Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to a GPT-5.6 release between June 22 and 28, driven primarily by OpenAI’s accelerated 5.x cadence since GPT-5.5 launched on April 23 and a mid-May canary routing entry spotted in Codex backend logs. With GPT-5.5 still receiving incremental updates through late May and no official announcement or system card yet, the market sees limited chance of a drop in the current week. Competitive pressure from Anthropic models and typical pre-release testing timelines reinforce the late-June window, though product timelines remain fluid and subject to last-minute shifts in engineering or safety reviews.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWhen will GPT-5.6 be released?
When will GPT-5.6 be released?
June 22–June 28 65.5%
Not released by June 28 28.1%
June 15–June 21 4%
June 8–June 14 <1%
$187,339 Vol.
$187,339 Vol.
28 giu 2026
June 8–June 14
<1%
June 15–June 21
4%
June 22–June 28
66%
Not released by June 28
28%
June 22–June 28 65.5%
Not released by June 28 28.1%
June 15–June 21 4%
June 8–June 14 <1%
$187,339 Vol.
$187,339 Vol.
28 giu 2026
June 8–June 14
$46,734 Vol.
<1%
June 15–June 21
$34,308 Vol.
4%
June 22–June 28
$26,463 Vol.
66%
Not released by June 28
$37,407 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to a GPT-5.6 release between June 22 and 28, driven primarily by OpenAI’s accelerated 5.x cadence since GPT-5.5 launched on April 23 and a mid-May canary routing entry spotted in Codex backend logs. With GPT-5.5 still receiving incremental updates through late May and no official announcement or system card yet, the market sees limited chance of a drop in the current week. Competitive pressure from Anthropic models and typical pre-release testing timelines reinforce the late-June window, though product timelines remain fluid and subject to last-minute shifts in engineering or safety reviews.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$187,339Data di fine
28 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to a GPT-5.6 release between June 22 and 28, driven primarily by OpenAI’s accelerated 5.x cadence since GPT-5.5 launched on April 23 and a mid-May canary routing entry spotted in Codex backend logs. With GPT-5.5 still receiving incremental updates through late May and no official announcement or system card yet, the market sees limited chance of a drop in the current week. Competitive pressure from Anthropic models and typical pre-release testing timelines reinforce the late-June window, though product timelines remain fluid and subject to last-minute shifts in engineering or safety reviews.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$187,339Data di fine
28 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to a GPT-5.6 release between June 22 and 28, driven primarily by OpenAI’s accelerated 5.x cadence since GPT-5.5 launched on April 23 and a mid-May canary routing entry spotted in Codex backend logs. With GPT-5.5 still receiving incremental updates through late May and no official announcement or system card yet, the market sees limited chance of a drop in the current week. Competitive pressure from Anthropic models and typical pre-release testing timelines reinforce the late-June window, though product timelines remain fluid and subject to last-minute shifts in engineering or safety reviews.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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