**Trader sentiment on U.S. nuclear explosive testing by late 2026 remains subdued, with implied probabilities at 1-5% across near-term dates.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by Beijing (including a claimed 2020 event at Lop Nur), briefly elevated concerns about ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations rather than yield-producing detonations. No full-scale nuclear explosive test has occurred, and officials continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification. Upcoming budget decisions, congressional debates over testing prohibitions, and any new intelligence on foreign activities could influence positioning, though current signals point to sustained restraint through diplomatic signaling rather than operational resumption.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$795,287 Vol.
31 dic 2026
30 settembre 2026
1%
31 dicembre 2026
5%
$795,287 Vol.
30 settembre 2026
$57,555 Vol.
1%
31 dicembre 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Trader sentiment on U.S. nuclear explosive testing by late 2026 remains subdued, with implied probabilities at 1-5% across near-term dates.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by Beijing (including a claimed 2020 event at Lop Nur), briefly elevated concerns about ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations rather than yield-producing detonations. No full-scale nuclear explosive test has occurred, and officials continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification. Upcoming budget decisions, congressional debates over testing prohibitions, and any new intelligence on foreign activities could influence positioning, though current signals point to sustained restraint through diplomatic signaling rather than operational resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,287Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Trader sentiment on U.S. nuclear explosive testing by late 2026 remains subdued, with implied probabilities at 1-5% across near-term dates.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by Beijing (including a claimed 2020 event at Lop Nur), briefly elevated concerns about ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations rather than yield-producing detonations. No full-scale nuclear explosive test has occurred, and officials continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification. Upcoming budget decisions, congressional debates over testing prohibitions, and any new intelligence on foreign activities could influence positioning, though current signals point to sustained restraint through diplomatic signaling rather than operational resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,287Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Trader sentiment on U.S. nuclear explosive testing by late 2026 remains subdued, with implied probabilities at 1-5% across near-term dates.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by Beijing (including a claimed 2020 event at Lop Nur), briefly elevated concerns about ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations rather than yield-producing detonations. No full-scale nuclear explosive test has occurred, and officials continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification. Upcoming budget decisions, congressional debates over testing prohibitions, and any new intelligence on foreign activities could influence positioning, though current signals point to sustained restraint through diplomatic signaling rather than operational resumption.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti