑profile endorsement
Xavier Becerra surges to 48%31%
A prominent labor union endorsement boosted Becerra’s credibility, lifting his price sharply as the primary approached.
Katie Porter’s price falls to 2% after poll shows her trailing significantly
Katie Porter dips to 2%2%
A new poll released in early May placed Porter well behind the frontrunners, causing a sharp decline in her market price to near‑zero.
Sierra Club endorses Tom Steyer for California governor
Tom Steyer jumps to 39%7%
The Sierra Club endorsed Tom Steyer for governor, highlighting his long record of climate advocacy and environmental leadership. This endorsement boosted Steyer’s progressive credentials and campaign momentum.
Criticism of Xavier Becerra's pandemic leadership emerges from former Biden officials
Xavier Becerra dips to 49%2%
Former colleagues criticized Becerra's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting public perception and causing some volatility in his market price.
Xavier Becerra defends record amid criticism over lost migrant children
Xavier Becerra rises to 55%4%
During a debate, Becerra was pressed on reports of migrant children lost under his watch as HHS Secretary, which brought scrutiny but also media attention to his candidacy, impacting market perceptions.
Steve Hilton outlines plans to make California affordable as governor
Steve Hilton rises to 10%1%
Republican Steve Hilton publicly detailed his campaign platform focused on affordability, including lowering gas prices and cutting taxes, gaining attention and solidifying his position as the GOP frontrunner.
Democratic candidates debate intensifies California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%18%
A heated debate among the main Democratic candidates, including Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa, highlighted key issues like cost of living and healthcare. Becerra's campaign gained momentum following the exit of Eric Swalwell amid scandal, improving his market standing significantly.
California gubernatorial debate highlights affordability and campaign scandals
Xavier Becerra rises to 10%4%
A key debate featured leading candidates including Becerra and Hilton discussing major issues like housing affordability and addressing campaign finance scandals affecting Becerra, influencing voter perceptions ahead of the primary.
Xavier Becerra intensifies campaign efforts in Los Angeles ahead of June primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%5%
Becerra's focused campaign in Los Angeles on affordability and readiness to govern helped boost his standing in polls and market prices as the primary approached.
California Academy of Family Physicians endorses Xavier Becerra for governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 52%4%
The California Academy of Family Physicians endorsed Becerra, providing a significant institutional boost to his campaign and reinforcing his front-runner status.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor primary polls, surging ahead of rivals
Xavier Becerra rises to 90%1%
Polls showed Becerra as the front-runner with significant leads over other candidates, reflecting growing voter confidence and campaign strength.
CNN gubernatorial debate features key candidates including Becerra and Steyer
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%17%
The debate provided a platform for candidates to present policies and challenge opponents, influencing voter perceptions and market prices, notably benefiting Becerra's visibility.
Chad Bianco faces scrutiny over election ballot seizure during governor campaign
Chad Bianco dips to 2%1%
Chad Bianco's controversial seizure of 650,000 ballots drew criticism and legal challenges, impacting his campaign's public perception and market price negatively.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 66%30%
Polls showed Becerra gaining momentum as the front-runner among Democrats, boosting his market price and solidifying his status as a leading candidate for governor.
California billionaire‑tax proposal sparks debate, hurting progressive candidates
Katie Porter dips to 2%2%
The controversial tax on billionaires divided Democrats, pulling support from progressive candidates like Katie Porter and Kamala Harris, whose prices fell to single digits.
Xavier Becerra gains traction in California governor’s race, emphasizing experience and trust
Xavier Becerra surges to 81%31%
Becerra's campaign gained momentum as other Democratic candidates dropped out, positioning him as a steady and experienced leader, which boosted his market standing as the likely Democratic nominee.
Democratic candidates debate in California governor race
Democratic candidates, including Becerra and Villaraigosa, participated in a major debate, allowing voters to assess their platforms on issues like housing, public safety, and affordability, influencing voter perceptions ahead of the primary.
San Francisco's former mayor Willie Brown endorses Tom Steyer for governor
Tom Steyer jumps to 28%8%
Willie Brown, former San Francisco mayor, endorsed Tom Steyer, adding significant political weight and labor support to Steyer's campaign in the final stretch before the primary.
CNN gubernatorial debate features Becerra and rivals
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%11%
Becerra's participation in the CNN debate further increased his visibility and allowed him to defend his record, contributing to his market price rise.
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 93%43%
Polls showed Xavier Becerra gaining momentum and leading the crowded field, reflecting increased market confidence in his chances to win the governorship.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 39%11%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained traction late in the race, reflected in a significant price increase, as he consolidated support from former Swalwell backers and positioned himself as a leading Democratic candidate.
Poll shows Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra tied in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 50%22%
A poll showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra tied at 18% each, indicating a competitive race and influencing market prices for both candidates.
Katie Porter endorses Xavier Becerra after primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 93%44%
After failing to advance in the primary, Katie Porter endorsed fellow Democrat Xavier Becerra for governor, urging unity to prevent a Republican victory. This endorsement aimed to consolidate Democratic support behind Becerra for the general election.
President Donald Trump endorses Republican Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 22%27%
Donald Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile and consolidating Republican support behind him. This endorsement was a key factor in Hilton maintaining a strong position in the race and advancing to the general election, reflected in his market price.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls after primary campaign momentum
Xavier Becerra jumps to 10%7%
Polling data showed a significant rise in support for Xavier Becerra following his campaign efforts and the exit of other candidates, positioning him as a leading Democratic contender for governor.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra catching up with Steve Hilton in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%19%
New polling data from the California Democratic Party showed Becerra rapidly gaining ground on Republican Steve Hilton, signaling a shift in voter preferences and tightening the race. This poll contributed to Becerra's price increase and Hilton's decline in the market.
Steyer’s price falls after poll shows Porter closing gap
Tom Steyer drops to 47%12%
A new poll indicated Porter narrowing the gap with Steyer, pulling Steyer’s price down from 59% to 47% as the market reassessed the race dynamics.
Xavier Becerra's campaign surges ahead in final weeks before primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 41%13%
Becerra's price rose sharply, reflecting increased support and campaign momentum as the primary approached.
Kamala Harris endorses Karen Bass, declines to run for California governor
Former Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection and announced she would not run for California governor, removing a major potential candidate from the race and impacting market dynamics.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton rises to 9%2%
Republican candidate Steve Hilton received public endorsement from former President Donald Trump, boosting his profile and support among conservative voters in California's gubernatorial race, reflected in market price increases.
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor
Rick Caruso drops to 0%7%
Billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso announced he would not run for governor or Los Angeles mayor in 2026, removing a potential high-profile candidate from the race and consolidating the field for other contenders.
Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer launched an extensive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his profile and campaign, significantly impacting his polling and market support despite no clear frontrunner emerging.
Tom Steyer's ad spending boosts his standing in California governor race
Tom Steyer jumps to 44%7%
Steyer's continued heavy spending on ads increased his market price significantly, reinforcing his position as a leading candidate despite a crowded field.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race ahead of primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 47%19%
Becerra's market price surged as he gained traction in the crowded Democratic field, benefiting from Swalwell's exit and consolidating moderate support.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 36%31%
Becerra's campaign saw a surge in support and market probability, rising sharply in early May 2026, reflecting growing voter confidence and campaign effectiveness.
Xavier Becerra reaches 52% market price after late‑April surge
Xavier Becerra rises to 52%4%
Following a series of policy announcements and strong fundraising, Becerra’s market price climbed to its endpoint of 52%, making him the leading candidate as the primary approaches.
Kamala Harris endorses Xavier Becerra for governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 51%3%
Former U.S. Senator Kamala Harris publicly backed Xavier Becerra, giving his market price a final boost to just above 50 percent.
Antonio Villaraigosa featured in California Governor Race coverage
Media coverage of Villaraigosa's campaign helped maintain his visibility and support in the race, contributing to his market price stabilization.
Steyer’s ad spend peaks with $20 million TV buy
Tom Steyer jumps to 43%8%
A fresh wave of Steyer ads temporarily lifted his market price, though the effect was limited as voters remained skeptical of his wealth‑driven campaign.
Antonio Villaraigosa discusses affordability and coalition building in interview
Antonio Villaraigosa rises to 8%3%
Villaraigosa highlighted his platform focused on affordability and coalition building, reinforcing his campaign message and impacting his market price positively.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 30%30%
Xavier Becerra's campaign saw a significant rebound in support, with his market price rising sharply, indicating growing voter confidence in his candidacy.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum after strong debate performance
Xavier Becerra rises to 34%3%
Becerra's performance in a key debate helped solidify his position as a frontrunner, countering criticism and highlighting his experience. This contributed to a rise in his market price.
Xavier Becerra campaigns heavily in Los Angeles ahead of June primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 37%10%
Becerra intensified campaign efforts focusing on affordability and readiness to govern, boosting his standing in polls and market prices as the primary approached.
Democratic candidates debate for California governor
Xavier Becerra jumps to 89%14%
Democratic candidates including Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa participated in a major debate, highlighting policy differences and campaign strengths, which influenced voter perceptions and market prices.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra catching up with Steve Hilton in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%18%
New polling data showed Becerra rapidly gaining ground on Republican Steve Hilton, signaling a shift in voter preferences and tightening the race, which was reflected in market price changes.
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after high‑profile health‑care endorsement
Xavier Becerra surges to 25%25%
A major health‑care union endorsement propelled Becerra’s price from near‑zero to the top of the market, reflecting renewed voter confidence in his experience.
