Recent earnings highlighted robust iPhone sales but weak forward guidance tied to rising memory costs, tempering near-term growth expectations and contributing to post-report stock volatility around the $310 level. Traders weigh Apple's deliberate on-device AI rollout—highlighted by the June WWDC unveiling of enhanced Apple Intelligence and a deeply integrated Siri—against faster progress from competitors, alongside services expansion and Vision Pro ecosystem momentum. With market-implied odds tightly clustered in the $4.5T–$5.5T range, outcomes hinge on execution of the fall iPhone cycle, broader AI adoption metrics, and macroeconomic factors influencing premium hardware demand through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.50〜5.00兆ドル 35%
4.00兆～4.50兆ドル 31%
5.00〜5.50兆ドル 29%
3.50〜4.00兆ドル 25%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
3.50兆ドル未満
18%
3.50〜4.00兆ドル
25%
4.00兆～4.50兆ドル
29%
4.50〜5.00兆ドル
31%
5.00〜5.50兆ドル
29%
5.50〜6.00兆ドル
18%
6.00兆ドル以上
11%
4.50〜5.00兆ドル 35%
4.00兆～4.50兆ドル 31%
5.00〜5.50兆ドル 29%
3.50〜4.00兆ドル 25%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
3.50兆ドル未満
$33 Vol.
18%
3.50〜4.00兆ドル
$0 Vol.
25%
4.00兆～4.50兆ドル
$42 Vol.
29%
4.50〜5.00兆ドル
$55 Vol.
31%
5.00〜5.50兆ドル
$0 Vol.
29%
5.50〜6.00兆ドル
$0 Vol.
18%
6.00兆ドル以上
$26 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Recent earnings highlighted robust iPhone sales but weak forward guidance tied to rising memory costs, tempering near-term growth expectations and contributing to post-report stock volatility around the $310 level. Traders weigh Apple's deliberate on-device AI rollout—highlighted by the June WWDC unveiling of enhanced Apple Intelligence and a deeply integrated Siri—against faster progress from competitors, alongside services expansion and Vision Pro ecosystem momentum. With market-implied odds tightly clustered in the $4.5T–$5.5T range, outcomes hinge on execution of the fall iPhone cycle, broader AI adoption metrics, and macroeconomic factors influencing premium hardware demand through year-end.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
マーケット開始日： Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ET
音量
$155終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Recent earnings highlighted robust iPhone sales but weak forward guidance tied to rising memory costs, tempering near-term growth expectations and contributing to post-report stock volatility around the $310 level. Traders weigh Apple's deliberate on-device AI rollout—highlighted by the June WWDC unveiling of enhanced Apple Intelligence and a deeply integrated Siri—against faster progress from competitors, alongside services expansion and Vision Pro ecosystem momentum. With market-implied odds tightly clustered in the $4.5T–$5.5T range, outcomes hinge on execution of the fall iPhone cycle, broader AI adoption metrics, and macroeconomic factors influencing premium hardware demand through year-end.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
音量
$155終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent earnings highlighted robust iPhone sales but weak forward guidance tied to rising memory costs, tempering near-term growth expectations and contributing to post-report stock volatility around the $310 level. Traders weigh Apple's deliberate on-device AI rollout—highlighted by the June WWDC unveiling of enhanced Apple Intelligence and a deeply integrated Siri—against faster progress from competitors, alongside services expansion and Vision Pro ecosystem momentum. With market-implied odds tightly clustered in the $4.5T–$5.5T range, outcomes hinge on execution of the fall iPhone cycle, broader AI adoption metrics, and macroeconomic factors influencing premium hardware demand through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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