Traders assign a 91.5% probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 "Pacing the Frontier" statement by September 30 because he has repeatedly declined formal endorsement despite months of opportunity and his recent public agreement with the idea. The original statement, signed by over 1,300 employees at OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to coordinate slower frontier AI progress amid risks from automated research. Musk endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay with only the brief post “Dario is right” and has not added his name or xAI’s commitment to embedded evaluators, common standards, or governance mechanisms. With just two weeks remaining, no new announcements or listing on pacingthefrontier.com have appeared. A last-minute signature remains possible if Musk seeks alignment with peers or faces unexpected pressure, but current trader consensus views formal commitment as unlikely given his pattern of informal support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
9% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
はい
9% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 "Pacing the Frontier" statement by September 30 because he has repeatedly declined formal endorsement despite months of opportunity and his recent public agreement with the idea. The original statement, signed by over 1,300 employees at OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to coordinate slower frontier AI progress amid risks from automated research. Musk endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay with only the brief post “Dario is right” and has not added his name or xAI’s commitment to embedded evaluators, common standards, or governance mechanisms. With just two weeks remaining, no new announcements or listing on pacingthefrontier.com have appeared. A last-minute signature remains possible if Musk seeks alignment with peers or faces unexpected pressure, but current trader consensus views formal commitment as unlikely given his pattern of informal support.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
音量
$4,775終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 "Pacing the Frontier" statement by September 30 because he has repeatedly declined formal endorsement despite months of opportunity and his recent public agreement with the idea. The original statement, signed by over 1,300 employees at OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to coordinate slower frontier AI progress amid risks from automated research. Musk endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay with only the brief post “Dario is right” and has not added his name or xAI’s commitment to embedded evaluators, common standards, or governance mechanisms. With just two weeks remaining, no new announcements or listing on pacingthefrontier.com have appeared. A last-minute signature remains possible if Musk seeks alignment with peers or faces unexpected pressure, but current trader consensus views formal commitment as unlikely given his pattern of informal support.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$4,775終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 91.5% probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 "Pacing the Frontier" statement by September 30 because he has repeatedly declined formal endorsement despite months of opportunity and his recent public agreement with the idea. The original statement, signed by over 1,300 employees at OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to coordinate slower frontier AI progress amid risks from automated research. Musk endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay with only the brief post “Dario is right” and has not added his name or xAI’s commitment to embedded evaluators, common standards, or governance mechanisms. With just two weeks remaining, no new announcements or listing on pacingthefrontier.com have appeared. A last-minute signature remains possible if Musk seeks alignment with peers or faces unexpected pressure, but current trader consensus views formal commitment as unlikely given his pattern of informal support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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