Traders see the tightest clustering around 80–119 tornadoes for August 2026 because summer jet-stream retreat and variable Gulf moisture create genuine uncertainty in convective parameters. Key differentiators include the strength and position of mid-level shear, which often weakens in August, versus lingering atmospheric instability (CAPE) fueled by warm, humid air masses. La Niña phases historically boost activity by enhancing the temperature gradient and storm organization, while neutral or El Niño conditions suppress it. With the month just beginning, short-term model runs on frontal passages and any tropical moisture intrusions will likely shift implied probabilities before resolution criteria—monthly Storm Prediction Center counts—are finalized.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti tornado ci sono stati negli Stati Uniti nell'agosto 2026?
Quanti tornado ci sono stati negli Stati Uniti nell'agosto 2026?
<40 26%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
80-99 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
<40
15%
40–59
14%
60-79
25%
80-99
24%
100–119
25%
120–139
17%
140-169
16%
170–199
4%
200+
4%
<40 26%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
80-99 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
<40
$60 Vol.
15%
40–59
$85 Vol.
14%
60-79
$60 Vol.
25%
80-99
$52 Vol.
24%
100–119
$52 Vol.
25%
120–139
$52 Vol.
17%
140-169
$52 Vol.
16%
170–199
$14 Vol.
4%
200+
$113 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders see the tightest clustering around 80–119 tornadoes for August 2026 because summer jet-stream retreat and variable Gulf moisture create genuine uncertainty in convective parameters. Key differentiators include the strength and position of mid-level shear, which often weakens in August, versus lingering atmospheric instability (CAPE) fueled by warm, humid air masses. La Niña phases historically boost activity by enhancing the temperature gradient and storm organization, while neutral or El Niño conditions suppress it. With the month just beginning, short-term model runs on frontal passages and any tropical moisture intrusions will likely shift implied probabilities before resolution criteria—monthly Storm Prediction Center counts—are finalized.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$541Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders see the tightest clustering around 80–119 tornadoes for August 2026 because summer jet-stream retreat and variable Gulf moisture create genuine uncertainty in convective parameters. Key differentiators include the strength and position of mid-level shear, which often weakens in August, versus lingering atmospheric instability (CAPE) fueled by warm, humid air masses. La Niña phases historically boost activity by enhancing the temperature gradient and storm organization, while neutral or El Niño conditions suppress it. With the month just beginning, short-term model runs on frontal passages and any tropical moisture intrusions will likely shift implied probabilities before resolution criteria—monthly Storm Prediction Center counts—are finalized.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$541Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the tightest clustering around 80–119 tornadoes for August 2026 because summer jet-stream retreat and variable Gulf moisture create genuine uncertainty in convective parameters. Key differentiators include the strength and position of mid-level shear, which often weakens in August, versus lingering atmospheric instability (CAPE) fueled by warm, humid air masses. La Niña phases historically boost activity by enhancing the temperature gradient and storm organization, while neutral or El Niño conditions suppress it. With the month just beginning, short-term model runs on frontal passages and any tropical moisture intrusions will likely shift implied probabilities before resolution criteria—monthly Storm Prediction Center counts—are finalized.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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