Traders assign the highest probabilities to 33°C and 34°C maxima in Shenzhen on August 16 because numerical weather models and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration show afternoon highs clustering in the low-to-mid 30s under typical subtropical monsoon conditions, with recent runs emphasizing modest daytime heating amid scattered thunderstorms. Cloud cover, convective timing, and sea-breeze effects create the narrow spread between these outcomes, as thicker afternoon convection or earlier rainfall can suppress peaks by 1–2°C while clearer intervals allow stronger insolation. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, yet current humidity above 70% and weak steering winds amplify sensitivity to local boundary-layer processes. Updated model cycles and regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月16日の深センの最高気温は?
33°C 33%
34°C 25%
32°C 22%
31°C 14%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
14%
32°C
22%
33°C
33%
34°C
25%
35°C
13%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 33%
34°C 25%
32°C 22%
31°C 14%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
14%
32°C
22%
33°C
33%
34°C
25%
35°C
13%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders assign the highest probabilities to 33°C and 34°C maxima in Shenzhen on August 16 because numerical weather models and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration show afternoon highs clustering in the low-to-mid 30s under typical subtropical monsoon conditions, with recent runs emphasizing modest daytime heating amid scattered thunderstorms. Cloud cover, convective timing, and sea-breeze effects create the narrow spread between these outcomes, as thicker afternoon convection or earlier rainfall can suppress peaks by 1–2°C while clearer intervals allow stronger insolation. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, yet current humidity above 70% and weak steering winds amplify sensitivity to local boundary-layer processes. Updated model cycles and regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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