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icon for アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか?

アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか?

icon for アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか?

アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか?

はい

22% 確率
Polymarket
新規

はい

22% 確率
Polymarket
新規
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 70% reflects the limited pipeline of ultra-high-value consignments expected in the final four months of 2026.** Major auction houses have already delivered record-breaking results earlier in the cycle, including Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* (1948) at $181.2 million in May and Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025. These sales, drawn from exceptional single-owner collections, set new benchmarks for modern and postwar works but have left fewer comparable masterpieces scheduled for the fall season. Recent New York and London evening sales through August have produced strong but lower results, with top lots in the $50–100 million range amid a recovering yet selective market. While November marquee auctions and any late private transactions could still surprise, the absence of confirmed nine-figure offerings at that threshold has shaped trader consensus around the remaining timeline. Historical patterns show such outliers cluster around marquee collections rather than appearing uniformly across the calendar.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$1,395
終了日
2027/01/01
マーケット開始日
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 70% reflects the limited pipeline of ultra-high-value consignments expected in the final four months of 2026.** Major auction houses have already delivered record-breaking results earlier in the cycle, including Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* (1948) at $181.2 million in May and Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025. These sales, drawn from exceptional single-owner collections, set new benchmarks for modern and postwar works but have left fewer comparable masterpieces scheduled for the fall season. Recent New York and London evening sales through August have produced strong but lower results, with top lots in the $50–100 million range amid a recovering yet selective market. While November marquee auctions and any late private transactions could still surprise, the absence of confirmed nine-figure offerings at that threshold has shaped trader consensus around the remaining timeline. Historical patterns show such outliers cluster around marquee collections rather than appearing uniformly across the calendar.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$1,395
終了日
2027/01/01
マーケット開始日
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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よくある質問

「アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日までにアート作品が1億5千万ドルで売れるでしょうか?」で30%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、30¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に30%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Jun 3, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日までにアート作品が1億5千万ドルで売れるでしょうか?」で30%であり、市場がこの結果に30%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。