Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects substantial forecast uncertainty for Taipei's peak temperature on August 16, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 33°C and 34°C near 50%. Short-range ensemble models from agencies such as Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global systems show daytime highs sensitive to subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention amid typical August monsoon flow. Historical climatology places late-summer maxima near 33°C, yet recent model runs indicate potential for slight warming if subsidence strengthens or for moderation if convective activity increases, keeping outcomes in the 32–35°C range competitive while rendering extremes below 30°C or above 36°C low-probability under current guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月16日の台北の最高気温は?
35°C 52%
34°C 35%
36°C 32%
33°C 25%
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
6%
33°C
25%
34°C
35%
35°C
37%
36°C
32%
37°C
4%
38°C
3%
39°C or higher
3%
35°C 52%
34°C 35%
36°C 32%
33°C 25%
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
6%
33°C
25%
34°C
35%
35°C
37%
36°C
32%
37°C
4%
38°C
3%
39°C or higher
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects substantial forecast uncertainty for Taipei's peak temperature on August 16, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 33°C and 34°C near 50%. Short-range ensemble models from agencies such as Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global systems show daytime highs sensitive to subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention amid typical August monsoon flow. Historical climatology places late-summer maxima near 33°C, yet recent model runs indicate potential for slight warming if subsidence strengthens or for moderation if convective activity increases, keeping outcomes in the 32–35°C range competitive while rendering extremes below 30°C or above 36°C low-probability under current guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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