Xavier Becerra's surge in governor race draws fresh scrutiny
Xavier Becerra surges to 48%22%
Xavier Becerra gained significant momentum in the race, becoming the clear front-runner in polls and advancing to the general election, positioning him as the likely Democratic nominee and eventual winner.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra catching up with Steve Hilton in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%16%
A CBS poll indicated Becerra rapidly gaining ground on Republican Steve Hilton, signaling a shift in voter preferences and tightening the race, which was reflected in market price changes.
Xavier Becerra rebounds after debate‑eligibility ruling
Xavier Becerra surges to 17%17%
A state election board ruled Becerra met the debate eligibility criteria, reviving his campaign and sparking a jump from near‑zero to 17% as voters reconsidered his viability.
Xavier Becerra’s price climbs to 48% following endorsement from a major labor union
Xavier Becerra surges to 48%24%
A key endorsement from a statewide labor federation gave Becerra a credibility boost, moving his price from the low‑20s to near‑50% as the primary approached.
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race, drawing fresh scrutiny
Xavier Becerra jumps to 88%14%
Becerra's rising poll numbers and primary campaign momentum positioned him as the Democratic frontrunner, influencing market confidence in his victory.
Steve Hilton launches campaign for California governor
Former UK political adviser and Fox News host Steve Hilton announced his candidacy, bringing a high-profile Republican contender into the race and influencing market dynamics.
Steve Hilton gains Trump endorsement for California governor race
Steve Hilton surges to 28%23%
Steve Hilton received a high-profile endorsement from former President Donald Trump, boosting his profile and support among Republican voters in California.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton plunges to 6%43%
Steve Hilton secured a key endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and support among Republican voters in California, which contributed to his rise as the leading GOP candidate.
Republican Chad Bianco gains attention after law‑and‑order rally
Chad Bianco rises to 4%2%
Sheriff Chad Bianco held a high‑visibility rally emphasizing public safety, boosting his profile among Republican voters and nudging his market price upward.
Steve Hilton’s campaign stalls after low fundraising report
Steve Hilton dips to 6%3%
Financial disclosures showed Hilton’s campaign raised far less than projected, causing his market price to dip back toward single digits.
Katie Porter finishes fifth in California gubernatorial primary, announces stepping away from politics
Katie Porter plunges to 0%49%
Katie Porter finished fifth in the primary with less than 5% of the vote and announced she is stepping away from politics, rebranding her social media to focus on books and personal life.
Becerra’s price slips after controversy over former chief of staff’s indictment
Xavier Becerra plunges to 28%15%
News of a former chief of staff’s federal corruption indictment caused Becerra’s price to fall from 43% to 28%, tempering the earlier surge.
Xavier Becerra rises in California governor race after strong debate performance
Xavier Becerra surges to 39%16%
Becerra's strong debate showing and steady campaign helped him gain support, positioning him as a safe harbor for Democrats amid a shaken race. This contributed to his market price surge.
California gubernatorial debate highlights Becerra's experience and policy plans
Xavier Becerra jumps to 37%10%
During a key debate, Becerra defended his record and experience against rivals, reinforcing his image as a steady candidate and contributing to his rising market price and voter support.
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 10%5%
Trump's endorsement boosted Hilton's profile among Republican voters, briefly increasing his market price, though it remained low overall.
Xavier Becerra performs strongly in California governor debate
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%21%
Becerra's debate performance, defending his experience and plans, helped solidify his position as a leading candidate, contributing to his price increase in the market.
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative that resonated with voters, lifting his market price from single digits to the low‑30s.
Xavier Becerra rises in polls after strong debate performance and campaign strategy
Xavier Becerra surges to 40%35%
Following a debate where Becerra defended his experience against rivals, his campaign gained momentum as voters viewed him as a steady and experienced candidate, reflected in rising poll numbers and market prices.
Democrats fear vote splitting in California governor race could allow two Republicans to advance
With many Democratic candidates running, party insiders expressed concern that the split vote could enable two Republicans to advance to the general election, affecting market prices for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 28%28%
Becerra's market price surged significantly, possibly due to campaign developments or endorsements, marking a recovery from earlier lows.
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race after Swalwell exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 37%32%
Following Eric Swalwell's withdrawal, Xavier Becerra's campaign gained momentum, with polls and prediction markets showing him as the new Democratic frontrunner.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor race amid allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 26%26%
Swalwell suspended his campaign following sexual assault allegations, which he denies, causing a reshuffling of support among Democratic candidates and impacting market prices, particularly benefiting Becerra and Steyer.
Tom Steyer's support sharply declines after peak polling
Tom Steyer plunges to 41%29%
Following his peak, Tom Steyer's polling and market price dropped significantly, indicating waning support possibly due to campaign dynamics or emerging competition.
Tom Steyer’s price spikes to 37% after new TV ads debut
Tom Steyer surges to 37%26%
A fresh wave of high‑budget TV ads boosted Steyer’s visibility, pushing his market price sharply upward before a rapid reversal later in the month.
Katie Porter gains endorsements and leads Democratic field in California governor race
Katie Porter received major endorsements from organizations like EMILY's List and labor unions, boosting her profile and solidifying her position as the leading Democratic candidate in the race.
Xavier Becerra outlines campaign priorities focusing on affordability and public safety
Xavier Becerra rises to 90%2%
Becerra emphasized lowering costs for healthcare, housing, and childcare, and investing in local law enforcement, reinforcing his campaign themes and appealing to a broad voter base.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 37%13%
The withdrawal of a major candidate following sexual assault allegations caused significant market reordering.
Xavier Becerra's support surges in polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
Xavier Becerra's market price rose sharply from near zero to over 27%, reflecting increased polling support or campaign momentum, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events boosting his profile.
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats expressed fears that the large number of candidates could split the vote, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election, impacting market prices for Democratic candidates.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls amid Democratic field uncertainty
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra’s market price rose sharply as he gained traction late in the primary season, capitalizing on the fragmented Democratic vote and Swalwell’s exit.
Steve Hilton gains momentum with Trump endorsement in California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 10%1%
Steve Hilton received endorsement from former President Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market probability as the leading Republican candidate.
Nexstar gubernatorial debate highlights Becerra's experience and policy plans
Xavier Becerra jumps to 27%9%
In a key debate, Becerra defended his record and experience, reinforcing his image as a steady candidate and contributing to his rising market price and voter support.
Xavier Becerra campaigns heavily in Los Angeles ahead of June primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 37%9%
Becerra intensified campaign efforts focusing on affordability and readiness to govern, boosting his polling and market prices as the primary approached.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum after Swalwell's exit and strong debate performance
Xavier Becerra surges to 23%18%
Following Eric Swalwell's withdrawal, Xavier Becerra's campaign gained momentum, with polls showing increased support. His debate performance and steady campaign helped him rise in the market prices.
Steve Hilton launches campaign for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 7%42%
Former Fox News host Steve Hilton announced his candidacy for California governor as a Republican, focusing on economic issues and criticizing Democratic one-party rule. His campaign gained momentum with Trump's endorsement, impacting his market price significantly.
Becerra’s price jumps to 43% after high‑profile debate performance
Xavier Becerra surges to 43%16%
Following a televised debate where Becerra outperformed rivals, his price surged from 27% to 43%, reflecting voter optimism about his debate showing.
Steve Hilton announces run for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 10%39%
Former Fox News host and UK political adviser Steve Hilton announced his candidacy as a Republican, focusing on economic and public safety issues. His entry energized the GOP base and introduced a prominent challenger to Democrats, impacting market prices.
Betty Yee endorses Tom Steyer for California governor
Tom Steyer surges to 37%32%
After suspending her campaign, Betty Yee endorsed Tom Steyer, boosting his campaign momentum and contributing to his polling gains and market price increase.
Chad Bianco faces criticism over election-related ballot seizure
Chad Bianco drops to 3%5%
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco drew scrutiny for seizing over 650,000 ballots amid an investigation into election irregularities, impacting his campaign's public perception and polling.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announces run for California governor
Chad Bianco plunges to 8%42%
Chad Bianco, Riverside County Sheriff, announced his candidacy focusing on law-and-order and anti-regulation themes, energizing conservative voters but later facing controversies that affected his campaign.
Katie Porter’s former staffers defend her amid viral video controversy
Katie Porter plunges to 0%49%
After viral videos showed Katie Porter in tense moments, 30 former staffers publicly defended her leadership and work ethic. This helped stabilize her campaign despite negative media, though her market price declined to zero by mid-2026.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra leading California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%28%
A poll released in April showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field, solidifying his position as the frontrunner and boosting his market price significantly.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%50%
After Eric Swalwell's exit, Xavier Becerra surged in polls to become the leading Democratic candidate for governor, gaining endorsements and increasing fundraising, positioning himself as the front-runner in a crowded field.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from Donald Trump
Steve Hilton rises to 10%2%
Steve Hilton, a Republican candidate and former UK political adviser, received a high-profile endorsement from former President Donald Trump, boosting his profile and support within the Republican base ahead of the primary election.
Chad Bianco profile highlights law-and-order platform and controversies
Chad Bianco dips to 1%2%
A detailed profile of Chad Bianco outlined his law enforcement background, campaign focus on public safety, and controversies including ballot seizures and jail mortality rates, influencing voter and market perceptions.
Katie Porter announces run for California governor
Katie Porter plunges to 20%29%
Former U.S. Representative Katie Porter officially entered the 2026 California governor race, adding to the crowded Democratic field and influencing market interest in her candidacy.
Xavier Becerra gains traction in California governor race emphasizing experience and trust
Xavier Becerra surges to 93%43%
Xavier Becerra, former Health and Human Services Secretary and California Attorney General, gained momentum as a steady and experienced candidate, positioning himself as a unifying figure in a competitive Democratic field.
Xavier Becerra bolts into first place in California governor poll
Xavier Becerra surges to 23%18%
Following Swalwell's exit, Xavier Becerra surged in polls to become the leading Democratic candidate, leveraging his extensive political experience and positioning as a steady leader amid a fragmented field.
Betty Yee ends California governor race bid amid low polling and donor support
Xavier Becerra plunges to 0%49%
Betty Yee, a Democratic candidate, suspended her campaign citing low polling numbers and lack of financial support. Her exit further narrowed the Democratic field, benefiting leading candidates like Xavier Becerra and impacting market prices by reducing competition.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra leading California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 57%9%
A poll by Independent Voter Project showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field with 23% support, signaling growing momentum and increasing market prices for Becerra.
Polls show Xavier Becerra rising after Swalwell exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 37%30%
Following Swalwell's departure, polls indicated a rise in Becerra's support, reflecting increased voter confidence and contributing to his market price surge.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surging to lead in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%21%
Polls released in April 2026 showed Becerra gaining significant support, overtaking rivals including Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton, reflecting growing momentum ahead of the June primary.
California governor primary polls show Xavier Becerra rising
Polls released after Betty Yee's exit showed Becerra rising in support, indicating consolidation of Democratic voters and increasing his market price while competitors declined.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor primary polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 28%23%
Multiple polls in April 2026 showed Xavier Becerra gaining significant support among likely voters, overtaking other Democratic candidates and positioning himself as the frontrunner for the primary.
Betty Yee suspends California governor campaign citing lack of support
Betty Yee dips to 0%1%
Former state Controller Betty Yee ended her campaign due to low polling and fundraising challenges, removing her from contention and affecting market prices.
Poll shows Steyer overtakes Porter in late‑April survey
Tom Steyer jumps to 43%9%
A Public Policy Institute of California poll released in late April placed Tom Steyer ahead of Katie Porter, prompting a modest price rise for Steyer and a decline for Porter.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls after Eric Swalwell exits governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 62%13%
Following the departure of Eric Swalwell amid allegations, Xavier Becerra gained significant polling momentum, becoming the front-runner in the Democratic field and boosting his market price substantially.
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 14%9%
Trump's endorsement of Hilton, a Republican candidate, provided a boost to Hilton's campaign and market price, energizing conservative voters and increasing his visibility in the race.
Katie Porter’s former staffers defend her amid viral video backlash
Katie Porter plunges to 8%41%
Thirty former staffers publicly defended Democratic candidate Katie Porter against negative perceptions from viral videos, emphasizing her leadership and work ethic during the heated gubernatorial campaign.
Betty Yee suspends campaign for California governor
Betty Yee plunges to 0%49%
Betty Yee ended her campaign citing low polling and lack of financial support, narrowing the Democratic field and signaling a shift in voter priorities towards experience and competence.
Betty Yee drops out of California governor’s race
Betty Yee dips to 0%1%
Yee suspended her campaign, sending her market price from 1 % to 0 % (price before = 1, price after = 0).
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surging after late‑stage endorsement
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
A late‑April poll gave Becerra a surprising boost, moving his price from 0% to 27% as voters reconsidered his experience amid a fragmented field.
Tom Steyer’s price falls after $115 million ad spend report
Tom Steyer drops to 24%12%
Media coverage of Steyer’s massive ad expenditure raised concerns about diminishing returns, causing his market price to retreat from its April peak.
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile among Republican voters and impacting his market price positively despite the crowded field.
Xavier Becerra sees surge in voter interest following Swalwell's exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 23%18%
Following Swalwell's withdrawal, Becerra's poll numbers and online interest surged, reflecting increased support among Democratic voters and a boost in market prices.
Emerson College poll shows Xavier Becerra surging after Swalwell's exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 39%39%
A poll released shortly after Swalwell's withdrawal showed Becerra's support rising significantly among Democratic voters, which was reflected in the market price increase.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surges to 10% support after Swalwell exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 26%21%
An Emerson College poll revealed a significant increase in voter support for Xavier Becerra following Swalwell's departure, boosting his market price and positioning him as a leading candidate.
Antonio Villaraigosa pledges to serve only one term if elected governor
Antonio Villaraigosa plunges to 5%45%
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced a commitment to serve only one term as governor if elected, aiming to appeal to voters seeking experienced leadership with a fresh approach.
Tom Steyer surges in polls with focus on affordability, peaking mid-April
Tom Steyer surges to 59%39%
Tom Steyer's campaign peaked in mid-April with a strong focus on affordability, briefly overtaking other candidates before his support began to decline in May.
Tom Steyer spends $115 million on TV ads in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 67%55%
Steyer’s unprecedented ad buy dramatically increased his visibility, pushing his market price from the low teens to a peak of 67% within days.
Tom Steyer’s polling surges amid heavy ad spending in governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 40%27%
Steyer's extensive ad campaign led to a significant increase in polling numbers, briefly positioning him as a leading Democratic candidate in the race.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 30%17%
Tom Steyer's unprecedented spending on TV and radio ads increased his visibility and polling numbers, making him a leading Democratic contender despite a crowded field. This spending binge influenced market prices reflecting his improved chances.
Tom Steyer spends over $115 million on California governor campaign ads
Tom Steyer jumps to 26%8%
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending campaign aimed to boost his profile and chances in the crowded Democratic field, significantly impacting his market probability and positioning him as a top contender.
Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 42%16%
Tom Steyer's unprecedented $115 million ad spending campaign saturated media markets, boosting his visibility and market price. Despite heavy spending, his campaign faced skepticism about translating money into votes.
Tom Steyer's campaign spending reaches record levels
Tom Steyer surges to 70%60%
Steyer's massive ad spending spree significantly impacted his visibility and polling, though it faced criticism from rivals.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%52%
Tom Steyer launched a massive advertising campaign spending over $115 million, dominating media presence. Despite heavy spending, his polling gains were limited, causing market volatility.
Tom Steyer peaks in polling after heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%21%
Steyer’s market price surged to a peak of 70% reflecting his dominant ad campaign and perceived frontrunner status in the Democratic field.
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator, boosting Hilton's profile and market price in the governor's race, especially among Republican voters.
Tom Steyer's ad blitz peaks, boosting his polling numbers
Tom Steyer surges to 70%54%
Steyer's continued heavy spending on ads led to a peak in his market price, reflecting increased voter attention and support during this period.
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats feared their large number of candidates could split votes, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance in the top-two primary system, impacting market prices for GOP candidates.
Tom Steyer's polling peaks amid heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%50%
Tom Steyer's polling surged to a peak of 70% following his extensive advertising campaign, marking his highest market price. However, this peak was short-lived as subsequent events and competition tempered his lead.
Tom Steyer campaign surges in market
Tom Steyer surges to 70%44%
Heavy advertising spending by Tom Steyer led to a significant increase in his market price.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends over $115 million on California governor campaign ads
Tom Steyer surges to 58%42%
Steyer's massive ad spending surge increased his visibility and polling numbers, temporarily boosting his market price despite a crowded field and no clear frontrunner emerging.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor and critic of Governor Newsom, announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat focused on homelessness and crime, which shifted some voter attention and market support.
Tom Steyer's campaign peaks with record ad spending and polling
Tom Steyer surges to 70%41%
Steyer's campaign reached a peak in market price due to his heavy spending and growing grassroots support, making him a top contender in the Democratic field.
Xavier Becerra gains traction as leading candidate for California governor
Xavier Becerra, former California Attorney General and U.S. Health Secretary, gained momentum in the governor's race by emphasizing his experience and trustworthiness, positioning himself as the leading Democratic candidate ahead of the primary.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum as leading Democratic candidate for California governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 87%37%
Xavier Becerra, former California Attorney General and U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, gained traction in the governor's race emphasizing his experience and trustworthiness. His campaign focused on economic opportunity and healthcare, helping him surge in polls ahead of the primary.
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market price despite the crowded field.
Xavier Becerra gains traction in California governor’s race emphasizing experience and trust
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%39%
Becerra’s campaign gained momentum highlighting his extensive public service and trustworthiness, positioning him as a steady leader amid a fragmented field, which boosted his polling and market standing.
Xavier Becerra gains traction emphasizing experience and trust
Xavier Becerra surges to 88%36%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained momentum by highlighting his extensive public service and experience, positioning him as a reliable leader amid a fragmented field. This shift helped him surge in polls and market prices, solidifying his frontrunner status.
Eric Swalwell exits California governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 20%15%
Eric Swalwell's departure from the race amid allegations led to a consolidation of Democratic support around Xavier Becerra, boosting Becerra's polling and market price.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor race amid sexual misconduct allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 33%32%
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign for California governor following sexual assault allegations, dramatically reshaping the race and boosting other candidates like Xavier Becerra. This event caused a significant market shift.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations
Eric Swalwell plunges to 0%49%
Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual misconduct allegations, leading to rapid loss of support from Democratic leaders and staff resignations. This event dramatically reshaped the race, opening space for other candidates to gain ground.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations
Eric Swalwell abruptly ended his campaign following multiple sexual misconduct allegations, causing a significant reshuffle in the Democratic field and boosting other candidates like Xavier Becerra.
Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after debate eligibility clarification
Xavier Becerra surges to 21%21%
The California Secretary of State clarified that Xavier Becerra met the debate eligibility criteria, leading to a surge in his market price from single digits to the low‑20s.
Eric Swalwell ends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell abruptly ended his gubernatorial campaign following allegations of sexual assault, which he denied. His exit reshaped the race, benefiting candidates like Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer, and affected market dynamics.
