Recent seismic activity underscores ongoing global tectonics, with multiple magnitude 7+ events recorded by the USGS this year, including a 7.8 offshore Philippines in June, a 7.7 near Indonesia on August 14, and a 7.4 in western Colombia on August 10. No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred worldwide in 2026 to date, consistent with the historical average of roughly one to two such events annually across all subduction zones and fault systems monitored by agencies like the USGS. The remaining six weeks to September 30 represent a narrow window where an 8.0+ event would require rapid rupture along a major plate boundary, though current data show no anomalous foreshock patterns or strain accumulation signals exceeding baseline rates. Traders should monitor real-time USGS catalogs for any new M7+ detections or model updates from regional networks, as these directly inform resolution thresholds on the moment magnitude scale.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanto forte si verificherà un terremoto in tutto il mondo entro il 30 settembre?
Quanto forte si verificherà un terremoto in tutto il mondo entro il 30 settembre?
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
6.5+
95%
7.0+
81%
7.5+
43%
8.0+
18%
8.5+
4%
9.0+
4%
$2,250 Vol.
6.5+
$21 Vol.
95%
7.0+
$930 Vol.
81%
7.5+
$444 Vol.
43%
8.0+
$856 Vol.
18%
8.5+
$0 Vol.
4%
9.0+
$0 Vol.
4%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic activity underscores ongoing global tectonics, with multiple magnitude 7+ events recorded by the USGS this year, including a 7.8 offshore Philippines in June, a 7.7 near Indonesia on August 14, and a 7.4 in western Colombia on August 10. No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred worldwide in 2026 to date, consistent with the historical average of roughly one to two such events annually across all subduction zones and fault systems monitored by agencies like the USGS. The remaining six weeks to September 30 represent a narrow window where an 8.0+ event would require rapid rupture along a major plate boundary, though current data show no anomalous foreshock patterns or strain accumulation signals exceeding baseline rates. Traders should monitor real-time USGS catalogs for any new M7+ detections or model updates from regional networks, as these directly inform resolution thresholds on the moment magnitude scale.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$2,250Data di fine
3 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic activity underscores ongoing global tectonics, with multiple magnitude 7+ events recorded by the USGS this year, including a 7.8 offshore Philippines in June, a 7.7 near Indonesia on August 14, and a 7.4 in western Colombia on August 10. No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred worldwide in 2026 to date, consistent with the historical average of roughly one to two such events annually across all subduction zones and fault systems monitored by agencies like the USGS. The remaining six weeks to September 30 represent a narrow window where an 8.0+ event would require rapid rupture along a major plate boundary, though current data show no anomalous foreshock patterns or strain accumulation signals exceeding baseline rates. Traders should monitor real-time USGS catalogs for any new M7+ detections or model updates from regional networks, as these directly inform resolution thresholds on the moment magnitude scale.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Volume
$2,250Data di fine
3 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic activity underscores ongoing global tectonics, with multiple magnitude 7+ events recorded by the USGS this year, including a 7.8 offshore Philippines in June, a 7.7 near Indonesia on August 14, and a 7.4 in western Colombia on August 10. No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred worldwide in 2026 to date, consistent with the historical average of roughly one to two such events annually across all subduction zones and fault systems monitored by agencies like the USGS. The remaining six weeks to September 30 represent a narrow window where an 8.0+ event would require rapid rupture along a major plate boundary, though current data show no anomalous foreshock patterns or strain accumulation signals exceeding baseline rates. Traders should monitor real-time USGS catalogs for any new M7+ detections or model updates from regional networks, as these directly inform resolution thresholds on the moment magnitude scale.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Ci saranno esattamente 0 terremoti di magnitudo 6,5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 17 agosto al 23 agosto?
47%
Sì
Ci saranno 6 o meno terremoti di magnitudo 5,5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 17 al 23 agosto?
22%
Sì
Ci saranno tra 14 e 16 terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore in tutto il mondo nel 2026?
40%
Sì
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