Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap shows the AfD leading with 35–36 percent ahead of the incumbent SPD at 28–29 percent, followed by Die Linke at 11–12 percent and the CDU near 10 percent, with the Greens near the 5 percent threshold and smaller parties trailing. The September 20, 2026, Landtag election features an SPD–Linke coalition government since 2021, yet the AfD’s sustained plurality has not translated into coalition prospects due to other parties’ consistent refusal to partner with it. This dynamic favors continuation of left-leaning or minority arrangements, as seat projections rarely grant the AfD a workable majority even if it finishes first. Modest recent SPD gains and uncertainty over minor-party entry thresholds remain the main variables that could alter coalition math before election day.