Recent South African inflation prints have shown volatility driven primarily by transport costs, with the June 2026 annual rate reaching 5.0% before easing to 4.3% in July amid softer fuel and municipal tariff pressures. The South African Reserve Bank’s policy rate stands at 7%, with its Quarterly Projection Model indicating headline inflation likely to average near 4.4% for the full year before moderating toward the 3% target. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation has continued to decline, providing an offset to energy-driven upside risks, while core measures remain anchored around 4.2%. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly in the 4.4–5.0% range because traders weigh ongoing global oil price sensitivity and administered price adjustments against the central bank’s commitment to prevent second-round effects. The August CPI release, due shortly, and the September Monetary Policy Committee meeting represent near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution if fuel costs reaccelerate or disinflation broadens faster than expected.