With only three Republican House incumbents defeated in primaries so far this cycle—Dan Crenshaw, Thomas Massie, and Andy Ogles—amid limited additional contested races and few remaining high-profile challenges, trader consensus has coalesced around a final total of 4-6. Intra-party dynamics, including Trump-backed efforts against critics and targeted spending in select districts, have produced these outcomes without triggering widespread turnover. Historical patterns show Republican incumbents typically win renomination at rates above 95 percent outside redistricting years, supporting the market's assessment. Additional defeats could occur in states with late primaries or if unexpected spending surges materialize, but the absence of broader insurgencies keeps the 4-6 range dominant.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4～6 92.8%
7〜9 5.1%
10〜12 3.4%
>15 2.1%
$76,080 Vol.
$76,080 Vol.
3以下
<1%
4～6
93%
7〜9
5%
10〜12
3%
13〜15
2%
>15
2%
4～6 92.8%
7〜9 5.1%
10〜12 3.4%
>15 2.1%
$76,080 Vol.
$76,080 Vol.
3以下
$38,821 Vol.
<1%
4～6
$19,264 Vol.
93%
7〜9
$6,315 Vol.
5%
10〜12
$5,051 Vol.
3%
13〜15
$3,933 Vol.
2%
>15
$2,696 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.With only three Republican House incumbents defeated in primaries so far this cycle—Dan Crenshaw, Thomas Massie, and Andy Ogles—amid limited additional contested races and few remaining high-profile challenges, trader consensus has coalesced around a final total of 4-6. Intra-party dynamics, including Trump-backed efforts against critics and targeted spending in select districts, have produced these outcomes without triggering widespread turnover. Historical patterns show Republican incumbents typically win renomination at rates above 95 percent outside redistricting years, supporting the market's assessment. Additional defeats could occur in states with late primaries or if unexpected spending surges materialize, but the absence of broader insurgencies keeps the 4-6 range dominant.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
音量
$76,080マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.With only three Republican House incumbents defeated in primaries so far this cycle—Dan Crenshaw, Thomas Massie, and Andy Ogles—amid limited additional contested races and few remaining high-profile challenges, trader consensus has coalesced around a final total of 4-6. Intra-party dynamics, including Trump-backed efforts against critics and targeted spending in select districts, have produced these outcomes without triggering widespread turnover. Historical patterns show Republican incumbents typically win renomination at rates above 95 percent outside redistricting years, supporting the market's assessment. Additional defeats could occur in states with late primaries or if unexpected spending surges materialize, but the absence of broader insurgencies keeps the 4-6 range dominant.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
音量
$76,080マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
With only three Republican House incumbents defeated in primaries so far this cycle—Dan Crenshaw, Thomas Massie, and Andy Ogles—amid limited additional contested races and few remaining high-profile challenges, trader consensus has coalesced around a final total of 4-6. Intra-party dynamics, including Trump-backed efforts against critics and targeted spending in select districts, have produced these outcomes without triggering widespread turnover. Historical patterns show Republican incumbents typically win renomination at rates above 95 percent outside redistricting years, supporting the market's assessment. Additional defeats could occur in states with late primaries or if unexpected spending surges materialize, but the absence of broader insurgencies keeps the 4-6 range dominant.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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