President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of legal experts to draft a new constitution, followed by June 2026 statements from the AKP and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism for adoption in 2026-2027, have kept the issue on the agenda. However, the process has not advanced to the parliamentary votes or official referendum announcement required under the current rules, which demand broad legislative support exceeding the ruling coalition’s reliable majority. Turkey's ruling AKP coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360-vote threshold required to initiate a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct parliamentary amendment. Preparatory drafting through a presidential commission appointed in 2025 has advanced without securing cross-party backing or legislative progress sufficient for an official announcement by December 31, 2026. Party statements project possible movement in 2027 or later, with emphasis instead on the 2028 election cycle, leaving trader consensus at an 86.5% implied probability against a 2026 referendum announcement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日14% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
14% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of legal experts to draft a new constitution, followed by June 2026 statements from the AKP and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism for adoption in 2026-2027, have kept the issue on the agenda. However, the process has not advanced to the parliamentary votes or official referendum announcement required under the current rules, which demand broad legislative support exceeding the ruling coalition’s reliable majority. Turkey's ruling AKP coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360-vote threshold required to initiate a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct parliamentary amendment. Preparatory drafting through a presidential commission appointed in 2025 has advanced without securing cross-party backing or legislative progress sufficient for an official announcement by December 31, 2026. Party statements project possible movement in 2027 or later, with emphasis instead on the 2028 election cycle, leaving trader consensus at an 86.5% implied probability against a 2026 referendum announcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
音量
$6,734終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of legal experts to draft a new constitution, followed by June 2026 statements from the AKP and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism for adoption in 2026-2027, have kept the issue on the agenda. However, the process has not advanced to the parliamentary votes or official referendum announcement required under the current rules, which demand broad legislative support exceeding the ruling coalition’s reliable majority. Turkey's ruling AKP coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360-vote threshold required to initiate a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct parliamentary amendment. Preparatory drafting through a presidential commission appointed in 2025 has advanced without securing cross-party backing or legislative progress sufficient for an official announcement by December 31, 2026. Party statements project possible movement in 2027 or later, with emphasis instead on the 2028 election cycle, leaving trader consensus at an 86.5% implied probability against a 2026 referendum announcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,734終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of legal experts to draft a new constitution, followed by June 2026 statements from the AKP and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism for adoption in 2026-2027, have kept the issue on the agenda. However, the process has not advanced to the parliamentary votes or official referendum announcement required under the current rules, which demand broad legislative support exceeding the ruling coalition’s reliable majority. Turkey's ruling AKP coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360-vote threshold required to initiate a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct parliamentary amendment. Preparatory drafting through a presidential commission appointed in 2025 has advanced without securing cross-party backing or legislative progress sufficient for an official announcement by December 31, 2026. Party statements project possible movement in 2027 or later, with emphasis instead on the 2028 election cycle, leaving trader consensus at an 86.5% implied probability against a 2026 referendum announcement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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