CBS poll shows Becerra rising, Steyer and Hilton competitive in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 34%18%
A CBS poll indicated Becerra gaining ground with 13%, while Steyer and Hilton remained competitive, reflecting shifting voter preferences ahead of the primary.
Eric Swalwell drops out of California governor race amid allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 26%21%
Eric Swalwell exited the race following allegations of sexual misconduct, which led to a surge in support and market price for Xavier Becerra as he absorbed Swalwell's former supporters.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 23%19%
Eric Swalwell, an early Democratic frontrunner, abruptly ended his campaign following multiple sexual misconduct allegations, causing a significant reshuffle in the Democratic field. This event boosted Xavier Becerra's standing as Democratic voters consolidated behind him, reflected in his rising market price.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 0%5%
Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual misconduct allegations, which caused a rapid collapse of his candidacy and reshaped the Democratic field, benefiting candidates like Xavier Becerra.
Eric Swalwell exits California governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Swalwell's withdrawal reshaped the Democratic field, benefiting candidates like Xavier Becerra and impacting market dynamics.
Allegations cause Eric Swalwell to exit California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 20%15%
Eric Swalwell withdrew from the governor's race following credible sexual assault allegations, which reshaped the Democratic field and allowed Xavier Becerra to surge in support.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 59%41%
Tom Steyer launched an extensive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his profile and chances, dominating media presence and influencing market prices despite criticism of trying to buy the election.
Sexual misconduct allegations against Eric Swalwell impact California governor race
Allegations against Eric Swalwell led to his exit from the race, consolidating Democratic support behind Xavier Becerra and affecting market dynamics.
Sexual misconduct allegations surface against Eric Swalwell
Eric Swalwell plunges to 0%49%
Multiple women, including a former staffer, accused Eric Swalwell of sexual misconduct, leading to a rapid collapse of his campaign. The allegations triggered investigations and widespread calls for him to drop out of the governor's race.
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 49%5%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, significantly consolidating Republican support behind Hilton and boosting his campaign momentum and market price.
Public Policy Institute of California poll shows tight race among top candidates
Tom Steyer jumps to 28%14%
A late March to early April poll by PPIC showed a close contest among Democrats Steyer and Porter and Republicans Hilton and Bianco, reflecting uncertainty and competitive dynamics in the race.
Trump endorses Steve Hilton over Chad Bianco in California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 9%3%
President Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, bypassing Chad Bianco, reshaping the Republican primary dynamics and boosting Hilton's campaign momentum.
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton surges to 44%37%
Former Fox News host Steve Hilton received a high-profile endorsement from President Donald Trump, consolidating Republican support and boosting his campaign visibility and market probability.
Xavier Becerra’s price jumps 17 points after debate performance
Xavier Becerra surges to 17%17%
Becerra delivered a strong showing in the first televised debate, resonating with voters and driving his market price up sharply from single digits to the mid‑teens.
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor, snubs Chad Bianco
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton for California governor, bypassing fellow Republican Chad Bianco. This endorsement boosted Hilton's profile and campaign momentum while complicating Bianco's path in the race.
Donald Trump endorses Republican Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 22%27%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile and consolidating conservative support in the gubernatorial race, impacting the Republican field dynamics.
President Trump endorses GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton
Steve Hilton rises to 6%3%
President Trump publicly endorsed Republican candidate Steve Hilton, giving the campaign a major boost and lifting Hilton’s market price from the low single digits to double‑digits.
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 15%8%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile and support in the race, while negatively impacting fellow Republican Chad Bianco's standing.
President Donald Trump endorses Republican Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 10%39%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile and campaign in the California governor’s race. This endorsement helped consolidate Republican support and increased Hilton's market standing.
Tom Steyer holds town hall in Palm Springs focusing on affordability
Tom Steyer plunges to 18%31%
Democratic candidate Tom Steyer emphasized affordability and proposed tax reforms and energy competition at a Palm Springs town hall, aiming to boost his campaign momentum in the crowded gubernatorial race.
President Trump endorses Republican Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 8%41%
President Donald Trump endorsed Steve Hilton in April 2026, boosting Hilton's profile and support among Republican voters, which contributed to his rise in the market price to 8%.
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 60%11%
Trump's endorsement of Steve Hilton boosted Hilton's profile and consolidated Republican support, significantly impacting the race by positioning Hilton as the leading GOP candidate.
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 25%10%
Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting his campaign and consolidating GOP support. The endorsement was seen as pivotal in the crowded primary and increased Hilton's visibility and polling numbers.
Emerson College poll shows Becerra surging after Swalwell drops out
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
Following Eric Swalwell's exit, a new poll showed Becerra tied with Katie Porter at 10%, marking a significant rise in support and boosting his campaign momentum.
Xavier Becerra throws his hat in the ring in California governor's race
Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and California Attorney General, officially entered the governor's race, bringing significant experience and name recognition to the Democratic field, which shifted market expectations.
Xavier Becerra announces run for California governor
Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra announced his candidacy for California governor, positioning himself as a pro-teacher, pro-public education candidate focused on affordability, boosting his market price.
Matt Mahan’s campaign struggles with strategist departure amid low polling
Matt Mahan drops to 8%12%
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s campaign faced internal turmoil with the departure of his top strategist due to strategic differences, coinciding with weak polling numbers and fundraising challenges, impacting his market price.
Xavier Becerra officially enters California governor race
Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and California Attorney General Xavier Becerra announced his candidacy, emphasizing his experience and plans to address affordability and healthcare. His entry boosted his market standing.
Xavier Becerra officially announces candidacy for California governor
Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra declared his run for governor, leveraging his extensive political experience. His announcement marked the start of his campaign momentum, reflected in rising market prices.
Xavier Becerra officially announces bid for California governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 94%44%
Xavier Becerra declared his candidacy for governor, emphasizing affordability and fighting for the California Dream, which led to a steady rise in his market price from 50% to 94%.
Xavier Becerra intensifies campaign with focus on affordability and readiness
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra ramped up his campaign efforts, emphasizing his experience and policy specifics to appeal to voters ahead of the June primary. This strategic push helped increase his market price significantly.
Xavier Becerra announces candidacy for California governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 5%1%
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra entered the race, positioning himself as a pro-education, affordability-focused Democrat. His entry added a strong contender to the Democratic field, eventually leading to a surge in polling.
Xavier Becerra announces bid for California governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 50%45%
Xavier Becerra officially announced his candidacy for governor, positioning himself as a leading Democratic candidate focused on affordability and public service.
Sheriff Chad Bianco puts election fraud investigation on hold amid controversy
Chad Bianco drops to 3%5%
Chad Bianco's investigation into unsubstantiated election fraud claims was halted by the California Supreme Court, drawing criticism and impacting his campaign momentum.
Sheriff Chad Bianco's controversial election fraud investigation put on hold
Chad Bianco dips to 3%2%
Chad Bianco's investigation into election fraud claims was paused by the California Supreme Court, causing uncertainty and volatility in his market price.
Chad Bianco investigation into election ballots put on hold
Sheriff Chad Bianco's controversial investigation into election ballots was paused by the California Supreme Court, drawing attention to his campaign and impacting public perception.
Sheriff Chad Bianco investigation into election fraud claims put on hold
Chad Bianco's controversial investigation into unsubstantiated election fraud claims was paused by the California Supreme Court, impacting his campaign narrative and public perception during the race.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announces run for California governor
Chad Bianco plunges to 0%50%
Chad Bianco, Riverside County Sheriff and a strong supporter of President Trump, announced his candidacy for California governor, emphasizing law-and-order policies and opposition to Sacramento's Democratic leadership. His entry added a prominent Republican candidate to the race.
Chad Bianco pauses controversial election fraud investigation
Chad Bianco drops to 3%5%
Sheriff Chad Bianco put his investigation into unsubstantiated election fraud claims on hold after criticism and a California Supreme Court halt. This development likely affected his campaign momentum and market perception negatively.
Chad Bianco's controversial election fraud investigation put on hold
Chad Bianco drops to 3%5%
Bianco's investigation into election fraud claims was paused amid legal challenges, affecting his campaign's momentum and market perception.
Chad Bianco initiates controversial investigation into election fraud claims
Chad Bianco jumps to 13%7%
Sheriff Chad Bianco began an investigation into unsubstantiated election fraud claims, which drew criticism and legal challenges, impacting his campaign's public perception and market price.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 49%31%
Steyer's unprecedented spending on ads significantly raised his profile and market price, positioning him as a top contender despite no prior elected office experience.
Butch Ware's lawsuit to restore ballot access rejected by Sacramento judge
Butch Ware plunges to 0%50%
Butch Ware's legal challenge to regain his place on the primary ballot was rejected, confirming his disqualification and impacting his market price negatively.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes over 650,000 ballots amid election fraud probe
Chad Bianco plunges to 8%42%
Chad Bianco, a leading Republican gubernatorial candidate, seized ballots from a 2025 special election to investigate alleged voter fraud, drawing national attention and impacting his campaign's visibility and support.
Chad Bianco gains national attention after seizing 650,000 ballots in election investigation
Chad Bianco rises to 9%2%
Bianco's controversial seizure of ballots in Riverside County brought him national spotlight and scrutiny, affecting his campaign's public perception and polling.
Chad Bianco seizes 650,000 ballots in election fraud investigation
Chad Bianco rises to 10%2%
Bianco's seizure of ballots in Riverside County brought national attention and controversy to his campaign, impacting his market position and public perception.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes 650,000 ballots, thrusting him into the governor’s spotlight
Chad Bianco rises to 3%2%
Bianco’s seizure of 650,000 ballots in Riverside County drew national media attention, raising his market price from 1 % to 3 % (price before = 1, price after = 3).
Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes over 650,000 ballots in election fraud probe
Chad Bianco plunges to 1%49%
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican gubernatorial candidate, seized hundreds of thousands of ballots from a 2025 special election citing election integrity concerns. This controversial action drew national attention and legal challenges, impacting Bianco's campaign and market support.
Chad Bianco seizes over 650,000 ballots in election fraud probe
Chad Bianco plunges to 10%40%
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seized more than 650,000 ballots from a 2025 special election, claiming investigation into voter fraud. This controversial action drew national attention and criticism, causing a decline in his market support.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes over 650,000 ballots in election probe
Chad Bianco dips to 4%4%
Chad Bianco seized a large number of ballots from a 2025 special election, triggering legal battles and controversy that damaged his campaign momentum and public trust, leading to a sharp decline in his election chances.
Chad Bianco seizes over 650,000 ballots in election fraud probe
Sheriff Chad Bianco seized ballots from a 2025 special election, triggering legal battles and public controversy. This event brought national attention to his campaign and affected his polling and market position.
Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes over 650,000 ballots in election fraud probe
Chad Bianco drops to 2%6%
Bianco's seizure of ballots from a 2025 special election triggered legal battles and controversy, affecting his public image and market perception of his viability as a candidate.
Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes ballots amid election fraud investigation
Chad Bianco plunges to 7%43%
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seized over 650,000 ballots from a 2025 special election, sparking legal battles and impacting his campaign's public perception and market support.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes 650,000 ballots amid election fraud claims
Chad Bianco plunges to 8%42%
Chad Bianco, a Republican gubernatorial candidate, seized ballots from a 2025 election to investigate alleged discrepancies, drawing national attention and legal challenges. This action increased his profile but also sparked controversy and criticism.
Public Policy Institute of California releases poll showing tight three‑way race
Katie Porter jumps to 34%9%
The poll placed Steyer, Porter, and Republican candidates within a few points, prompting a market correction that lowered Steyer’s price and lifted Porter’s.
Chad Bianco's department seizes over 650,000 Riverside County ballots amid election fraud claims
Chad Bianco drops to 5%5%
Bianco's investigation into alleged ballot discrepancies brought national attention and controversy, impacting his campaign and market support negatively.
Court upholds removal of Green Party candidate Butch Ware from governor ballot
Butch Ware dips to 0%1%
A judge upheld the Secretary of State’s decision to keep Green Party candidate Butch Ware off the June primary ballot, effectively ending his campaign and dropping his market price to zero.
Green Party candidate Butch Ware removed from California primary ballot
Butch Ware plunges to 0%50%
Butch Ware, the Green Party candidate, was removed from the June 2026 primary ballot due to failure to submit correct tax returns on time, leading to his market price dropping to zero.
California Secretary of State removes Butch Ware from primary ballot
Butch Ware plunges to 0%50%
Butch Ware was disqualified from the June primary ballot due to failure to file correct tax returns on time, forcing him to continue his campaign as a write-in candidate, limiting his visibility and chances.
Katie Porter’s campaign suffers after staff controversy
Katie Porter dips to 11%2%
Reports of internal staff disputes and criticism of Porter’s leadership led to a modest decline in her market price as donors grew cautious.
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 10%5%
Trump’s endorsement boosted the Republican’s profile, pulling votes from moderate Republicans and contributing to a modest rise in Hilton’s price after a long slump.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces run for California governor
Matt Mahan plunges to 17%29%
Mahan entered the race positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, gaining initial market attention but later losing ground as the race evolved.
Katie Porter announces run for California governor
Former U.S. Representative Katie Porter officially entered the governor's race, positioning herself as a progressive fighter against Trump-era policies. Early polling showed her as a leading Democratic candidate.
Steve Hilton launches campaign for California governor
Steve Hilton, former Fox News host and UK political adviser, officially entered the race as a Republican candidate, focusing on economic issues and criticizing Democratic governance, which boosted his market price.
Former US Rep. Katie Porter announces run for California governor
Katie Porter plunges to 22%27%
Katie Porter entered the crowded Democratic field with a platform focused on holding Trump accountable and lowering the cost of living, gaining early attention and endorsements, impacting market dynamics for her candidacy.
Polling shows tight race among Steyer, Porter, Hilton, and Bianco
Late winter polling indicated a close contest among Democratic candidates Steyer and Porter and Republicans Hilton and Bianco, reflecting market volatility and uncertainty.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra dips to 1%3%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining candidates, notably Tom Steyer.
Butch Ware discusses Green Party gubernatorial campaign and progressive platform
In an interview, Butch Ware outlined his campaign goals including affordable housing, universal healthcare, and disrupting the two-party system, emphasizing grassroots support and social justice.
Eric Swalwell drops out after sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 21%20%
Following multiple assault accusations, Swalwell withdrew from the race and resigned from Congress, causing a sharp decline in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining Democrats, especially Xavier Becerra.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 27%22%
Swalwell abruptly ended his campaign following serious allegations, causing a rapid decline in his market price and redistributing support among other candidates.
Tom Steyer ramps up spending in California governor race
Tom Steyer rises to 20%2%
Billionaire Tom Steyer increased his campaign spending dramatically, saturating media markets with ads, which boosted his polling and market price despite not breaking away as a clear frontrunner.
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton, giving the outsider a brief surge in market price.
Public Policy Institute of California releases poll showing tight four‑way race
The poll, released just before the primary, showed Steyer, Porter, Hilton and Bianco within a few points, prompting a brief rally for each as voters reassessed viability.
Tom Steyer spends $66 million on California governor's race campaign
Billionaire Tom Steyer significantly increased his campaign spending, boosting his profile and polling in the Democratic primary, influencing market dynamics.
Stephen Cloobeck enters the 2026 California governor's race
Stephen Cloobeck plunges to 13%36%
Businessman and philanthropist Stephen Cloobeck announced his candidacy, adding a pro-business voice to the crowded Democratic field, which briefly increased his market price before he later dropped out.
Stephen Cloobeck announces run for California governor
Stephen Cloobeck plunges to 12%37%
Businessman Stephen Cloobeck entered the crowded Democratic field with significant personal funding, briefly influencing the market before later dropping out and endorsing Eric Swalwell.
Stephen Cloobeck blocked from prediction market after supporting Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck dips to 0%1%
Stephen Cloobeck was restricted from trading in the prediction market after attempting to support Eric Swalwell, reflecting campaign dynamics and affecting his market presence.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra drops to 0%5%
Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, causing a sharp collapse in his market price and redistributing support among other candidates, notably benefiting Becerra and Steyer.
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends campaign
Xavier Becerra dips to 0%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading him to suspend his gubernatorial bid and later resign from Congress, causing his market price to plummet to near zero.
Katie Porter draws attention with explicit anti-Trump message at California Democratic Convention
Katie Porter dips to 12%3%
Democratic candidate Katie Porter held up a sign reading “F**k TRUMP” during her speech, emphasizing opposition to Trump but receiving mixed reactions. This event highlighted her combative style and affected her campaign's public perception.
Antonio Villaraigosa announces run for California governor in 2026
Antonio Villaraigosa plunges to 5%45%
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a problem solver and adding experience to the Democratic field, impacting market interest.
Antonio Villaraigosa campaigns for California governor
Antonio Villaraigosa plunges to 5%45%
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa officially announced his 2026 gubernatorial campaign, positioning himself as a problem solver with executive experience, which initially raised his profile in the Democratic field.
Antonio Villaraigosa pledges to serve only one term if elected governor
Antonio Villaraigosa dips to 4%1%
Villaraigosa publicly committed to a one-term governorship, aiming to distinguish himself in the crowded Democratic field, but this did not significantly improve his electoral prospects.
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a credibility boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price modestly.
Poll shows tight three‑way race among Steyer, Porter, and Hilton
A Public Policy Institute of California poll revealed Steyer, Porter, and Hilton within a few points of each other, causing volatility across their market prices as voters reassessed the race dynamics.
National Governors Association meeting unravels after Trump excludes Democrats
The exclusion of Democratic governors from a White House event highlighted the intense partisan polarization affecting the political landscape.
Steyer’s ad spend peaks, TV buys hit $115 million
Tom Steyer surges to 59%37%
The release of a spending report confirming $115 million in ad buys reinforced Steyer’s financial dominance, pushing his price up from 22% to 59% in a single week.
Katie Porter announces run for California governor
Katie Porter plunges to 20%29%
Former U.S. Representative Katie Porter announced her candidacy for governor, positioning herself as a progressive counterweight to Trump and focusing on lowering the cost of living. Her entry added a strong Democratic contender to the crowded field, impacting the race dynamics.
Steve Hilton takes lead in California governor race in new poll
Steve Hilton plunges to 22%27%
A poll showed Republican Steve Hilton leading the crowded California governor's race, signaling his rising profile and consolidating Republican support ahead of the primary.
Steve Hilton jumps to the lead in California governor's race
Republican Steve Hilton surged to the lead in polls for the California governor race, gaining significant support among Republican and independent voters. His campaign emphasized reducing taxes and ending Democratic dominance in the state.
Steve Hilton surges to lead in California governor race poll
A new poll showed Steve Hilton taking a surprise lead in the crowded California governor's race, boosting his profile and market odds as a leading Republican candidate.
Steve Hilton launches campaign for California governor
Steve Hilton, former UK political adviser and Fox News host, announced his candidacy as a Republican, gaining attention and later Trump's endorsement.
Chad Bianco announces run for California governor
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announced his candidacy for governor, positioning himself as a conservative law-and-order candidate and the first major Republican in the race, energizing the GOP base.
Chad Bianco officially launches campaign for California governor
Chad Bianco jumps to 12%7%
Sheriff Chad Bianco formally launched his campaign, emphasizing law-and-order themes and criticizing Democratic governance in California. His campaign gained attention for its tough stance on crime and immigration, affecting his market support.
Chad Bianco announces candidacy for California governor
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican and Trump supporter, announced his run for California governor focusing on law-and-order and criticizing Democratic leadership.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announces candidacy for California governor
Chad Bianco, a Republican and Riverside County Sheriff, officially launched his campaign for governor, focusing on law-and-order policies and challenging Democratic leadership in Sacramento.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surges to 24% ahead of primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 24%24%
A late‑February poll gave Becerra a notable boost, reflected in a rapid price increase from near‑zero to the mid‑20s, marking the start of his comeback.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announces run for California governor
Chad Bianco jumps to 9%8%
Chad Bianco entered the race as a Republican candidate, initially gaining some market support but later declining as Democratic candidates consolidated support.
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democratic insiders expressed fears that the large number of candidates could split the vote, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance, increasing uncertainty in the race.
Former LA mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announces 2026 governor run
Antonio Villaraigosa rises to 5%3%
Villaraigosa officially entered the race, giving the former mayor a brief bump in market price before the field condensed.
Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announces 2026 California governor run
Antonio Villaraigosa jumps to 5%5%
Antonio Villaraigosa announced his candidacy for governor, highlighting his experience and bipartisan approach, which influenced his market price to increase from near zero to a significant level.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announces 2026 California governor run
Antonio Villaraigosa, former LA mayor and state assembly speaker, announced his candidacy for governor, emphasizing his experience and focus on affordability and public safety, adding a notable Democratic contender to the race.
Antonio Villaraigosa officially launches 2026 governor campaign
Antonio Villaraigosa rises to 9%4%
Antonio Villaraigosa formally launched his campaign for California governor, emphasizing his experience and pledging to serve only one term. This event renewed his visibility in the race and aimed to consolidate support among Democratic voters.
Antonio Villaraigosa announces run for California governor
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced his candidacy for governor, emphasizing his experience and pledging to serve only one term. His entry added a notable Democratic contender to the race.
Antonio Villaraigosa officially announces 2026 governor run
Antonio Villaraigosa rises to 9%4%
Antonio Villaraigosa formally announced his 2026 gubernatorial campaign, emphasizing his experience and focus on affordability and public safety. This announcement renewed his presence in the race, though he remained a lower-tier candidate in polls.
Former US Rep. Katie Porter announces run for California governor
Katie Porter entered the crowded Democratic field emphasizing consumer protection and opposition to Trump policies, gaining early attention and endorsements.
Antonio Villaraigosa files paperwork to run for California governor
Antonio Villaraigosa rises to 5%2%
Villaraigosa formalized his campaign by filing official paperwork, signaling a serious bid and increasing his visibility in the race, which influenced market prices slightly upward.
California Democrats fear vote splitting could allow two Republicans in general election
Democratic insiders expressed concern that the large number of Democratic candidates could split the vote enough to let two Republicans advance to the November general election under California's top-two primary system. This raised the profile of Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, affecting their market prices.
Antonio Villaraigosa officially files to run for California governor
Antonio Villaraigosa rises to 9%4%
Antonio Villaraigosa filed official paperwork to run for governor, formalizing his campaign focused on affordability, public safety, and economic opportunity, signaling a serious bid in the Democratic primary.
Antonio Villaraigosa announces 2026 California governor run
Antonio Villaraigosa plunges to 7%43%
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa officially announced his candidacy for governor, bringing experience and name recognition to the Democratic field and causing a rise in his market price.
Butch Ware hosts 'Revolutionary Rally' promoting his California governor campaign
Green Party candidate Butch Ware held a rally to promote his campaign and platform, increasing his visibility though his market price remained low due to limited ballot access and write-in status.
Eric Swalwell withdraws amid sexual‑assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 12%23%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop for candidates perceived as his nearest competitors, especially Tom Steyer and Katie Porter.
Xavier Becerra emphasizes economic opportunity in governor race
Becerra highlighted economic opportunity and affordability as central themes in his campaign, presenting himself as a candidate focused on restoring the California Dream and addressing the state's affordability crisis.
Stephen Cloobeck enters the 2026 California governor’s race
Businessman and philanthropist Stephen Cloobeck announced his candidacy, emphasizing a pro-business tone and criticizing California's economic challenges, adding to the Democratic field.
Xavier Becerra participates in Commonwealth Club forum outlining economic opportunity focus
Xavier Becerra jumps to 16%13%
Becerra emphasized economic opportunity and healthcare as central themes, reinforcing his campaign message and boosting his profile among voters.
Xavier Becerra emphasizes experience in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 26%26%
Xavier Becerra, former California attorney general and U.S. health secretary, highlighted his extensive public service and experience as key strengths in his campaign for governor, helping him gain traction and voter trust in a competitive field.
Swalwell resigns from Congress amid sexual‑assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 44%26%
The sudden exit of a leading Democratic contender removed a potential top‑two finisher, causing a sharp drop in his market price and redistributing support to remaining candidates.
Eric Swalwell withdraws amid sexual‑assault allegations
Tom Steyer dips to 22%2%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a major contender, causing his own price to collapse and shifting support to Steyer and Porter, which helped Steyer’s price dip slightly while Porter’s fell modestly.
Butch Ware hosts 'Revolutionary Rally' to promote California governor campaign
Butch Ware plunges to 0%50%
Green Party candidate Butch Ware held a rally featuring prominent activists and artists to energize his campaign. Despite legal challenges to his ballot access, Ware's activism and platform gained attention, though his market price remained low.
Katie Porter leads 2025 fundraising for California governor race
Katie Porter raised $6.1 million in 2025, the highest among candidates, demonstrating strong grassroots support and positioning her as a leading Democratic contender early in the race.
Katie Porter faces criticism over campaign conduct in California governor race
Katie Porter plunges to 5%15%
Porter faced negative media coverage regarding her treatment of staff and a tense TV interview, which contributed to a decline in her market price.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as centrist Democrat
Matt Mahan plunges to 20%26%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy for governor, positioning himself as a pragmatic centrist focused on public safety, homelessness, and affordability. His entry added a new dynamic to the crowded Democratic field.
Matt Mahan campaign gains momentum
Matt Mahan surges to 54%35%
Market confidence in Mahan surged following early campaign activities and media attention.
Steve Hilton announces candidacy for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 6%43%
Former Fox News host and UK political adviser Steve Hilton declared his run as a Republican candidate, gaining endorsement from Donald Trump and shaking up the GOP side of the race.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton rises to 10%2%
Steve Hilton, Republican candidate for California governor, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and fundraising in a state where Republicans face challenges.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, presenting himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom on homelessness and crime, adding to the crowded Democratic field and influencing market dynamics.
Rep. Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor's race amid sexual assault allegations
Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, which he denies, and announced his resignation from Congress. His exit reshaped the Democratic field, allowing rivals like Steyer and Porter to vie for his supporters, impacting market prices for those candidates.
Matt Mahan campaign faces initial volatility
Matt Mahan plunges to 9%37%
Following his entry, the market adjusted expectations for Mahan's candidacy, leading to a significant price drop.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces candidacy for California governor
Matt Mahan entered the race as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, focusing on homelessness and crime. His entry added to the crowded field and influenced market dynamics for his chances.
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or LA mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Billionaire developer Rick Caruso decided against running for California governor or Los Angeles mayor in early 2026, citing family considerations and political climate, leading to his market price falling to zero.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Mahan's entry as a moderate Democrat and Newsom critic added a new dynamic to the race, briefly raising his market price as he positioned himself as a 'fixer' for California's issues.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 20%26%
Mahan, a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, announced his candidacy, briefly raising his market probability as he positioned himself as a pragmatic alternative in the crowded field.
Steve Hilton announces candidacy for California governor
Former Fox News host and UK political adviser Steve Hilton entered the race as a Republican, focusing on reversing Democratic policies and gaining Trump's endorsement, which boosted his market price.
Katie Porter leads Democratic field in fundraising and polling
Katie Porter jumps to 19%5%
Katie Porter led the Democratic field in fundraising with over $6 million raised from grassroots supporters and held a strong polling position, reflecting significant support despite later campaign challenges.
Kamala Harris' vetting team questioned Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on Israeli ties
Kamala Harris plunges to 5%44%
During the 2024 VP vetting, Kamala Harris' team asked Josh Shapiro if he had been an Israeli agent, sparking controversy. While not directly related to the governor race, it affected Harris' political standing and market price.
Stephen Cloobeck drops out of California governor race and endorses Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck dips to 0%4%
Stephen Cloobeck exited the race after spending heavily, endorsing Eric Swalwell, consolidating Democratic support and impacting market prices for both candidates.
Billionaire Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor in 2026
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Rick Caruso officially announced he would not run for governor or mayor, removing a prominent potential candidate from the race and clarifying the field for other contenders.
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or LA mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 7%42%
Billionaire Rick Caruso officially declined to run for governor, removing a potential high-profile candidate from the race and causing his market price to drop to zero.
Billionaire developer Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Rick Caruso, a prominent potential candidate, withdrew from the gubernatorial race citing family considerations and quality of life, leading to his market price dropping to zero and consolidating the field for other candidates.
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or LA mayor
Billionaire Rick Caruso officially announced he would not run for governor or mayor, removing a potential major candidate from the race and solidifying the field for other contenders.
