Recent El Niño intensification in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +1.5°C, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for August 2026 global surface temperature anomalies clustered near 1.34–1.45°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows July 2026 tying prior record warmth at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with ocean heat content sustaining high values into August amid developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Long-term anthropogenic forcing underpins the elevated baseline, while short-term atmospheric variability and forecast model spread around peak El Niño timing create the narrow probability margins across bins. Updated seasonal outlooks and early August observational data will refine resolution thresholds in coming weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAgosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC) (COLPI PIÙ ALTI)
Agosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC) (COLPI PIÙ ALTI)
>1.45ºC 41%
1.30–1.33ºC 40%
1.34–1.37ºC 40%
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
<1.30ºC
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
40%
1.34–1.37ºC
40%
1.38–1.41ºC
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
40%
>1.45ºC
41%
>1.45ºC 41%
1.30–1.33ºC 40%
1.34–1.37ºC 40%
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
>1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño intensification in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +1.5°C, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for August 2026 global surface temperature anomalies clustered near 1.34–1.45°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows July 2026 tying prior record warmth at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with ocean heat content sustaining high values into August amid developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Long-term anthropogenic forcing underpins the elevated baseline, while short-term atmospheric variability and forecast model spread around peak El Niño timing create the narrow probability margins across bins. Updated seasonal outlooks and early August observational data will refine resolution thresholds in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño intensification in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +1.5°C, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for August 2026 global surface temperature anomalies clustered near 1.34–1.45°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows July 2026 tying prior record warmth at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with ocean heat content sustaining high values into August amid developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Long-term anthropogenic forcing underpins the elevated baseline, while short-term atmospheric variability and forecast model spread around peak El Niño timing create the narrow probability margins across bins. Updated seasonal outlooks and early August observational data will refine resolution thresholds in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño intensification in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +1.5°C, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for August 2026 global surface temperature anomalies clustered near 1.34–1.45°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows July 2026 tying prior record warmth at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with ocean heat content sustaining high values into August amid developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Long-term anthropogenic forcing underpins the elevated baseline, while short-term atmospheric variability and forecast model spread around peak El Niño timing create the narrow probability margins across bins. Updated seasonal outlooks and early August observational data will refine resolution thresholds in coming weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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