Google holds a 96% market-implied probability of finishing third in OpenRouter token share for the week of September 7 due to sustained Gemini 3.8 Flash volume and the lab’s structural distribution advantages across developer workflows. Recent rankings show Google models capturing meaningful share amid a broader field, supported by consistent multimodal and long-context capabilities that appeal to agentic and coding use cases. Strong consensus reflects traders’ view that established US labs retain an edge in reliability and integration even as open-weight Chinese providers expand. A surge in DeepSeek, Tencent, or Z.ai volume from cheaper Flash variants could still displace Google if those labs exceed recent daily trends through the week’s end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Google 96%
Meta 1.7%
xAI 1.7%
Anthropic 1.6%

96%

Meta
2%

xAI
2%

Anthropic
2%

MiniMax
2%

Qwen
2%

DeepSeek
2%

Nvidia
1%

Z.ai
1%

OpenAI
1%

テンセント
1%

Xiaomi
1%
Google 96%
Meta 1.7%
xAI 1.7%
Anthropic 1.6%

96%

Meta
2%

xAI
2%

Anthropic
2%

MiniMax
2%

Qwen
2%

DeepSeek
2%

Nvidia
1%

Z.ai
1%

OpenAI
1%

テンセント
1%

Xiaomi
1%
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
マーケット開始日: Sep 11, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Google holds a 96% market-implied probability of finishing third in OpenRouter token share for the week of September 7 due to sustained Gemini 3.8 Flash volume and the lab’s structural distribution advantages across developer workflows. Recent rankings show Google models capturing meaningful share amid a broader field, supported by consistent multimodal and long-context capabilities that appeal to agentic and coding use cases. Strong consensus reflects traders’ view that established US labs retain an edge in reliability and integration even as open-weight Chinese providers expand. A surge in DeepSeek, Tencent, or Z.ai volume from cheaper Flash variants could still displace Google if those labs exceed recent daily trends through the week’s end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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