Rick Caruso officially declines to run for California governor or LA mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Caruso's formal announcement not to run ended speculation and removed a significant moderate candidate, impacting the race dynamics and market prices for his chances.
Rick Caruso officially bows out of 2026 governor and LA mayor races
Rick Caruso drops to 0%11%
Rick Caruso formally announced he would not run for governor or mayor, confirming market expectations and solidifying his price at zero.
Billionaire developer Rick Caruso decides against running for California governor
Rick Caruso drops to 0%13%
Caruso announced he would not run for governor, causing his market price to fall from 13 % to 0 % (price before = 13, price after = 0).
Rick Caruso officially announces he will not run for governor or mayor in 2026
Rick Caruso drops to 0%6%
Rick Caruso confirmed his decision to stay out of the 2026 gubernatorial and mayoral races, citing family and personal reasons. This removed a significant candidate from the field, impacting the market by reducing competition.
Tom Steyer’s $115 million ad‑buy disclosed, dwarfing rivals
Tom Steyer surges to 35%22%
The massive ad spend raised Steyer’s visibility, lifting his price from the low single digits to the mid‑30s as voters perceived him as the best‑funded candidate.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Mahan announced his candidacy positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, briefly impacting his market price before declining.
Democrats fear vote splitting could allow two Republicans in California governor general election
Concerns grew among Democrats that the crowded field could split the vote, enabling two Republicans to advance to the general election, impacting market perceptions of Democratic candidates' chances.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, which introduced a new contender and influenced market prices for his outcome.
Nicole Shanahan criticizes California government response to wildfires
Nicole Shanahan dips to 0%1%
Nicole Shanahan publicly criticized California officials for inadequate wildfire preparedness despite record rainfall, highlighting government negligence. This event coincides with her low market price and limited campaign presence.
Eric Swalwell announces candidacy on national TV
Steve Hilton plunges to 15%34%
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign on ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live!,” briefly boosting his market price before the later scandal.
Poll shows Tom Steyer leading Democratic field
Tom Steyer jumps to 24%8%
A Public Policy Institute of California poll placed Steyer ahead of Porter and Becerra, prompting a sharp price rise from 16% to 24% as the market reacted to the perceived front‑runner status.
Debate eligibility controversy erupts among candidates
A dispute over which candidates qualified for the June primary debate highlighted the fragmented field and caused short‑term volatility in several candidates’ prices.
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra rises to 6%2%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative, improving his standing among Democratic voters and sparking a steady rise in his market price through January and February.
Governor Newsom proposes shifting K-12 education power to Board of Education
Newsom's proposal to reduce the State Superintendent's duties and increase the governor-appointed Board's power stirred political debate, indirectly affecting perceptions of candidates linked to education policy.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan joins California governor's race
Matt Mahan plunges to 20%26%
Mahan entered the race as a moderate Democrat, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field and criticizing Newsom's policies.
Billionaire Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Rick Caruso, a prominent potential candidate, publicly decided not to run for governor or Los Angeles mayor, removing a major contender from the race and impacting market expectations for his chances.
Chad Bianco seizes half‑million ballots in special election
Chad Bianco rises to 3%2%
Bianco’s controversial ballot‑seizure action drew statewide media attention, reinforcing his law‑and‑order brand and slightly improving his market price.
Katie Porter announces candidacy for governor
Katie Porter surges to 19%19%
Porter’s entry added a high‑profile progressive to the field, lifting her price from 0% to 19% as she captured attention from liberal voters.
Tom Steyer launches $115 million advertising blitz
Tom Steyer surges to 34%22%
Billionaire Tom Steyer began spending over $115 million on TV and digital ads, dramatically raising his visibility and pushing his market price upward during April.
Matt Mahan announces candidacy for governor
Matt Mahan drops to 32%14%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat with a record on homelessness, giving his market price a modest rise as voters considered a new alternative.
Matt Mahan announces gubernatorial bid in San Jose
Matt Mahan drops to 32%14%
San Jose mayor Matt Mahan entered the race, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat focused on homelessness and public safety, which gave his campaign an initial price boost.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from Donald Trump
Steve Hilton rises to 4%4%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price after a period of near‑zero support.
Tom Steyer’s ad spend peaks, market price spikes to 36%
Tom Steyer jumps to 36%14%
Steyer’s continued heavy advertising pushed his market price to a high of 36% in mid‑December, reflecting growing voter awareness of his platform.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches $115 million ad blitz in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%57%
Steyer’s unprecedented spending flood of TV and digital ads caused a sharp rise in his market price, peaking in mid‑April before a later decline as voters questioned the impact of money.
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor, enters governor’s race
Matt Mahan plunges to 19%27%
Mahan’s entry shifted attention to a moderate Democrat, causing his own price to spike briefly before a steady decline as the field remained crowded.
Tom Steyer begins $115 million ad blitz
Tom Steyer jumps to 23%10%
Steyer’s unprecedented spending on TV and digital ads raised his visibility and temporarily lifted his market price, though the surge was modest relative to the amount spent.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat to the field, drawing attention from centrist voters and slightly boosting his market price.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad campaign in governor race
Tom Steyer jumps to 28%10%
Steyer began a heavy spending spree on TV and radio ads, aiming to dominate the race and gain ground among Democratic voters, impacting his market price positively.
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor, joins the governor’s race
Matt Mahan surges to 17%17%
Mahan’s entry gave a moderate Democrat a platform, causing his price to rise sharply from 0% to 17% as he attracted voters dissatisfied with Newsom’s policies.
Stephen Cloobeck drops out of California governor race and endorses Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck exited the governor's race and endorsed fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell, consolidating some Democratic support and reducing the number of candidates in the primary.
Stephen Cloobeck ends bid for California governor, endorses Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 0%5%
Stephen Cloobeck dropped out of the governor's race and endorsed Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, consolidating support behind Swalwell and reshaping the Democratic field.
Stephen Cloobeck exits California’s gubernatorial race and endorses Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck plunges to 2%47%
Stephen Cloobeck dropped out of the governor's race and endorsed fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell, consolidating support behind Swalwell and reshaping the Democratic field.
Stephen Cloobeck drops out of California governor race and endorses Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 0%14%
Stephen Cloobeck, a billionaire candidate who had spent heavily on his campaign, exited the race and endorsed fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell. This withdrawal caused his market probability to fall to zero and shifted support within the Democratic field.
Stephen Cloobeck ends bid for California governor, endorses Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 0%14%
Stephen Cloobeck ended his campaign for governor and endorsed fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell, consolidating support within the Democratic field. This withdrawal reshaped the race dynamics, although Swalwell himself later exited amid allegations.
Stephen Cloobeck ends bid for California governor, endorses Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck dips to 0%4%
Stephen Cloobeck dropped out of the governor's race and endorsed Eric Swalwell, leading to a sharp decline in his market price and shifting support within the Democratic field.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor
Eric Swalwell entered the race as a prominent Democrat, initially impacting the market by adding competition and splitting Democratic support.
Eric Swalwell suspends gubernatorial campaign following sexual assault allegations
Swalwell's sudden exit from the race after sexual assault allegations caused a major reordering of the Democratic field.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor amid controversy
Rep. Eric Swalwell announced his gubernatorial bid on Jimmy Kimmel Live!, entering a crowded Democratic field despite facing a federal criminal referral for alleged mortgage and tax fraud. His entry added complexity to the race and affected market prices for other candidates.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor on Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Eric Swalwell announced his gubernatorial bid amid controversy over a federal criminal referral for alleged mortgage fraud. His entry added a prominent Democrat to the race, impacting market prices for several candidates.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Eric Swalwell entered the race as a prominent Democratic candidate, initially impacting the market by splitting Democratic support and affecting other candidates' prices.
Eric Swalwell announces gubernatorial bid, joining crowded Democratic field
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell’s entry added a high‑profile name to the race, prompting a modest rise in his own odds and a slight dip for other Democrats as voters reassessed the field.
Sexual assault allegations surface against Eric Swalwell
Xavier Becerra drops to 0%5%
Allegations reported by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN caused Swalwell to suspend his campaign, leading to a sharp drop in support for his allies and a redistribution of votes among remaining candidates.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor on Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Eric Swalwell's entry added a new dynamic to the crowded Democratic field, initially impacting market prices for several candidates including Becerra and Steyer.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California Governor
Rep. Eric Swalwell officially entered the 2026 California governor's race, positioning himself as a leading Democratic contender with strong name recognition and a focus on fighting President Trump. This announcement marked the start of a competitive Democratic primary.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor on Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Eric Swalwell entered the crowded Democratic field, focusing on affordability and positioning himself as a fighter against high costs. His entry added competition, impacting the market shares of other Democratic candidates including Becerra and Steyer.
Tom Steyer announces 2026 California governor bid
Billionaire Tom Steyer entered the California governor race, focusing on affordability and climate issues. His self-funded campaign became the most expensive in the field, significantly influencing the Democratic primary dynamics and market expectations.
Billionaire Tom Steyer announces run for California governor
Tom Steyer, a billionaire climate activist and former presidential candidate, entered the governor's race with a focus on affordability and climate, increasing his profile and market interest.
Tom Steyer announces run for California governor
Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer announced his candidacy for California governor, focusing on affordability and climate issues. His entry added significant financial resources to the race, making it the most expensive in California history and influencing the dynamics among Democratic candidates.
Billionaire Tom Steyer enters California governor race
Tom Steyer, a billionaire and climate activist, announced his candidacy for governor, bringing significant self-funding and progressive policy focus to the race. His entry added a major player to the Democratic field and influenced campaign dynamics.
