The EU's institutional architecture, including treaty-based decision-making and deep economic integration through the single market and shared policies, underpins trader expectations that formal dissolution will not occur before 2027. Recent developments reinforce this view, with the European Commission advancing a 2027 budget focused on defense, Ukraine support, agriculture, and energy transition, alongside active enlargement negotiations that position candidate states for potential accession around 2028-2030. These steps signal continuity and expansion rather than fragmentation. While extreme scenarios such as coordinated member-state exits amid a severe crisis or major geopolitical shock could theoretically accelerate change, the procedural requirements for treaty revisions and historical resilience make such outcomes highly improbable within the short timeframe.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
$178,203 Vol.
$178,203 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$178,203 Vol.
$178,203 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's institutional architecture, including treaty-based decision-making and deep economic integration through the single market and shared policies, underpins trader expectations that formal dissolution will not occur before 2027. Recent developments reinforce this view, with the European Commission advancing a 2027 budget focused on defense, Ukraine support, agriculture, and energy transition, alongside active enlargement negotiations that position candidate states for potential accession around 2028-2030. These steps signal continuity and expansion rather than fragmentation. While extreme scenarios such as coordinated member-state exits amid a severe crisis or major geopolitical shock could theoretically accelerate change, the procedural requirements for treaty revisions and historical resilience make such outcomes highly improbable within the short timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$178,203終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's institutional architecture, including treaty-based decision-making and deep economic integration through the single market and shared policies, underpins trader expectations that formal dissolution will not occur before 2027. Recent developments reinforce this view, with the European Commission advancing a 2027 budget focused on defense, Ukraine support, agriculture, and energy transition, alongside active enlargement negotiations that position candidate states for potential accession around 2028-2030. These steps signal continuity and expansion rather than fragmentation. While extreme scenarios such as coordinated member-state exits amid a severe crisis or major geopolitical shock could theoretically accelerate change, the procedural requirements for treaty revisions and historical resilience make such outcomes highly improbable within the short timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$178,203終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The EU's institutional architecture, including treaty-based decision-making and deep economic integration through the single market and shared policies, underpins trader expectations that formal dissolution will not occur before 2027. Recent developments reinforce this view, with the European Commission advancing a 2027 budget focused on defense, Ukraine support, agriculture, and energy transition, alongside active enlargement negotiations that position candidate states for potential accession around 2028-2030. These steps signal continuity and expansion rather than fragmentation. While extreme scenarios such as coordinated member-state exits amid a severe crisis or major geopolitical shock could theoretically accelerate change, the procedural requirements for treaty revisions and historical resilience make such outcomes highly improbable within the short timeframe.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問