Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil holds a strong position in Wisconsin's 1st congressional district, where the partisan voting index sits at R+2 and he secured 54 percent in the prior cycle. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 73.5 percent reflects this incumbency advantage, limited Democratic name recognition, and the absence of major recent shifts such as map changes or scandals. The Democratic primary on August 11 features candidates including Mitchell Berman, Miguel Aranda, and Lorenzo Santos, with one early poll showing Steil ahead of Berman by nine points. A competitive general election remains possible if Democrats consolidate support in Racine and Milwaukee suburbs, though the district's structural lean and Steil's established campaign infrastructure continue to anchor current implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWI-01 House Election Winner
WI-01 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Republican Party
74%
Democratic Party
26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Republican Party
$3,588 Vol.
74%
Democratic Party
$3,589 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil holds a strong position in Wisconsin's 1st congressional district, where the partisan voting index sits at R+2 and he secured 54 percent in the prior cycle. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 73.5 percent reflects this incumbency advantage, limited Democratic name recognition, and the absence of major recent shifts such as map changes or scandals. The Democratic primary on August 11 features candidates including Mitchell Berman, Miguel Aranda, and Lorenzo Santos, with one early poll showing Steil ahead of Berman by nine points. A competitive general election remains possible if Democrats consolidate support in Racine and Milwaukee suburbs, though the district's structural lean and Steil's established campaign infrastructure continue to anchor current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$7,177Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil holds a strong position in Wisconsin's 1st congressional district, where the partisan voting index sits at R+2 and he secured 54 percent in the prior cycle. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 73.5 percent reflects this incumbency advantage, limited Democratic name recognition, and the absence of major recent shifts such as map changes or scandals. The Democratic primary on August 11 features candidates including Mitchell Berman, Miguel Aranda, and Lorenzo Santos, with one early poll showing Steil ahead of Berman by nine points. A competitive general election remains possible if Democrats consolidate support in Racine and Milwaukee suburbs, though the district's structural lean and Steil's established campaign infrastructure continue to anchor current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,177Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil holds a strong position in Wisconsin's 1st congressional district, where the partisan voting index sits at R+2 and he secured 54 percent in the prior cycle. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 73.5 percent reflects this incumbency advantage, limited Democratic name recognition, and the absence of major recent shifts such as map changes or scandals. The Democratic primary on August 11 features candidates including Mitchell Berman, Miguel Aranda, and Lorenzo Santos, with one early poll showing Steil ahead of Berman by nine points. A competitive general election remains possible if Democrats consolidate support in Racine and Milwaukee suburbs, though the district's structural lean and Steil's established campaign infrastructure continue to anchor current implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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