Recent strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, showing 162,000 jobs added in August against expectations of 56,000, has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.55% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting trader concerns over persistent inflation and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising term premium from heavy Treasury supply, and competition for capital from AI-related investment continue to support higher yields independent of the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which could clarify whether policy remains on hold or shifts toward tighter conditions through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/12/30
5.25%
39%
5.10%
50%
5.00%
50%
4.95%
50%
4.90％
50%
4.85%
51%
4.80%
51%
4.75%
52%
4.70％
64%
$0.00 Vol.
5.25%
$0 Vol.
39%
5.10%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.00%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.95%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.90％
$0 Vol.
50%
4.85%
$0 Vol.
51%
4.80%
$0 Vol.
51%
4.75%
$0 Vol.
52%
4.70％
$0 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, showing 162,000 jobs added in August against expectations of 56,000, has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.55% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting trader concerns over persistent inflation and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising term premium from heavy Treasury supply, and competition for capital from AI-related investment continue to support higher yields independent of the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which could clarify whether policy remains on hold or shifts toward tighter conditions through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, showing 162,000 jobs added in August against expectations of 56,000, has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.55% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting trader concerns over persistent inflation and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising term premium from heavy Treasury supply, and competition for capital from AI-related investment continue to support higher yields independent of the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which could clarify whether policy remains on hold or shifts toward tighter conditions through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, showing 162,000 jobs added in August against expectations of 56,000, has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.55% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting trader concerns over persistent inflation and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising term premium from heavy Treasury supply, and competition for capital from AI-related investment continue to support higher yields independent of the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which could clarify whether policy remains on hold or shifts toward tighter conditions through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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