Tom Steyer officially announces candidacy for California governor
Tom Steyer jumps to 18%14%
Tom Steyer, a billionaire environmental activist and former presidential candidate, launched his campaign focusing on affordability, housing, and making corporations pay their fair share. His entry energized the Democratic field and caused a notable increase in his market support from 4% to 18%.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches bid for California governor
Tom Steyer, billionaire climate activist and businessman, officially entered the race with a focus on affordability and making corporations pay their fair share. His entry added a significant contender to the crowded Democratic field.
Tom Steyer officially enters 2026 California governor race
Tom Steyer plunges to 18%31%
Billionaire and climate activist Tom Steyer announced his candidacy for governor, joining the crowded Democratic field. His entry brought significant financial resources and attention to the race, influencing market dynamics and candidate positioning.
Tom Steyer announces candidacy for California governor
Billionaire Tom Steyer entered the crowded 2026 California governor race, focusing his campaign on affordability and climate change. His self-funded campaign quickly became the most expensive in the field, raising his market probability significantly.
Tom Steyer enters 2026 California governor race
Tom Steyer plunges to 18%31%
Billionaire and climate activist Tom Steyer announced his candidacy for California governor, focusing on affordability, climate change, and corporate accountability. His self-funded campaign became the most expensive in the race, significantly raising his profile among Democratic contenders.
Billionaire Tom Steyer announces candidacy for California governor
Tom Steyer, a wealthy Democratic donor and climate activist, entered the race, significantly increasing competition and campaign spending, which affected market dynamics.
Tom Steyer launches campaign for California governor
Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer officially entered the race, focusing on affordability and promising to build affordable housing. His campaign launch increased his market presence from near zero to 49%.
Tom Steyer enters California governor race focusing on affordability
Tom Steyer plunges to 18%31%
Billionaire and climate activist Tom Steyer announced his candidacy, focusing on affordability, housing, and utility reform, bringing significant personal funding to the crowded Democratic field.
Tom Steyer launches run for California governor pledging to tackle affordability crisis
Tom Steyer entered the race focusing on affordability, initially gaining significant market support as a prominent Democratic candidate.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad campaign in governor race
Tom Steyer began a large spending spree on TV and radio ads to boost his campaign for governor, outspending rivals by a wide margin. This spending increased his visibility and polling but did not establish him as a clear frontrunner, influencing market prices.
Tom Steyer begins heavy ad spending in California governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer started a massive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his candidacy, which increased his market price significantly.
Tom Steyer's campaign spending spree intensifies in California governor race
Tom Steyer jumps to 28%10%
Billionaire Tom Steyer significantly increased his campaign spending, saturating media markets with ads to boost his profile and chances in the crowded Democratic field, impacting his market price positively.
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension of the campaign and eventual resignation from Congress. This event caused a significant reshuffling in the race, with his supporters and donors reconsidering their options, impacting the market prices for other candidates.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Steyer's unprecedented spending on TV and radio ads significantly raised his profile and market price, positioning him as a leading Democratic contender despite no prior elected office.
Tom Steyer surges in early polls for California governor race
Tom Steyer's campaign gained early momentum with strong polling numbers reaching 49%, reflecting initial voter interest and fundraising efforts that positioned him as a leading candidate.
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 19%30%
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton received Trump's endorsement, boosting his profile among Republican voters but with limited impact on overall market probability given California's Democratic lean.
Tom Steyer emerges as a major spender in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%21%
Billionaire Tom Steyer began a significant advertising spending spree, saturating media markets to boost his profile. This spending increased his market price and positioned him as a leading Democratic contender.
Stephen Cloobeck drops out of California governor race, endorses Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck dips to 0%1%
Stephen Cloobeck, a billionaire candidate who had spent heavily on his campaign, withdrew from the race and endorsed Eric Swalwell, reducing the number of Democratic contenders and consolidating support among some voters.
Chad Bianco files paperwork to run for governor
Chad Bianco rises to 1%1%
The Riverside County sheriff’s entry added a Republican option, pulling a small share of votes from the Democratic pool and nudging his price upward from 0% to 1% as the field widened.
Butch Ware announces 2026 California governor candidacy
Butch Ware plunges to 1%49%
Butch Ware, a Green Party candidate and academic, announced his run for California governor, aiming to break the two-party duopoly with a progressive platform. His campaign attracted attention but he failed to qualify for the primary ballot, continuing as a write-in candidate.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton jumps to 14%8%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a surge of national attention, lifting his price from single digits to a brief peak of 14% before settling back near 9% as the novelty faded.
Tom Steyer launches $115 million advertising blitz
Tom Steyer jumps to 22%9%
Billionaire Tom Steyer began a massive TV and digital ad campaign, dramatically increasing his name recognition and causing his market price to climb sharply in November.
Senator Alex Padilla announces he will not run for California governor in 2026
Alex Padilla drops to 0%6%
Padilla officially announced he would not run for governor, choosing to remain in the U.S. Senate to continue fighting for constitutional and civil rights. This decision caused a sharp drop in his market probability and reshaped the race by removing a major Democratic contender.
Senator Alex Padilla says he won’t run for California governor
Alex Padilla plunges to 31%19%
Senator Alex Padilla officially announced he would not run for governor, choosing to remain in the U.S. Senate to continue fighting the Trump administration's agenda, narrowing the Democratic field.
Senator Alex Padilla rules out run for California governor
Alex Padilla plunges to 0%50%
Senator Alex Padilla announced he would not run for governor, narrowing the Democratic field and affecting market expectations for his candidacy.
Senator Alex Padilla announces he will not run for California governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 6%1%
Senator Alex Padilla publicly announced he would not run for governor, ending speculation and narrowing the Democratic field. This decision boosted other Democratic candidates, particularly Xavier Becerra and Katie Porter.
Alex Padilla announces he will not run for California governor
Alex Padilla plunges to 0%28%
Senator Alex Padilla announced he would not run for governor in 2026, choosing to remain in the U.S. Senate to continue fighting for constitutional and civil rights. This decision removed a major potential candidate from the race, impacting the Democratic field and market prices.
Sen. Alex Padilla says he will not run for California governor
Alex Padilla plunges to 0%23%
Senator Padilla announced he would not run for governor, eliminating him from contention and causing his market price to fall to zero.
Tom Steyer launches billionaire‑funded advertising blitz
Tom Steyer jumps to 24%6%
Steyer disclosed spending over $115 million on TV and digital ads, causing his price to jump from the low‑teens to double‑digits as voters perceived a serious contender.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton dips to 10%3%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a national boost, temporarily raising his market price before the candidate’s later decline as the primary field narrowed.
Steve Hilton announces candidacy for California governor with Trump endorsement
Steve Hilton plunges to 10%39%
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton entered the race with an endorsement from President Donald Trump, boosting his profile among Republican voters and impacting his market price.
Rep. Randy Feenstra announces run for governor in Iowa, highlighting fundraising trends
Tom Steyer dips to 45%4%
Feenstra's announcement underscored a wave of high‑profile fundraising in gubernatorial contests, prompting analysts to compare spending dynamics in California's crowded field.
Xavier Becerra announces run for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and California Attorney General, officially announced his candidacy for governor, boosting his visibility and initial market interest.
Stephen Cloobeck enters California governor race with pro-business message
Businessman Stephen Cloobeck announced his candidacy, bringing significant funding and a pro-business platform, briefly impacting the Democratic field before his withdrawal.
Stephen Cloobeck enters 2026 California governor's race
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 1%12%
Stephen Cloobeck announced his candidacy for California governor, initially raising his market price, but later dropped out and endorsed Eric Swalwell, causing his price to fall to zero.
Criticism mounts over Katie Porter’s temperament in California governor’s race
Katie Porter plunges to 21%28%
Viral videos of Katie Porter’s outbursts raised questions about her temperament, impacting her campaign momentum and public perception in the Democratic primary race.
Xavier Becerra announces candidacy for California governor
Xavier Becerra jumps to 5%5%
Becerra entered the race, giving the former health secretary a baseline of support that lifted his price from near‑zero to 5% as voters registered his name among many Democrats.
Matt Mahan announces candidacy for California governor
Matt Mahan rises to 48%2%
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan entered the race, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and drawing attention from centrist voters, which contributed to a slight rise in his market price.
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches campaign for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell announced his candidacy on a national talk show, positioning himself as a fighter against rising costs, which gave his name an early market presence.
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches gubernatorial bid on Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell’s high‑visibility announcement added a prominent Democrat to the race, boosting early interest in the field and briefly lifting his own odds while pulling attention from other candidates.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton rises to 8%2%
President Trump publicly endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton for governor, boosting his visibility among Republican voters and prompting a modest price increase for his market share.
Market reacts to crowded field and uncertainty
Xavier Becerra plunges to 7%43%
The market experienced a sharp correction across multiple candidates as the reality of a crowded primary field set in.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces his bid for California governor
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for governor, immediately impacting the market as a major Democratic contender.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces run for California governor
Matt Mahan entered the crowded governor's race as a moderate Democrat and Newsom critic, emphasizing his record on homelessness and crime. His candidacy introduced a new contender with tech ties, impacting market perceptions of his chances.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Swalwell launched his campaign for governor, adding a prominent figure to the crowded field and initially increasing the market's uncertainty about the Democratic vote split.
Billionaire Tom Steyer begins massive ad spending in governor race
Steyer used his personal fortune to saturate media with ads, becoming the top spender and a leading Democratic candidate, impacting his polling and market price.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Swalwell launched his campaign on a late-night show, immediately becoming a top-tier contender in the crowded Democratic field.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for California governor, positioning himself as a fighter against Trump-era policies. His entry initially boosted his chances and affected the dynamics among Democratic candidates.
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