**Farsi Island remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with trader probabilities for any change by late August 2026 staying very low (under 10-11% for the nearest dates).** Farsi, a small, barren IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf used historically for maritime interdiction, has not been targeted in recent US strikes that hit facilities on Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Kharg, Qeshm, and Larak islands. Those operations focused on coastal defenses, missile sites, and naval infrastructure tied to Strait of Hormuz control and oil exports. Farsi’s limited size, lower profile, and lack of major reported military assets or civilian infrastructure have kept it outside the primary campaign scope so far. Market pricing reflects the absence of confirmed plans, landings, or seizures meeting resolution criteria (primary governmental or military control shifting to another state or force). Temporary strikes, raids, or offshore presence would not qualify. Broader escalation risks, diplomatic shifts, or expanded targeting of Hormuz chokepoint assets could still alter the situation before resolution windows close, though no such developments have materialized as of late August.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$174,582 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
<1%
$174,582 Vol.
8月31日
$165,689 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Farsi Island remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with trader probabilities for any change by late August 2026 staying very low (under 10-11% for the nearest dates).**
Farsi, a small, barren IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf used historically for maritime interdiction, has not been targeted in recent US strikes that hit facilities on Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Kharg, Qeshm, and Larak islands. Those operations focused on coastal defenses, missile sites, and naval infrastructure tied to Strait of Hormuz control and oil exports. Farsi’s limited size, lower profile, and lack of major reported military assets or civilian infrastructure have kept it outside the primary campaign scope so far.
Market pricing reflects the absence of confirmed plans, landings, or seizures meeting resolution criteria (primary governmental or military control shifting to another state or force). Temporary strikes, raids, or offshore presence would not qualify. Broader escalation risks, diplomatic shifts, or expanded targeting of Hormuz chokepoint assets could still alter the situation before resolution windows close, though no such developments have materialized as of late August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
音量
$174,582終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Farsi Island remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with trader probabilities for any change by late August 2026 staying very low (under 10-11% for the nearest dates).**
Farsi, a small, barren IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf used historically for maritime interdiction, has not been targeted in recent US strikes that hit facilities on Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Kharg, Qeshm, and Larak islands. Those operations focused on coastal defenses, missile sites, and naval infrastructure tied to Strait of Hormuz control and oil exports. Farsi’s limited size, lower profile, and lack of major reported military assets or civilian infrastructure have kept it outside the primary campaign scope so far.
Market pricing reflects the absence of confirmed plans, landings, or seizures meeting resolution criteria (primary governmental or military control shifting to another state or force). Temporary strikes, raids, or offshore presence would not qualify. Broader escalation risks, diplomatic shifts, or expanded targeting of Hormuz chokepoint assets could still alter the situation before resolution windows close, though no such developments have materialized as of late August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$174,582終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Farsi Island remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with trader probabilities for any change by late August 2026 staying very low (under 10-11% for the nearest dates).** Farsi, a small, barren IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf used historically for maritime interdiction, has not been targeted in recent US strikes that hit facilities on Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Kharg, Qeshm, and Larak islands. Those operations focused on coastal defenses, missile sites, and naval infrastructure tied to Strait of Hormuz control and oil exports. Farsi’s limited size, lower profile, and lack of major reported military assets or civilian infrastructure have kept it outside the primary campaign scope so far. Market pricing reflects the absence of confirmed plans, landings, or seizures meeting resolution criteria (primary governmental or military control shifting to another state or force). Temporary strikes, raids, or offshore presence would not qualify. Broader escalation risks, diplomatic shifts, or expanded targeting of Hormuz chokepoint assets could still alter the situation before resolution windows close, though no such developments have materialized as of late August.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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