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icon for イーロン・マスクが2026年10月にツイートしましたか?

イーロン・マスクが2026年10月にツイートしましたか?

icon for イーロン・マスクが2026年10月にツイートしましたか?

イーロン・マスクが2026年10月にツイートしましたか?

20-39 60%

<20 50%

700-719 31%

720-739 31%

Polymarket
新規

20-39 60%

<20 50%

700-719 31%

720-739 31%

Polymarket
新規

<20

$5 Vol.

50%

20-39

$5 Vol.

60%

40-59

$1 Vol.

30%

60-79

$0 Vol.

31%

80-99

$0 Vol.

31%

100-119

$0 Vol.

31%

120-139

$0 Vol.

31%

140-159

$0 Vol.

31%

160-179

$0 Vol.

31%

180-199

$0 Vol.

31%

200-219

$0 Vol.

30%

220-239

$0 Vol.

31%

240-259

$0 Vol.

31%

260-279

$0 Vol.

31%

280-299

$0 Vol.

31%

300-319

$0 Vol.

30%

320-339

$0 Vol.

30%

340-359

$0 Vol.

31%

360-379

$0 Vol.

31%

380-399

$0 Vol.

31%

400-419

$0 Vol.

31%

420-439

$0 Vol.

31%

440-459

$0 Vol.

30%

460-479

$0 Vol.

30%

480-499

$0 Vol.

31%

500-519

$0 Vol.

31%

520-539

$0 Vol.

31%

540-559

$0 Vol.

31%

560-579

$0 Vol.

31%

580-599

$0 Vol.

31%

600-619

$0 Vol.

31%

620-639

$0 Vol.

30%

640-659

$0 Vol.

31%

660-679

$0 Vol.

31%

680-699

$0 Vol.

31%

700-719

$0 Vol.

31%

720-739

$0 Vol.

31%

740-759

$0 Vol.

31%

760-779

$0 Vol.

31%

780-799

$0 Vol.

31%

800-839

$0 Vol.

31%

840-879

$0 Vol.

31%

880-919

$0 Vol.

31%

920-959

$0 Vol.

31%

960-999

$0 Vol.

31%

1000+

$0 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s October 2026 tweet volume remains highly uncertain, with Polymarket traders assigning nearly identical implied probabilities across dozens of ranges because his posting rate fluctuates sharply with business demands, platform priorities, and external events. Recent data shows averages of 40–55 posts per day, driven by quick reactions to news, AI developments, and X-related commentary, yet spikes or slowdowns occur during intense Tesla or SpaceX periods. Key swing factors for October include any major product launches, regulatory developments, or sustained political engagement that could either amplify or suppress activity. Without clear catalysts visible months ahead, the market reflects broad dispersion rather than a narrow consensus.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$11
終了日
2026/11/01
マーケット開始日
Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s October 2026 tweet volume remains highly uncertain, with Polymarket traders assigning nearly identical implied probabilities across dozens of ranges because his posting rate fluctuates sharply with business demands, platform priorities, and external events. Recent data shows averages of 40–55 posts per day, driven by quick reactions to news, AI developments, and X-related commentary, yet spikes or slowdowns occur during intense Tesla or SpaceX periods. Key swing factors for October include any major product launches, regulatory developments, or sustained political engagement that could either amplify or suppress activity. Without clear catalysts visible months ahead, the market reflects broad dispersion rather than a narrow consensus.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$11
終了日
2026/11/01
マーケット開始日
Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

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よくある質問

「イーロン・マスクが2026年10月にツイートしましたか?」はPolymarket上の46+個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「60-79」で31%、次いで「80-99」が31%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、31¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に31%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「イーロン・マスクが2026年10月にツイートしましたか?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Aug 24, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「イーロン・マスクが2026年10月にツイートしましたか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている46+個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「イーロン・マスクが2026年10月にツイートしましたか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「60-79」で31%であり、市場がこの結果に31%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「80-99」で31%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イーロン・マスクが2026年10月にツイートしましたか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。