Recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025 permanently extended the existing long-term capital gains rate structure from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act without reducing headline rates of 0%, 15%, or 20% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax). In August 2026, Trump administration officials have discussed potential changes such as inflation indexing of gains or expanded exemptions for primary home sales, framed partly as midterm messaging. However, these remain preliminary ideas without introduced legislation or clear congressional timelines, amid competing priorities like spending measures and the November 2026 elections. Traders assign an 83.5% probability to no cut before 2027, reflecting the barriers to enacting new rate reductions in the current session.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
15% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
はい
15% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025 permanently extended the existing long-term capital gains rate structure from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act without reducing headline rates of 0%, 15%, or 20% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax). In August 2026, Trump administration officials have discussed potential changes such as inflation indexing of gains or expanded exemptions for primary home sales, framed partly as midterm messaging. However, these remain preliminary ideas without introduced legislation or clear congressional timelines, amid competing priorities like spending measures and the November 2026 elections. Traders assign an 83.5% probability to no cut before 2027, reflecting the barriers to enacting new rate reductions in the current session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$2,141終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025 permanently extended the existing long-term capital gains rate structure from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act without reducing headline rates of 0%, 15%, or 20% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax). In August 2026, Trump administration officials have discussed potential changes such as inflation indexing of gains or expanded exemptions for primary home sales, framed partly as midterm messaging. However, these remain preliminary ideas without introduced legislation or clear congressional timelines, amid competing priorities like spending measures and the November 2026 elections. Traders assign an 83.5% probability to no cut before 2027, reflecting the barriers to enacting new rate reductions in the current session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$2,141終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025 permanently extended the existing long-term capital gains rate structure from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act without reducing headline rates of 0%, 15%, or 20% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax). In August 2026, Trump administration officials have discussed potential changes such as inflation indexing of gains or expanded exemptions for primary home sales, framed partly as midterm messaging. However, these remain preliminary ideas without introduced legislation or clear congressional timelines, amid competing priorities like spending measures and the November 2026 elections. Traders assign an 83.5% probability to no cut before 2027, reflecting the barriers to enacting new rate reductions in the current session.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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