**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflecting the infrequent cadence of authoritative revisions to the underlying remaining carbon budget.** The clock (climateclock.world) anchors its July 22, 2029 deadline to the Mercator Research Institute's calculation, itself based on the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 carbon budget estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 (for a 67% chance of limiting warming) divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Recent observational data from the Global Carbon Project and 2026 stocktakes confirm emissions continuing near or above that rate, with no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge sufficient to trigger an immediate recalculation or clock reset. The clock typically updates annually (or less frequently) to incorporate the latest global CO₂ emissions trends and warming rates; historical shifts, such as the move to July 2029 by March 2026, have aligned with major data releases rather than routine fluctuations. No major new IPCC assessment or equivalent comprehensive revision is scheduled before late 2026 that would materially alter the budget enough to shift the displayed deadline by the required threshold (more than 30 days earlier or later than July 22, 2029). While updated model runs, a surprise Global Carbon Project revision, or unexpected emissions surge could still prompt an earlier adjustment, current conditions and release timelines support stability through year-end. This market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessment of these scientific update cycles and data stability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa scadenza di 1,5° C dell'orologio climatico cambierà entro...?
La scadenza di 1,5° C dell'orologio climatico cambierà entro...?
10% probabilità
$12,385 Vol.
$12,385 Vol.
1 gen 2027
10% probabilità
$12,385 Vol.
$12,385 Vol.
1 gen 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflecting the infrequent cadence of authoritative revisions to the underlying remaining carbon budget.**
The clock (climateclock.world) anchors its July 22, 2029 deadline to the Mercator Research Institute's calculation, itself based on the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 carbon budget estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 (for a 67% chance of limiting warming) divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Recent observational data from the Global Carbon Project and 2026 stocktakes confirm emissions continuing near or above that rate, with no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge sufficient to trigger an immediate recalculation or clock reset.
The clock typically updates annually (or less frequently) to incorporate the latest global CO₂ emissions trends and warming rates; historical shifts, such as the move to July 2029 by March 2026, have aligned with major data releases rather than routine fluctuations. No major new IPCC assessment or equivalent comprehensive revision is scheduled before late 2026 that would materially alter the budget enough to shift the displayed deadline by the required threshold (more than 30 days earlier or later than July 22, 2029).
While updated model runs, a surprise Global Carbon Project revision, or unexpected emissions surge could still prompt an earlier adjustment, current conditions and release timelines support stability through year-end. This market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessment of these scientific update cycles and data stability.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Mercato aperto: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$12,385Data di fine
31 dic 2029Mercato aperto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflecting the infrequent cadence of authoritative revisions to the underlying remaining carbon budget.**
The clock (climateclock.world) anchors its July 22, 2029 deadline to the Mercator Research Institute's calculation, itself based on the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 carbon budget estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 (for a 67% chance of limiting warming) divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Recent observational data from the Global Carbon Project and 2026 stocktakes confirm emissions continuing near or above that rate, with no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge sufficient to trigger an immediate recalculation or clock reset.
The clock typically updates annually (or less frequently) to incorporate the latest global CO₂ emissions trends and warming rates; historical shifts, such as the move to July 2029 by March 2026, have aligned with major data releases rather than routine fluctuations. No major new IPCC assessment or equivalent comprehensive revision is scheduled before late 2026 that would materially alter the budget enough to shift the displayed deadline by the required threshold (more than 30 days earlier or later than July 22, 2029).
While updated model runs, a surprise Global Carbon Project revision, or unexpected emissions surge could still prompt an earlier adjustment, current conditions and release timelines support stability through year-end. This market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessment of these scientific update cycles and data stability.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$12,385Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflecting the infrequent cadence of authoritative revisions to the underlying remaining carbon budget.** The clock (climateclock.world) anchors its July 22, 2029 deadline to the Mercator Research Institute's calculation, itself based on the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 carbon budget estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 (for a 67% chance of limiting warming) divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Recent observational data from the Global Carbon Project and 2026 stocktakes confirm emissions continuing near or above that rate, with no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge sufficient to trigger an immediate recalculation or clock reset. The clock typically updates annually (or less frequently) to incorporate the latest global CO₂ emissions trends and warming rates; historical shifts, such as the move to July 2029 by March 2026, have aligned with major data releases rather than routine fluctuations. No major new IPCC assessment or equivalent comprehensive revision is scheduled before late 2026 that would materially alter the budget enough to shift the displayed deadline by the required threshold (more than 30 days earlier or later than July 22, 2029). While updated model runs, a surprise Global Carbon Project revision, or unexpected emissions surge could still prompt an earlier adjustment, current conditions and release timelines support stability through year-end. This market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessment of these scientific update cycles and data stability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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